Good morning all,
Day one of the Ebor Festival was lit up by the performance of Mishriff in winning the Juddmonte International. Granted he was the best horse on ratings. However, he made some good horses look very average in his six-length victory. We wanted a great performance to kick start the meeting and we got it.
The going was quick on day one and there was very little ease in the ground. The times were fast on and Mishriff wasn’t far away from a course record. Expect the ground to tighten up further today with no rain forecast.
Onto the second day of Ebor Festival. It’s Ladies Day both on and off the track with four of the seven races open to fillies only. The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks (3:35) is the headline race with Oaks heroine Snowfall a hot favourite to enhance her claims for the Arc.
The opening race of a seven-race card is Group 2 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (3:00) for 2-year-old fillies. The unbeaten Sandrine has to give 3lb to some useful rivals, including Desert Dreamer and last time out winners Zain Claudette and Illustrating.
Inside today's main piece you can read my thoughts on four of today's races. Plus, I have selection for Friday's Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes.
York Ebor Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 6f
The unbeaten Sandrine will be a popular choice. A winner of the Group 3 at Royal Ascot and a Group 2 at Newmarket on her last two starts. She has a 3lb penalty to carry for that latter success but is the one to beat on known form.
Desert Dreamer has 1 ¾ lengths to find with Sandrine on their running at Newmarket but does get 3lb here. However, you have to think that her old rival has more scope for improvement and can give the weight away.
Zain Claudette showed herself to be a smart filly when beating Desert Dreamer by a nose in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot last time. There should be more to come from her but she will need to progress to beat the favourite.
Illustrating a winner at Catterick on her racecourse found things happening too quickly when only 7th of 21 in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, she returned to winning ways when showing a good turn of foot to win at Goodwood (soft) 22-days ago. The step up to 6f should suit her on breeding.
Of the rest Outside World made all to win over C&D last month. The dam won a Group 1 over a mile so she’s bred to be smart. This is a big step up in class for the Mark Johnston horse, however, she can’t be easily dismissed with Dettori up for the first time.
Verdict: Sandrine will be tough to beat but Zain Claudette is a big danger and I wouldn't be surprised to see Outside World run a big race.
2:25 – Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 6f
System is the form pick on her win over Desert Dreamer in a Newmarket Listed race in July.
Smullen is a four-race maiden but the Kevin Ryan trained gelding put in a career best effort when a 2 ½ length 6th off 22 behind the useful Sacred Bridge in Naas Sales race last time. A reproduction of that run would give him each way claims here.
Korker found the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot too hot a race but bounced back to winning ways in calmer waters at Thirsk last time. First try at 6f, should say, and is a contender.
Atomic Lady a winner at Ripon created a good impression when winning a nursery handicap over C&D two starts back. Not as good back at 5f at Musselburgh last time. However, she was drawn on the unfavored far side and a better run can be expected from the filly here.
Wings Of War built on the promise of his Leicester racecourse debut when making all to win at Nottingham. Well suited to quick ground and the son of Dark Angel is open to more progress.
Verdict: The pace held up at York on the straight course yesterday and paid to be drawn in lower half of the draw. Atomic Lady wasn’t seen to best effect at Musselburgh last time and better is expected from the previous C&D winner. Smullen looks the pick of the Kevin Ryan runners after his run in the big sales race at Naas last time .
3:35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Epsom & Irish Oaks winner Snowfall will be odds on to win this as she bids to enhance her Arc claims. No issues with the track for the daughter of Deep Impact either as she won the Musidora here on her seasonal return. Snowfall’s chance is even stronger in the likely event that her main market rival Wonderful Tonight doesn’t run due to the ground.
Wonderful Tonight only has 3lb to find with the favourite on official ratings and she will be suited by the return to 1m 4f. The quick ground would be a concern though.
Of the rest, Loving Dream had Eshaada ¾ length back in second when winning the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot . The quicker ground at Ascot suited the winner who should stay further than 1m 4f.
Eshaada, a winner over first two starts at Newbury, arguably comes out of the Ribblesdale with even more credit than the winner. She was keen in the early stages of the race, wasn’t as well positioned as the winner. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. However. Eshaada may have more scope for improvement. Still both fillies have plenty to find with Snowfall on the figures.
Verdict: Snowfall will take the beating especially as there has to be doubt about the participation of her main rival Wonderful Tonight. Her main dangers look to be Loving Dream and Eshaada with the latter of most interest.
4:45 – British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Trainer Dermot Weld is the first port of call for this race. Since 2010 he’s run four fillies, two of them have won and one finished runner-up.
He and jockey Osin Murphy teamed up with Search For A Song to win this in 2019 and they do here with Amma Grace.
The 4-year-old won a Listed race at Leopardstown (soft) last October. Prior to that she had finished runner-up to Cayenne Pepper in Group 2 at the Curragh (good). She’s just had the two starts this season and wasn’t disgraced when returning from a three-month absence to finish a 5 ¾ length 4th of 10 to the smart Le Petite Coco in a Group 3 at Cork 12-days ago.
Portfolio has been a steady improver this season winning quick ground handicaps at Leicester and Newmarket. She finished a ¾ length 3rd of 9 behind Save A Forest on her first try in Listed company 19-days ago.
Another open to improvement is the John & Thady Gosden trained Pennymoor. The daughter of Frankel showed improved form to get off the mark at the third attempt when easily winning a Kempton novice 15-days ago. The step up to 1m 4f suited the 3-year-old whose dam won a German Oaks. This is a big step-up class but she’s got scope for plenty of improvement.
Verdict: It will be interesting to see if Pennymoor can improve for a return to turf after her impressive Kempton win. Amma Grace comes into the race with the best form and can give her trainer a third win in the race.
York Selection:
Yesterday’s selection Mac Swiney put in a decent effort in the big race. However, my hope there would be more ease in the ground didn’t come to pass. Today’s selection runs in the 4:45 at York
York
4:45 – Amma Grace – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
As promised here's a selection for tomorrow's big race the Nunthorpe Stakes.
Friday – Nunthorpe Stakes
3:35 – It's a long time since a 2-year-old won the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. In fact, you must go back Kingsgate Native way back in 2007 for the last one. Although Acapulco did finish runner-up in 2015 renewal. Mind you only 14 have tried since 1998 and the last two did so five years ago.
There is one juvenile entered in this year's race and its Chipotle. However, he does need fast ground and the quicker the better. A winner of the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. I think he would have won in the Super Sprint at Newbury but for being hampered 1f out. If he had won that day, he would have been 4-4 on good or faster ground. You can put a line through his run in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last time as the ground was too soft for him.
Hollie Doyle has been booked for the ride and the first time cheekpieces are applied. It's going to be a big ask but I can see him running well. He's 50/1 with Ladbrokes (paying three places) or 40/1 with BetVictor (paying 4 places). Given the weight he receives I think he's overpriced. However, he wouldn't want any rain to arrive.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk