Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Group 1 William Hill Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. Plus, I've taken a look at a couple of Wednesday races at Newmarket and Kempton.
William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes – Doncaster
The Futurity Trophy Stakes is a prestigious Group 1 contest run over 1 mile for two-year-old’s.
First run in 1961 as the Timeform Gold Cup and for many years known as the Racing Post Trophy is the last Group 1 race of the British flat season
This race is often viewed as a major trial for future Classic contenders, particularly the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby. In recent years several winners of the Futurity Saxon Warrior (2017), Magna Grecia (2018), and Kameko (2019) won before landing the following season’s 2,000 Guineas.
Several horses have achieved the Futurity Trophy Stakes and Epsom Derby double, highlighting their top-class potential as two-year-olds and confirming their status as elite middle-distance performers at three.
Here are the notable horses that completed this prestigious double:
1. Camelot (2011 Futurity Stakes Trophy, 2012 Epsom Derby)
Camelot, trained by Aidan O’Brien, won the 2011 Futurity Trophy and followed it up by capturing the Epsom Derby in 2012. He went on to win the Irish Derby and narrowly missed out on the Triple Crown, finishing second in the St. Leger.
2. Authorized (2006 Futurity Stakes Trophy, 2007 Epsom Derby)
Authorized, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam, won the Futurity Trophy as a juvenile in 2006 before storming to victory in the 2007 Epsom Derby under Frankie Dettori. He was one of the top middle-distance horses of his generation.
3. High Chaparral (2001 Futurity Stakes Trophy, 2002 Epsom Derby)
Another star trained by Aidan O’Brien, High Chaparral claimed the 2001 Futurity Trophy and followed it with an emphatic win in the 2002 Epsom Derby. He also won the Irish Derby and later became a dual Breeders' Cup Turf champion.
4. Reference Point (1986 Futurity Stakes Trophy, 1987 Epsom Derby)
Trained by Sir Henry Cecil, Reference Point won the Futurity Trophy in 1986 and went on to dominate the Epsom Derby in 1987. He was also a winner of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and St. Leger, making him one of the best of his era.
5. Motivator (2004 Futurity Stakes Trophy, 2005 Epsom Derby)
Motivator, trained by Michael Bell, took the 2004 Futurity Trophy and then fulfilled his promise by winning the 2005 Epsom Derby. He was also runner-up in the Irish Champion Stakes and had a successful stud career.
These horses are part of a select group that managed to win both the Futurity Trophy as juveniles and the Epsom Derby the following year, confirming their early promise on the biggest stage in flat racing.
Trends
In 2019, the race moved to Newcastle after Doncaster was waterlogged. Analysing trends from 10 winners out of 90 runners, with 28 placing, shows we’re working with small sample sizes. However, it’s clear that favourites have performed well historically.
Trainer Insights
Aidan O’Brien stands out with 4 winners from 24 runners (-13.45) and 11 places. Meanwhile, Andrew Balding has 2 winners from 6 runners (+3.13). While O’Brien tends to enter multiple runners, blind backing isn’t advised. But, when he sends out clear favourites, the stats jump: 4 winners from 5 runners (+5.88), 5 places.
Additional Trends:
All the last ten winners had a win in one of their last three starts (0-16, 1 place for those without).
No winner has come from stall 1 (0-10, 3 places).
Every winner raced no further than 1 mile prior to the Futurity (0-12, 3 places for those that had).
Trends Verdict:
The sample sizes are small, so caution is advised. Yet, favourites, especially those trained by Aidan O’Brien, are worth a close look.
Contenders:
This year’s prize is worth £127,576 to the winner, and 19 juveniles remain at the final confirmation stage. The sponsor’s favourite is Wimbledon Hawkeye (4/1). After his impressive win at Newmarket in the Group 2 Royal Lodge, he looks like a prime candidate.
Eight of the 19 are trained by the O’Brien’s—Aidan has six, Joseph two. Delacroix (6/1), who won the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, is Aidan’s shortest-priced runner. Personally, I’ll only back O’Brien’s runners if they’re the clear favourite.
Royal Playwright (16/1) finished 1½ lengths behind Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Royal Lodge. He’s going the right way under Andrew Balding, and his odds offer value.
Last year’s winning trainer, Charlie Appleby, may run Anno Domini (10/1), who is 2-2. We haven’t seen him for 113 days, but he’s one to watch. From the Gosden yard, Detain (6/1) and Nebras (20/1) are also interesting. Detain is unbeaten in two Kempton races, while Nebras is a half-brother to Nashwa and recently made a winning debut at Newmarket.
Ralph Beckett has two entries: Matauri Bay (13/2) and longshot Seacruiser (33/1). Meanwhile, Seaplane (12/1) won impressively on soft ground at Newmarket and is fancied by some sharp punters.
Lastly, Benevento (33/1) looks to improve on his win in the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster last month. He’s another going the right way and He’s another going the right way shaped and should be suited by a mile.
Wednesday Racing
Newmarket offers an intriguing seven-race card as the season winds down. Over at Kempton, a competitive London Mile Series Qualifier (7:40) spices up the evening action. I’ve taken a quick look at one race from each meeting.
Newmarket – 4:05
Surveyor should be popular after her solid 3rd at Wolverhampton 18 days ago. Before that, she narrowly missed at Goodwood. With James Fanshawe in good form, she's in the mix.
Queen’s Reign was well beaten at Ascot in a Listed race last time. However, she looked improved when a 1 length 2nd of 7 at Newbury (soft).Tom Marquand takes the ride, and she’s has definite claims on her Newbury run.
Lunar Eclipse looked promising when winning here on debut last November on heavy ground. She didn’t fire in her only start this season in Listed Pretty Polly stakes in May. But she drops into handicaps now. Proven on soft going, she’s a contender.
Forever Blue has struggled since her Haydock win novice in June is another dropping in class in class. First-time blinkers could spark improvement, but they’ll need to.
Kempton – 7:40
Whitcombe Rockstar made it 4-7 over C&D with a strong win in this series final last month. He’s up 6lb, but his last run suggests he still has more to offer. The wide draw in stall 13 isn’t ideal, though.
Dolce Courage impressed in a Newcastle novice win a year ago and could be well treated on his handicap debut. However, his long absence raises concerns.
Fantasy Believer struggled on soft ground at Newbury last time but was strong when winning over 1m 3f at Southwell previously. He’s 3-11 over this C&D, with a good draw in stall 1, though will need a strong pace to win back down in trip.
Gorak has been consistent this season over 7f, aside from a poor run in the Bunbury Cup. His length 3rd at Chester 53 days ago, behind Two Tempting, came in a tougher race than this. He’s worth another shot at a mile, though stall 10 could be tricky for a prominent runner.
In tomorrow’s piece I’ll be telling you about Nicky Henderson horse who could take a high rank in the novice hurdles this season. Plus. I’ll continue to look ahead to the weekend’s racing at Cheltenham.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John