Good morning all,
As usual on a Tuesday, my thoughts on the past weekend's action, and there was plenty of it to review as well.
The weather is playing havoc with my plans already this week, but I did squeeze Fontwell in yesterday and there's a couple for trackers – I'll put those up tomorrow, might give me something to write about as Leicester and Haxham have already fallen by the roadside Wednesday.
Saturday’s big event was the Tingle Creek at Sandown, and beforehand it did look, after the defections of Douvan and Un De Sceaux (more on him later) a good opportunity for Fox Norton to cement a decent position in the Champion Chase market. Sadly, he rather fluffed his lines, with some scruffy leaps meaning that he was often in the wrong position at the wrong time. It was interesting to hear Mick Fitzgerald, who rarely criticizes a jockey, just about stop short of saying that Robbie Power got it wrong, but rather that “if he could ride that again…”. That’s about as near as Mick gets to saying “he got that wrong” but I do agree, he was constantly having to be chased into position and the jump at the Pond Fence rather sealed his fate. He kept trying and only went down half a length in the end but to my eyes, was never getting there.
However, talk of switching him up to 3m for the King George is surely premature. Bottom line here is that he’s narrowly gone down to an improving horse after getting a middling ride – let’s not be hasty here, he’s still a big player at 2m this season. As is the winner, Politologue, who is also starting to look the finished article – the promise has always been there but weak finishes have blighted his career. It would have been easy enough for him to chuck the towel in as Fox Norton got to his quarters but he battled on gamely.
Earlier in the day, Sceau Royal threw the Arkle market into a bit of a Tizz (sorry) by taking the Henry VIII Novices Chase. No fluke about it either, as he put in the best round of jumping and travelled like the winner from some way out. As to where he fits in the Arkle now, well, I believed he was probably open to less improvement than a few here, so I’m finding it hard to weigh up.
Brain Power’s jumping just let him down at key moments but it’s clear he has a massive engine – the mistake he made four out might have been enough for most horses to stop them but he was back on the bridle within three strides, and still had enough in the tank to be challenging two out. He was done for when unseating at the last but if he can cut the mistakes out – still time for him to learn – I still think he’s a big player in the Arkle.
My views on Finian’s Oscar were well documented before the race – I think he’s overrated by some way and he simply couldn’t go with these. It may be that 2m4f/3m will see him in a better light, but I have serious doubts about him, regardless of trip. He just doesn’t look a chaser and he found this hard work. We will see…
There was better news for the Tizzards in the opening Novice Hurdle where Ainchea, who had been the chatter at Cheltenham before his debut, looked very impressive in winning. He did plenty wrong here – a green jump at the first costing him ground (and immediately went 8-1 in running) and then making his ground up quickly enough between the last 2, but he found plenty to repel Whatswrongwithyou (who will come on for this, my paddock judge tells me) and looks a smart prospect.
Over at Aintree, Blaklion smashed them to pieces in the Becher, running an excellent trial for the National but I still think the Gold Cup is at the back of Nigel’s mind. And why wouldn’t it – he’s classy, great Cheltenham Festival record, and you can use the Gold Cup as a prep for the National as so many before him have done. The general 33-1 available for the top prize is probably about right rather than overpriced but I wouldn’t put anyone off, that’s for sure.
The Last Samuri ran an absolute stormer to finish second, giving the winner weight, and all roads will lead to Aintree for him this year. If he gets a more sympathetic ride this time around I think he goes very close. Tempted to have a win only bet at the 25s available, as he won’t be anywhere near that price on the day if he lines up. I shall think about that today and let you know!
You can also argue that Definitly Red also ran an excellent National trial just over an hour later when taking the Many Clouds Chase. As I said after Wetherby, where he just looked a bit out of his comfort zone, 3m looks an absolute bare minimum these days and this extra furlong and slower ground both played to his strengths. First off the bridle turning in, he simply ground down his rivals and despite Cloudy Dream (who is surely a 2m4f horse) looking a threat two out, he was soon seen off, and he came right away again in the final 200yds. However, a word of warning for those backing him for the National – connections were talking about the Betfair Bowl being a more likely target. They clearly think he’s classy, and I have to agree. He’ll need soft ground that day, though.
Cork on Sunday saw the reappearance of Ryanair winner Un De Sceaux, although it’s fair to say that conditions yesterday won’t be anything like he’ll encounter in March, with the ground virtually unraceable. In winning easily here he told us little more than he’s fine and still got four legs and a tail, yet bookmakers were quick to once again cut him for the Ryanair in March, which seems utterly ludicrous to me.
Meanwhile, over at Punchestown, Sizing John put in a performance in the John Durkan that once again showed that on the day, he’s always going to be a big gun, regardless of the opposition. He’s such a likeable horse, and once going past Djakadam before the home turn it was race over, with the runner-up having no answer. With so many Gold Cup contenders already fluffing their lines, Sizing John rightly takes his place at the head of the Gold Cup betting with this showing and may well be the one to beat again come March.
Only the sand stuff to concentrate on today, which wouldn't be my forte by any means, but I did see Kyllach Me‘s last run at Newcastle where he did a little better than the finishing position suggested as he was drawn on the far rail, and was sticking on again at the finish. His last couple of efforts should have straightened him out a bit fitness wise, he likes Wolverhampton (three wins and three places form 9 starts here), isn't badly drawn and has bounced back to form from nowhere before. At double figures, he'll do for me today.
Today's selection – Kyllach Me 4.50 Wolverhampton
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.