Good morning all,
We’re just one day away from the first day of Royal Ascot and final declarations for tomorrow are now out.
If the thought of 35 top class races doesn’t quicken the pulse, then nothing will. Even the additional races that have been added to the meeting would be the big betting races on a normal Saturday. Granted finding a Ripon 6f winner pays out the same as the winner of the Wokingham but its hardly as satisfying.
It’s going to be Royal Ascot all the way for me until Friday. Inside today’s main piece I have a couple of eyecatchers from York. Plus, I have a couple of Royal Ascot trainer stats and a selection from this evening’s meeting at Windsor.
I was at York on Friday and I have to say I thoroughly enjoyed the experience. Obviously, the summer like weather helped. The crowd was smaller than normal but at least those who were there seemed to be mostly racing enthusiasts. However, I’m not sure how long racecourses can go continue with such small numbers long term.
Last weekend’s action was very much the case of calm before the storm. The best of the handicappers we’re notably absent. Likely being kept back with this week in mind.
York Eyecatchers:
A quiet week on the eyecatcher’s front. However, there are couple from the weekend’s action at York.
First Folio bounced off the quick ground to land a typically competitive renewal of York’s Class 2 three-year old sprint handicap. It was a nice Saturday winner in front of the ITV cameras for second season trainer James Ferguson.
The race probably wasn’t as strong quality wise as some previous renewals of the race but a few winners should come out of it.
Dark Shift – Charlie Hills
I tipped him up ante post in Wednesday’s column. Well, he lost any chance he had on his handicap debut by being slowly away from the stalls. He made a bit of late headway to finish a 6-length 8th of the 17 runners. Well backed into 9/2 favourite at the off. He shaped better than his final position suggests and remains on a competitive mark.
Blackrod – Michael Dods
Blackrod made an encouraging return to action when a 6 ¾ length 7th of 11 at Haydock two weeks ago and Osin Murphy was an eyecatching jockey booking for the colt who was racing on ground quicker than good to soft for the first time. Seemingly handling underfoot conditions. He’s bred to stay further than 6f, and looks the sort to keep improving as the season progresses.
Royal Ascot: Trainers Stats
Aidan O’Brien
Numerically the most winning trainer at the Royal Meeting is Aidan O’Brien. Since the start 2015 he’s had 31 winners from 261 runners 14% +1.03 80 placed 37%.
You can improve on that profit by concentrating on those Group 2, 3 & Listed races where he has just the one runner. Such qualifiers have produced the following set of results:
12 winners from 38 runners 32% +36.87 23 placed 61%
He’s got one qualifier on Tuesday The Acropolis in the Coventry Stakes (3:05).
John & Thady Gosden
John Gosden is the next most winning trainer with 18 winners from 151 runners 14% -43.99 49 placed 32%.
Punters must work hard to find a profit among his runners, though. However, it may pay to focus on his qualifiers with the following criteria:
Race Type: Non-handicaps
Odds SP: 9/1 & under
Runs in the Season: 0 to 1 only
11 winners from 30 runners 37% +25.76 15 placed 50%
The yard have two qualifiers on Tuesday:
Tolstoy – Coventry Stakes (3:05)
Forest Of Dean – Wolferton Stakes (5:35)
Both yards are well clear of the rest in terms of winners but another trainer whose runners are worth keeping an eye on is Roger Varian.
Roger Varian
Since 2015 Roger Varian has saddled 7 winners from 74 runners 9% -35.75 19 placed 26%. All seven winners shared the following traits:
Race Class – Not Group 1
Odds SP: 9/1 & under
Best In Last Three Runs: 1st
7 winners from 19 runners 37% +19.25 13 placed 68%. Backing all qualifiers each way would have resulted in a £27.17 profit to £1 level stakes.
In tomorrow's column I will be concentrating on day one of Royal Ascot.
Monday Racing
Monday’ selection is from this evening’s meeting at Windsor.
Windsor
7:30 – Ivatheengine won over C&D as a 2-year-old. The 4-year-old only ran once in 2020 winning at Newmarket off today’s mark. Hasn’t been seen at his best in two starts this season but he does get the first time cheekpieces and he’s well suited to quick ground.
Ivatheengine – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk