The big betting races of the weekend were the Betfred Eider Chase at Newcastle and the Betdaq Handicap Chase at Kempton. The former was won by the Nicky Richards trained Baywing who dug into his bottomless reserves of stamina to win by a comfortable four lengths at the finish. It was another big race win for the northern trainer, following on from the successes of Guitar Pete and Simply Ned early in the season.
The Fergal O’Brien trained Master Dee was a good winner of the Betdaq Handicap Chase. The consistent 9-year-old, who has never been out of the first three, was having his first start since November and was given a good ride by jockey Barry Geraghty. The drying ground was very much in the winner’s favour, as was the Kempton's flat track. He now looks set for Aintree rather than Cheltenham which backs up the track theory.
The performance of the weekend came from the Alan King trained Redicean who jumped slickly through the race and showed too much speed for his rivals when going clear after the final hurdle. The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle has been a decent trial for next month’s Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in the past and it’s not surprising that the winner’s odds for that race were cut. I am not sure he will win the race, but he’s clearly now a strong contender.
Cheltenham Festival: Follow the Right Favourites
Backing favourites isn’t for everyone. But if you want some steady profits added to your betting banks, the Cheltenham Festival is one of those meetings where it can be profitable. But which are the favourites that you should be looking at and which should you avoid.
Positive:
Since 2013 clear favourites have produced the following set of results:
37 runner’s winners from 124 runners 30% -19.61 A/E 0.99 66 placed 53%.
Looking at the results for Grade 1 and 2 races, has produced:
31 winners from 67 runners 46% +16.13 A/E 1.2 47 placed 70%
So, concentrating on the best races at the Festival is the way to go and with addition of a couple of logical filters:
Headgear: None
Favourites Last Race
29 winners from 54 runners 54% +24.75 A/E 1.32 40 placed 74%
Backing all the above qualifiers would have seen you make a profit at each of the last five Festival’s and a 46% ROI is a great return for betting on favourites.
Negative:
Meanwhile backing favourites in Festival handicaps has offered no returns in the past five seasons:
2 winners from 60 runners 3% -50.5 A/E 0.19 17 placed 28% (ExpWins 10.28)
The last favourite to win at Festival was Fingal Bay who was sent off at odds of 9/2 when winning the Pertemps Network Final in 2014, he only won by a nose that day and many consider he was a slightly fortunate winner.
In next week’s column, I will be looking at a couple of Cheltenham Festival handicap angles.
Monday Racing & Selections
Punters will be on weather watch this week with “Beast from the East” set to bring sub-zero temperatures and drop significant accumulations of snow to parts of the UK and Ireland. If the forecasts are right we are unlikely to be seeing much racing until early next week.
Both Monday’s turf meetings are subject to precautionary morning inspections, but the two all-weather meetings set for Lingfield and Wolverhampton should be fine.
Last week’s Monday selection Petite Power ran well when a close-up second at Lingfield. But at least one of the recent tracker horses has been doing the business with Eljaddaaf (8/1) winning at Lingfield on Friday, to follow up his Chelmsford win.
This week I have two selections for you.
Lingfield
3:30 – The 8-year-old Clement is on a long losing run and hasn’t got into the winner’s enclosure since February 2016 but he was in good form then winning three successive C&D handicaps. He now races off a 7lb lower mark than for the last of those wins and with Ben Robinson taking off another 5lb he looks a well handicapped horse. There was a hint three starts back at Wolverhampton that he can still win a race like this.
Clement – 11/2
Wolverhampton
8:15 – Tropics has bounced back to form on the all-weather this winter winning over C&D three starts back and last time out at Chelmsford. He made all to win at Chelmsford but won’t get an uncontested lead with Reflektor in the field, but he doesn’t have to lead. Up 3lb for that last win and a up a notch in class makes life harder for the 10-year-old but in 2015 he was only beaten a nose in the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket. He’s nowhere near that level now but a race like this could still be winnable given his recent form.
Tropics – 4/1
Finally, I am now on Twitter and you can follow me on there for updates. Search for Eyecatcher_Pro or Socialist Tipster.
All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable week’s betting.
You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here