Hi all,
In today’s main piece, I continue my look ahead to the weekend, focusing on Chepstow’s new three-day Welsh Racing Festival.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 2
Group 1 action returns to Newmarket on Saturday with the Dewhurst Stakes (3:00) taking centre stage. It headlines a strong card featuring three other Group races and the day’s big betting heat — the Cesarewitch Handicap (3:40).
ITV Racing will show the first five races from Newmarket plus three from York, including the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (3:15). It’s the final Flat meeting of the season at York — always a sign winter is closing in.
Down in Wales, the Welsh Racing Festival continues at Chepstow, where the Silver Trophy (3:20) is Saturday’s highlight. Sunday’s feature is the Dragonbet Welsh Champion Hurdle, returning to its original home after over a decade at Ffos Las.
It looks set to stay dry at Chepstow, so officials will likely water to maintain good ground. York should ride good, and Newmarket may edge towards the quicker side of good.
Welsh Racing Festival
The Dragonbet-sponsored Welsh Racing Festival is widely seen as the curtain-raiser to the jumps season. Once a two-day fixture, it’s now a three-day meeting. I wanted to see which trainers tend to strike early here.
Using Horseracebase as my guide, here’s what I found.
Since 2021, Paul Nicholls leads the way with eight winners — four clear of Sam Thomas. Yet backing all Nicholls runners blind would lose you £24.23 to a £1 level stake. Even those at 3/1 or shorter would have shown a small loss. So, while he’ll likely have winners, they tend to be overbet and no value.
Dan Skelton and Christian Williams have both sent plenty of runners but managed just two winners between them — both from Skelton’s yard. Those two were well-fancied, each returning 2/1 or shorter.
The better value might lie elsewhere. Trainers such as Kim Bailey, Harry Derham, Chris Gordon, Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, Alan King, Tom Lacey, Neil Mulholland, and Sam Thomas have fared best recently. Last year, they combined for 4 winners from 14 runners (+22.23), and the year before returned 6 winners from 12 (+23.75).
My focus remains on the Flat until Champions Day is done, but I’ll be watching Chepstow closely especially the above trainers.
As ever, past results are no guarantee of future success, so caution is wise given the small sample sizes.
Thursday Racing – Term Of Endearment the One to Beat at Bath
The day’s most valuable race is the Listed Beckford Stakes (2:30) at Bath. Term Of Endearment, back from a short break, tops the ratings and looks the one to beat from a low draw in stall six.
Fairy Glen, who returned from 11 months off at Salisbury, last month, should strip fitter now. She was fourth in this race last year on heavy ground, so drying conditions will suit.
Irish challenger Siege Of Troy, possibly didn’t stay the Ebor trip when 15th of 22 last time. With Oisin Murphy booked and her rating giving her every chance, she still commands respect.
In Friday’s column, I’ll be looking at some of the ITV Racing from Newmarket and York.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John