Hi all,
Today's column is predominantly focused on one topic: more Cheltenham Festival trends and statistics. Plus, there's a selection from Wincanton.
Cheltenham Festival Stats
Today's statistics highlight Irish trainers Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, along with three jockeys who have poor records at the festival.
Gordon Elliott
I recall mentioning Gordon Elliott's record last year regarding Cheltenham Festival runners that had their prep run at Naas & Navan. Since 2017, Elliott has achieved 29 winners from 264 runners, resulting in a profit of +66.65, with 88 placed at the Cheltenham Festival. Numerically, only Willie Mullins has had more winners. Among Elliott's 29 winners, ten had their last run at Naas or Navan.
Last year, the angle produced significant results with 3 winners from 10 runners, resulting in a profit of +45.1, with 4 placed. While I don't anticipate the same level of profit this year, it's still worth considering as the trainer favours both tracks as preps for the festival.
Henry De Bromhead.
Trainer Henry De Bromhead has secured 18 winners at the Cheltenham Festival since 2017. Here's the breakdown of the trainers record by race class.
All 18 of the De Bromhead runners ran in a Graded races last time out. Those who ran non-graded races on their previous start were 0 winners from 32 runners, 4 placed.
Last year, the trainer secured three winners, with two of them, Envoi Allen and Honeysuckle, triumphing in Grade 1 races, while Maskada won the Grand Annual. De Bromhead demonstrated his ability to win handicaps at the festival, so it's unwise to overlook his runners in those races. However, it's his Grade 1 runners that particularly catch my attention.
A profit has been achieved at Industry SP, but backing the trainer's runners to BFSP has yielded even greater profits.
In addition to the handicap trainers mentioned in yesterday's column, other trainers worth noting at this year's festival include Gavin Cromwell, known for his proficiency as a target trainer, the in-form Ben Pauling, and Dan Skelton, particularly in handicap hurdles, where four of his five festival winners have originated.
Underperforming Jockeys:
Does the jockey play any part when you’re considering your bets? If it doesn’t you won’t be interested in the following stats. The jockey's performance certainly plays a role in my betting considerations. Therefore, I'm interested in the following stats concerning three top jockeys who have struggled to get into the winner's enclosure.
Breakdown by jockey:
Since 2017, these three jockeys have only managed to ride two winners at the festival, despite expectations for a combined total of 11 wins. To be fair, Sam Twiston-Davies broke his losing streak last year by guiding The Real Whacker to victory.
How do you think the three jockeys will do this year?
Regarding their prospects this year, Sam Twiston-Davies has a decent chance with Broadway Boy, as does Paddy Brennan with Dysart Enos, and Daryl Jacobs has some potentially intriguing rides for Simon Munir & Mr. Isaac Souede.
While their festival records wouldn't deter me from backing one of their mounts if I fancied it, I would expect the odds to compensate for their past performances.
If, unlike me, you can’t get enough of these trends guides I will point you in the direction of an excellent article on Cheltenham Festival Handicaps by Dave Renham over at Geegeez. It’s an excellent overview and there’s some fascinating insights. It's well worth a read.
That’s me done trends wise. You could say I have reached ‘peak trends’. My final Cheltenham Festival thoughts will be featured in tomorrow's column.
Thursday Preview:
The most valuable race on Thursday is the Listed BetMGM Spring Cup Stakes (3:20) at Lingfield. There’s £31,614 on offer for this 7f contest.
Queen Of Zafeen made it 2-2 when winning over C&D last month. Up in class but capable of more improvement and is the one to beat. Watch My Tracer was a useful juvenile last season winning at Yarmouth before finishing a respectable 7th of 20 to River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Looks a decent prospect and if ready to roll for the first time since September has each way claims.
The best race over jumps today is Newt In Somerset Handicap Chase (2:25) at Wincanton. I like the claims of bottom weight Gingerbread. The 6-year-old got off the mark on his fifth attempt over fences at Ffos Las 35 days ago. He’s just 3lb higher here and is capable of better in the sphere. Windance won this corresponding race last year. The 9-year-old looked set to for the hat trick before unseating his rider at the last at Plumpton 10 days ago. Off the same mark here and is another with strong claims.
Thursday Selection:
Wincanton
2:25 – Gingerbread.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John