Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m previewing Saturday’s big handicap the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Newbury and there's some pointers for Huntingdon and Doncaster.
Newbury: William Hill Handicap Hurdle
There are 19 confirmed entries for Saturday’s feature handicap. It’s a race with serious history, formerly the Betfair Hurdle, the Gold Trophy, and for older readers, the Schweppes.
Despite the competing attentions of two Grade 2s on the card, this is the day’s most valuable race, with £87,219 to the winner.
At the time of writing this on Wednesday afternoon it was heavy, soft in places on the hurdles course and soft, heavy in places on the chase track. More rain as much as 25mm is being forecast. If that amount materialises then the meeting will be under threat.
If it does go ahead the ground will be testing. The likelihood of testing ground at Newbury means Jango Baie will miss the Grade 2 William Hill Denman Chase (3:00) and go straight to the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Anyway, back to Saturday’s big handicap…
Trends
Looking at the last ten running’s (10 winners from 191 runners), a few interesting angles emerge:
Last Time Out Placing:
Last time out winners are 1 winner from 53 runners (Exp/Wins 4.72). Horses that finished 2nd or 3rd LTO: 7 winners from 54 runners (Exp/Wins 4.51), plus nine places.
Of the two winners who didn’t finish in the top three last time:
Iberico Lord (2024) was returned to soft ground and had won the Greatwood Hurdle earlier in the season.
Pic D’Orhy (2020) had made his belated seasonal return the previous month.
A recent good run matters but it doesn’t have to be a win. Two of my early fancies, All In You and Hot Fuss, both won last time.
Days since last run:
Only 1 winner from 69 runners (Exp/Wins 4.04) had not raced between 31–75 days previously.
That sole winner was Pic D’Orhy, who was returning after just 21 days.
Trainers
Nigel Twiston-Davies: 3 winners from 16 runners (+25.5), 6 places
Paul Nicholls: 2 winners from 23 runners (+14.75), 6 places
Both yards have strong contenders again this year.
Shared winner profile
All ten winners met these criteria:
Age: 5 to 7
Last run track: Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, or Sandown
The track trend makes sense all are Grade 1 venues but it’s one I’d treat with a degree of caution.
As ever, trends are a guide, not a rulebook.
Leading Contenders:
Let It Rain (Dan Skelton)
Heads the betting and it’s easy to see why. She returned from a 13-month layoff to finish a half-length third at Ascot behind Dance And Glance (with All In You third). She’s up 4lb but remains open to plenty of improvement for a trainer who can ready one.
All In You (Warren Greatrex)
Looked well ahead of his mark when coming from the rear to beat Dance And Glance at Sandown last time. A 5lb rise looks fair. The 6yo has a good change of gear and has the profile of a likely winner of the race.
Un Sens A La Vie (Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies)
from the Twiston-Davies yard, was a three-length second to Supreme favourite Old Park Star on his penultimate start. He then won a Ludlow novice. If he handles soft ground, a mark of 130 makes him very interesting on handicap debut.
Tutti Quanti (Paul Nicholls)
Hasn’t been seen since winning the Gerry Feilden over C&D in November. He’s up 8lb but handles soft ground well, the yard is in form and knows what’s needed to win the race.
Hot Fuss (Tom Dascombe)
Benefitted from a slight change of tactics when winning a valuable Windsor handicap 22 days ago. Not the biggest, but tough and genuine. The 5lb penalty shouldn’t stop him being competitive and he’s got good claims.
Lanesborough (Ben Pauling)
Looked a big improver when winning at Doncaster on his seasonal return. He then ran to form when fifth in the Lanzarote (2m5f) at Kempton. A more galloping track may suit, but he’ll need a proper stamina test back at this trip.
Dance And Glance (Anthony Honeyball)
His form ties in closely with Let It Rain and All In You but is much bigger in the betting. He’s honest, game, and well capable of winning another handicap off his current mark albeit others may be better treated.
Bubble Dubi (Stuart Edmunds)
Returned from a 623-day layoff to land an Aintree handicap in November. He’s back from a short break and a 9lb rise looks fair. If he’s in the same form, he can’t be ruled out. From a pure handicapping angle, 33/1 looks too big. The obvious negative he’s a 9yo, and only one horse of that age has won the race since 1963. He still makes plenty of each-way appeal at the price.
The Hardest Geezer (Philip Hobbs & Johnson White)
Finished a six-length fourth to Hot Fuss at Windsor. He’s in form and progressing steadily. He’s been held up lately, but his wins have come when ridden closer to the pace. Interesting if tactics change.
Verdict
I haven’t had a bet in the race yet.
All In You still looks well handicapped and there’s some juice, though not much in the 5/1. My concern is pace. On testing ground, this could be evenly run. If he’s held up, he may be set too much to do. Let It Rain could be anything, but at 11/4 I’m happy to leave her.
That leaves the likes of Hot Fuss, Tutti Quanti, Un Sens A La Vie and Dance And Glance, who are more likely to sit closer to what may not be a strong pace.
Thursday Preview
The day’s most valuable races are at Huntingdon, with two Listed contests: the Lady Protectress Mares’ Chase (2:00) and the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle (3:10).
Nicky Henderson won the Sidney Banks last year and with Shishkin in 2020 before his Supreme success at Cheltenham. He saddles the likely favourite Act Of Innocence this year.
Huntingdon
3:43 – Jolie Baie was well beaten in a stronger race at Newbury last time. She drops in class here. She’s just 2lb above her last winning mark, which came on soft ground. She stays three miles and has good claims. Gavin Sheehan, who won on her at Lingfield last season, returns to the saddle. Trainer Jo Davis has a solid record at the track (2–6, 4 places in five years) and is 2–4, 3 places when teaming up with Sheehan.
Doncaster
12:40 – Call Your Bluff looked one-paced when third at Hereford over 3m1½f. That said a low-grade staying handicap looks within reach of the 6yo. Emma Lavelle’s yard is in form (3 winners from 7 in the last 14 days), so this could be the day.
New Invention hasn’t progressed since a promising racecourse debut last season. Three poor runs this term, but he gets the first-time cheekpieces and steps up a mile on handicap debut. Tristan Durrell takes the ride, which looks significant. He’s a possible improver, though you’d prefer the yard to be in stronger form.
Conditional jockey Charlie Maggs has a superb Doncaster record: 6 winners from 18 rides (+55.0). He rides two Geromino & Kalhandrion that catch the eye.
2:25 – Geromino shaped well on his return at Haydock after 592 days off. He finished fourth, beaten 7¼ lengths, and has since dropped another 2lb. The 10yo now sits 5lb below his last winning mark, which came over C&D. His Doncaster form figures read 211. He races prominently, which is another positive in a potentially steady-run race.
3:00 – Kalhandrion proved his stamina when runner-up over C&D 13 days ago. He stays three miles well and drier ground could suit him better. The 6yo looks well placed to win and holds solid claims.
I was going to preview Sandown’s Friday card in tomorrow’s column but it’s been abandoned due to a waterlogged track. Thankfully, we still have the first Invades/ARC “Friday Night Live” series fixture at Newcastle, plus the North Wales National Handicap Chase at Bangor-on-Dee.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John