Windsor Double and Haydock Trainer Stat

Morning all,

This week I am looking at John Gosden and a young amateur jockey who looks set for a good jumps season. There's a horse for your notebooks and not one but two Monday tips. I have also highlighted a trainer who has a 57% win strike rate at Haydock in September. To find out who it is take a look inside…

Well autumn has arrived according to the weather forecasters and the rhythm of the flat season changes once more. The emphasis is now moving towards the juveniles and of course next year’s classics.

That said there are plenty of big meetings to come this month. We have the final classic of the season the St Leger, Ayr’s Western Meeting and the Cambridgeshire Meeting at the end of September. Add in Irish Champions Weekend and we have some great racing to look forward too.

Has John Gosden found another Superstar?

I read last week some pundit opining that Charlie Appleby was arguably the best trainer in Britain at the moment. It did make me chuckle.

Whilst I have the upmost respect for the Newmarket trainer its does smack a little of recency bias. He will no doubt train plenty of Classic winners in the next few years. But there is one trainer who still stands head and shoulders, literally, above all and it’s John Gosden.

He just keeps training great horses. Doesn’t he? In the past few years we have had the likes of Enable, Golden Horn, Roaring Lion, Cracksman, Stradivarius, Kingman and Taghrooda. Add in the likes of Lah Ti Dar and now Too Darn Hot.

Too Darn Hot, demolished a decent field of juveniles to win the Solario Stakes at Sandown on Saturday. The drop back to 7f wasn’t an issue for the Dubawi colt who had previously won a maiden over mile.

Some lucky punters grabbed the 20/1 available about his chance for next year’s Derby. They have a tasty ante-post bet to take into the winter months. He’s now as low as 5/1 for Epsom which is a crazy price despite his undoubted potential for improvement as a 3-year-old.

He’s one of few potential superstars that could be battling out for Classic glory in 2019. Next year could be a vintage year for the classic generation. Let’s hope so.

Aine's going under the radar

Aine O’Connor caught my eye on a couple of occasions last winter when riding Litterale Ci and Drumcliff. The Irish amateur who had been attached to the Alan Fleming yard, moved over the Irish Sea, last winter, to ride for her brother-in-law Harry Fry.

Last month she gave Voix D'eau a fine ride to win at Southwell. A horse that hadn’t won a race since April 2016. Well she was at it again at Newton Abbot on Saturday. As she gave Litterale Ci a well-executed ride beating the Noel Fehilly ridden favourite in the process.

A very tidy jockey she may not be the strongest in a finish but she gets her mounts into a good position in a race and she has impressed me with the way she presents a horse at a fence.

What’s good is that horses clearly run and jump for her. She’s also winning on horses that more experienced jockeys have failed with.

Looking at her stats. Since she took out a licence she’s had 21 winners from 185 rides 11% -32 A/E 1.1 50 placed 27%. However, since she came over to ride this side of the Irish Sea she’s had 10 winners from 21 runners 48% +27.25 A/E 2.16 13 placed 62%.

That impressive win strike rate will of course come down as she gets more rides. But I fully expect her to have plenty more winners this winter and if she keeps her amateur status she must be a hot favourite to be top amateur National Hunt jockey this season.

A big Saturday win should help her get more outside rides and she's well worth her 5lb claim.

Aine O’Connor is a jockey well worth keeping onside in the coming months.

Notebook horse:

Norway, trained by Aiden O’Brien, a half-brother to multiple Group 1 winner, Duke Of Marmalade and a full brother to Derby Winner Ruler Of The World. He continues to catch the eye both on and off the track. A really nice-looking horse!

He had made a solid debut at the Curragh in July and built that promise when 3rd of 13 to stablemate Sydney Opera House, in the 1m maiden at the same venue on Saturday.

As expected the son of Galileo improved for the step up to a mile, doing his best work at the finish.

There is probably a maiden race in him before the season is out. However, we won’t see the best of him until next year and he gets to race over middle distances.

Stat of the week:

Hugo’s the trainer for Haydock

Thursday see’s the start of three days racing at Haydock. There is one trainer whose runners need noting at the track.

Hugo Palmer has an excellent win strike rate at Haydock. He’s had 18 winners from 57 runners 32% +83.2 A/E 1.64 30 placed 53% (+109.12 each way) since 2014. He also boasts an impressive record with his runners at the track in September – 8 winners from 14 runners 57% +15.22 A/E 2.03 10 placed 71%.

Monday selections:

Two for the price of one today.

Windsor

5:30 – Rollicking, remains a maiden after six starts but has shaped with enough promise to think that she can win a minor nursery. She has been running in better class nurseries on her last two starts and was only beaten 2 ½ lengths, in a Class 2 race at Newmarket 16 days ago.

Hopefully, the drop back into Class 5 company will enable her to get her into the winner’s enclosure today. Not certain to stay the 1m but if she is does it will be on a speed favouring track like Windsor.

Rollicking – 7/2

6:00 – Wiley Post, has been in the best form of his career this season. The 5-year-old won over C&D back in April and also won at Brighton two starts back in the hands of today’s jockey Jason Watson.

He also put in a great effort, when stepped up to a Class 2 race, beaten just ½ lengths into 6th here two weeks ago. The drop back to 5f and back into Class 4 is in his favour and he looks sure to go well provided they go a decent gallop.

Wiley Post – 6/1

Until next week.