Good morning all,
Three all-weather meetings today and I'll be at Southwell later on. Possibly working, but more likely a day out. Which is unusual for me these days!
Trying to find a few pointers towards a winner or two today and I've shared what could be the better ones with you on the main piece.
De Little Engine (Alex Dunn) – 2.10 Lingfield
Having his first run for Alexandra Dun today (after leaving Kevin Ryan) and we know from past experience that the yard know how to land a gamble with one. And that could be first time up – over the past year the yard are 3-27 with horses first time up for them and possibly just as pertintently, Liam Keniry, who rides today. is 4-15 for the yard as well. With conditions ideal (a mile on the sand is perfect) he's worth keeping an eye on, especially if there's a few quid around for him.
Flavius Titus (Roger Varian) – 2.45 Lingfield
Those of you that like a short one need look no further than Flavius Titus, who not only looks the sort to make a decent three-year-old (improved on each of his three runs last year) but has an excellent statistic going for him – Roger Varian has a really good record first time up in handicaps overall (15 winners from 50 runners last year) but it's really good at Lingfield, with a 27% strike rate here over the last 5 years when he introduces them into handicaps. The form of that win looks solid – we haven't seen the second or third out since but the fourth won next time out – and Flavius Titus can take this on the way to better things.
Falcao (John Butler) – 4.25 Southwell
At first glance, Falcao might not appear to have a lot going for him but he's undeniably well treated on the best of his form, and the two key stats here for me – firstly John Butler's record at bringing them back after a 60+ day absence – he's 17-94 for an 18% strike rate and if you'd backed them all to a quid, you're in front to the tune of some £115 thanks to a couple of big priced ones. Add in the booking of De Sousa, a jockey he doesn't use that much (he's 2 winners from 8 rides for the yard last 5 years) and Falcao looks a bit more attractive. He's had a couple of sighters here last year too and he easily outclass this lot.
Today's selection – Falcao 4.25 Southwell
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.