Hi all,
Today’s big betting race in Britain is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (3:15) — a full field of 20 line up for a tilt at the £81,000 first prize. It’s the centrepiece of a strong Newcastle card, which also features the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes (2:10).
ITV Racing will be covering the first five races live from Newcastle, plus three more from York to round out a busy afternoon of racing.
Inside today’s main piece I am approaching the ITV races at Newcastle from a different angle.
Looking for winners — or value?
Here are my Victor Value fair/value odds for Saturday’s ITV races at Newcastle:
1:40 – JenningsBet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Durham Castle – Progressive. Up 4lb for Windsor win. Previous Tapeta winner. Fair odds: 5/1.
Sergeant Wilko – C&D winner. Best of those down the centre at Haydock last time. Fair odds: 12/1.
Arctic Thunder – Improving. 6f suited at Haydock. First go on tapeta. Fair odds: 10/1.
Pocklington – 2/2 over C&D. Eyecatcher at York last August. Down 2lb. Fair odds: 7/1.
2:10 – JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Kind Of Blue – Group 1 winner at Ascot last October. Missed break on seasonal return. Carries 7lb penalty.
Ferrous – 5-7 on AW. C&D win looked Group-class when here last time.
Verdict:
Back: Ferrous if 4/1+
Pass: Kind Of Blue under 3/1 unless heavily backed
2:40 – JenningsBet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Northumberland Plate Consolation Race) – 2m ½f
Verdict:
Contacto is unexposed over staying distances. Fair Odds: 6/1.
Savrola and Humble Spark have solid claims in an open looking race.
3:15 – JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Verdict:
Golden Rules is solid enough. Fair Odds: 8/1.
Zanndabad and Dancing In Paris were lively outsiders although the value has dried up on the former.
3:45 – Pertemps Network Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Verdict:
Rare Change is solid, but skinny enough at 7/2.
Native Warrior is interesting in first time headgear on drop back to 7f. Fair Odds: 7/1.
City Walk worth noting if market speaks in his favour after a layoff: Fair Odds: 10/1+.
If your just after VALUE, there would be few bets on Saturday. Most of my fancies were cut on Friday some substantially so there’s precious little value left on Saturday morning. Of course that could all change in the pre-race betting markets.
I am back on Monday with a look back at the weekend’s action.
Good luck with your Saturday bets,
John