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Weekend Racing Review

Hi everyone,

Inside today's main piece I'm looking back at the weekend's big race action.

It's always a challenge when weather disrupts proceedings as it did last week. Punters had to be chameleon like on Saturday and switch their attention from the jumps to the all-weather. Either that or you don’t bet. In the end I took the former option. In hindsight I should have left it alone, but I didn’t.  

I had a few bets on Lingfield’s ITV card and managed to find a winner at 7/4!  I achieved a 25%-win strike rate on Saturday but with winners at 3/1 & 7/4, still managed to make a small loss on the day. It just goes to show you can be winning with one in four of your bets and still not make a profit. If you didn’t know already it’s all about the odds, you obtain.

Weekend Review

It was unfortunate that Saturday’s Ascot and Haydock’s jump cards were lost to freezing weather. However, it's good that Navan was able to race, providing some jumps action for terrestrial TV viewers to go alongside Lingfield’s all-weather card.

The rescheduling of Ascot’s Grade 1 Clarence House Chase to next Saturday’s Cheltenham Trials Day is a familiar situation, reminiscent of the previous year. However, the absence of the anticipated clash between El Fabiolo and Jonbon, due to the former's decision to race in the Dublin Racing Festival, is a disappointment.

I will skip Saturday’s racing as there wasn’t much worthy of further analysis.

Sunday Recap:
Lingfield

As anticipated Lingfield’s Winter Million card got the go ahead yesterday. It was an interesting enough card but more about the exposed than the unexposed.

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Given the frost sheets had been on for a week it was hard to say if the going description of good to soft would be correct or would it turn out to be a good deal softer?

The Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase had been moved from Friday’s abandoned card. It looked a good race on paper despite just the five runners.

Whether it was influenced by the soft ground or not, JPR One was surprisingly sent off at a generous 6/1 odds. Not that I’m complaining as it meant a nice profit on the day. 

The race itself had a dramatic start, with Matata jumping noticeably to the left at the first fence, causing interference and leading to the fall of the favorite Djelo.

JPR One, jumping more proficiently than in previous outings, maintained his composure and, despite idling on the run-in, had enough in reserve to secure victory over Matata.

Looking ahead, whilst I don’t see JPR One's beating Marine Nationale in the Arkle at the Festival. He’s the standout British contender among two-mile novice chasers. With the expectation that better ground will be more to his liking, he has the potential to secure a place in a likely small field Arkle.

L'Homme Presse is Back

L'Homme Presse, making his first appearance since a fall in last season’s King George VI Chase at Kempton, demonstrated his ability to perform well fresh by securing victory over Protektorat in the Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase. Kudos to the connections for earning £85,000 in was effectively a match. This successful return to action sets him on the path toward the Gold Cup. Widely regarded as the best staying British chaser, though uncertainties linger about his stamina over 3m 2f and the challenge posed by Galopin Des Champs, he is expected to be in close contention if his stamina holds.

Course specialist Movethechains took his Lingfield form figures to 111121 by securing a comfortable victory in the Surrey National. I had talked myself into backing him, alongside eventual runner-up Animal, to bounce back on his return to his favourite venue but some perplexing decision led me to opt for just one selection. Unfortunately, this choice proved a poor one. Had I chosen both contenders, I would now be ahead for the month.  As I keep saying, don’t be afraid to back two or even three runners in a race if the odds allow you to make a profit.

Thurles

Sunday’s big race wasn’t at Lingfield but at Thurles. The Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase saw Allaho bid for a third success in the race. His chance was enhanced by Envoi Allen being declared a non-runner due to coughing. Allaho ran out a comfortable winner, but I have to say it was a laboured success albeit on terrible ground.

What they were doing with stablemate Appreciate It one can only guess. He must be ridden from the front and once that didn’t happen Allaho wasn’t going to lose barring a mishap.

The concern now is whether the Thurles race has left a mark on Allaho as he sets his sights on another Ryanair Chase success at the Festival.

Ferns Lock won the Hunters Chase that concluded the Thurles card. The 7-year-old jumped well and is firmly on course for the Hunter Chase at the Festival. I was also taken with the performance of the runner-up Romeo Magico. The 6-year-old, only making his second start outside of point-to-point company, left a positive impression. With more experience under his belt, he is likely to improve, and the prospect of encountering better ground in the future could further enhance his capabilities. Keep an eye on Romeo Magico as he progresses in his racing career.

Monday Preview

Thankfully the cold weather has left our shores for the time being so the jumps action will return in earnest this week.

The racing week kicks off with a low-key start, featuring four meetings across Britain. Jumps cards are scheduled at Plumpton and Warwick, while all-weather racing take place at Kempton and Newcastle. Despite a total of 27 races only one offers a prize exceeding £8,000 for the winner.

Thankfully, as the week unfolds, the racing quality improves, culminating in a midweek highlight on Thursday—the prestigious Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park. Additionally, the anticipation builds for Cheltenham Trial's Day and a good card at Doncaster on Saturday, promising an escalation in the thrill and competition for fans of the sport.

I don't have any strong thoughts on today's racing so I'm not putting up a selection.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John

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