Good morning all,
Delighted to have nailed the first part of the Christmas big races, with Clan Des Obeaux winning as he liked yesterday, so can I follow that up and find the Welsh National winner as well? A harder race, of that there's no doubt, but the rewards are greater if I can! My thoughts and selection on the main piece.
When I look for the Welsh National winner, there tend to be three things I look for – one, ability to act in heavy ground, as it seems to be every year, two, abundant stamina and three, ability to act around Chepstow. I do count Chepstow as a specialist’s track and horses that run well here tend to come back and repeat the trick again. Bear in mind the race distance has now gone up – 3m6½f, so another 220 gruelling yards for everyone to cover. Will that make the difference? There’s a couple in the field that will certainly benefit from it.
So starting with the last named of those three points – who brings some track form to the table? Top weight Elegant Escape is an obvious starting point, having won the race with 9lb less on his back last year, and the extra furlong this year can’t be a bad thing, as all he does is stay. There was little wrong with his close third to De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke Trophy, giving over a stone to the winner, indeed that’s a performance that would mark him out as Gold Cup class. Possibly the ground had dried out a bit too much for him in this year’s GC, but this will be right up his street. Favourite he may well be, but he deserves that tag as he’s the class act of the field, and could be tough to beat.
Speaking of De Rasher Counter, we ought not forget that Now McGinty dished out a six-length beating to him at Chepstow back at the turn of the year. He then made Santini pull out all the stops to win at Sandown on his reappearance, and getting almost a stone from Elegant Escape brings him right into the equation. I have never hidden my admiration for the talents of Stuart Edmunds and Now McGinty is worthy of his place near the head of the market too. Elegant Escape is the proven class, but he could be the “unexposed” class angle.
Steely Addition, Truckers Lodge and Potters Corner all bring solid Chepstow form into the race as well, but at a price Virginia Chick makes a bit of appeal. He is 2-2 at Chepstow and this will be only his fourth chase start, so is open to improvement, and his form over fences so far reads well, in the main. His defeat of Commodore Barry at Exeter in particular was impressive, and it’s possible this trip could bring about more improvement, given the way he finishes off well over three miles (one of his half-brothers, Viking Blond, did nothing but stay, which gives a bit more hope). As I type this though, he’s also entered up in the handicap hurdle and the novices handicap chase on the card, so could go to any of those three races and be competitive. Keep an eye out. (Update – he goes for this. Hurrah!)
Those wanting to take a flyer on one at a (much) bigger price could do a lot worse than Looks Like Power at a whopping 100-1 with Bet Victor and Coral (both five places). The case for him revolves around his love of Chepstow, and one piece of form in particular. His record here reads 21135, all in soft/heavy ground, and his 17l thrashing of Zanstra et al here back in 2018 still sticks in the mind, not least because of the way he cruised up on the bit three out and won so effortlessly he barely knew he’d had a race. Now, it’s a long way from a winning a Class 4 handicap to this, which is why you’re getting the price, but there’s a fair chance he will stay, handles bad ground and showed enough on his seasonal comeback here three weeks ago to think he retains most of his ability. 100-1 is my sort of price! Yes, he’s out of the handicap but all the same, I think you’ll get some excitement for your money.
In conclusion, the two at the head of the market are very solid and hard to knock, but this is a big handicap with plenty that can happen and at bigger prices, Virginia Chick and Looks Like Power both carry a few of my Christmas quids. Let’s hope for a good, competitive race with them all coming back safely.
My selection – Virginia Chick (e/w, and Skybet going a very generous six places).
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.