Morning all.
Inside today’s main piece its part 2 of my York Ebor Festival Review. In the first section I assess how the golden rules fared and in the second its an eyecatcher from each of the four days.
Ebor Festival: Golden rules review
There’s only one thing wrong with the Ebor Festival it goes so fast. Apart from that I enjoyed every second of it.
In last week’s preview of the meeting, I put up three “golden rules”. Here’s a reminder of what they were:
- Course form – I will be looking for horses that have run at the track and even better if they have placed at York before.
- I will be avoiding those drawn out widest in the big field handicaps on the round course.
- Keep onside those drawn low in the sprint handicaps but always be aware where the pace is on the straight course.
The simple but profitable angle
If you ignore the juvenile who ran on day one, produced 5 winners from 23 bets 22% +16.5 10 placed 43% A/E 1.67. There was a bigger profit to BFSP and for each way punters it produced a +24.12 profit. The final tally could have been even better as Master Richard (16/1) went down by a nose and Alfred Boucher (8/1) was beaten a short head.
This angle has now been profitable for the last six seasons, and I will be using it again next year. The only frustrating thing about it, is its simplicity. I spent a lot of time studying the form and I might as well not have bothered because I could have made my profit from just following the angle’s qualifiers.
The draw on the round course
For the first two days of the meeting, it was like the good old times on the Knavesmire with jockeys heading to the far rail. In recent years jockeys have tended to shun going the shortest way down the fair rail in races on the round course. Instead, they had opted for coming more down the middle. That didn’t happen on Wednesday & Thursday. However, on Friday and Saturday that changed as the jockey’s gravitated towards the middle.
As I said in my Ebor Handicap Preview. “If there’s a race where a horse can defy the final quarter draw it’s this one” and so it proved. In fact, looking at the last five running’s of the race drawn low is not the place to be. With those in stalls 1-7 being 1 winner from 29 runners 2 placed.
The draw on the straight course
All four big field handicaps on the straight course were won by horses in single digit stall. It wasn’t all bad news for those drawn high though.
Looking at those runners in drawn in quarter 4 they were 0 winners from 17 runners but five placed and if you had backed them all each-way you would have made a +7.50 profit.
All in all, the “golden rules” did just fine. As punters we should always be assessing our methodologies as nothing is fixed in this game. And the four days have helped me re-evaluate my betting strategies. More on that subject when I get a chance in future columns.
Ebor Festival: Four for the Tracker
I have to say I didn’t fancy previous eyecatcher Summerghand in Saturday’s 6f Heritage Handicap. I knew he was well handicapped, and a win wasn’t far away when all the cards fell right. However, I wasn’t totally convinced that York was his track. I was proved wrong as he won in the style of a well handicapped horse he was. Instead of his York course form I should have focused on the 8-year-old’s incredible record in August. After Saturday’s win his form figures in the month are now 1214212141.
Summerghand will presumably now head to Ayr for next month’s Virgin Bet Gold Cup a race he finished a 1 ¾ length 4th of 24 in 2019. He gets a 5lb penalty for Saturday’s win but remains competitively weighted.
The bookies reacted to his success by making the 10/1 joint favourite with Great Ambassador for the race. However, before you press the bet button it’s worth noting he’s 0 wins from 16 runs 5 places in September & October. Mind you he’s only got to race on his favoured good to firm ground once and that was in last year’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock. If the dry weather continues maybe, he can gain the September/October win that has eluded him so far.
Another previous eyecatcher highlighted in the column went in on Saturday. As Phantom Flight (3/1) ran out an impressive winner of the concluding race of the Ebor Festival.
There were a few horses that are worthy of putting into your trackers. But I will concentrate on just four. All four are from Yorkshire based trainers and two of them are trained by David O’Meara.
Wednesday: Nomadic Way – David O’Meara
Nomadic Way had looked on a fair mark at the start of the season but has disappointed in truth. Shaped well in the first-time visor and bounced back to something like his best when a 1½ length 4th of 22 to Bergerac. He hit form at this time last year, all three of his career wins have come between August & October and he’s placed 8 times for a 67% win and place strike rate. Does seem to go well at the Knavesmire and won a 6f handicap here last September and he’s below that winning mark.
Thursday: Spirit In My Soul – Adrian Nicholls
The filly put in an excellent effort when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 14 to Kyeema in Thursday’s nursery. The combination of the step up to 7f and move into handicap company brought about this improved performance. She eligible for lesser races than this and should soon be winning.
Friday: Yorkshire Lady – Michael & David Easterby
Yorkshire Lady stepped up on low key seasonal return at Sandown. Producing a much better effort when a 7-length 4th of 10 to State Occasion. The filly seems to be slowly working her way back to winning form and she was at her best between August & September last season producing 3 wins from 8 runs +14.83.
Friday’s ground would have been as quick as she wants. And when she gets good or good to soft (2-2) we should see an even better run from her. All four of her career wins have come when racing within 30-days of her last run – 4 wins from 6 starts +20.58. Still 6lb above her last winning mark but she should ease a 1lb or two after this. She can win again in the coming weeks.
Saturday: Gulliver – David O’Meara
Like stablemate Summerghand Gulliver he needs no introduction. He looked set for a good season when a 1 length 3rd of 21 over C&D in May. However, he’s been below that level of form on two subsequent starts in the Wokingham Handicap and Stewards Cup.
There was a hint that he might be close coming back to form when a 4 ¼ length 7th of 17 to Summerghand on Saturday. Three of his best RPR’s have come over York’s 6f with two of them coming in the same race the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap in October which he won in 2019 & 2022.
Yet to win on ten starts in September. However, he has placed four times including when a length 3rd of 24 in the 2019 Ayr Gold Cup. His record in October & November is even better – 6 wins from 12 runs +40.13. A trip to Ayr seems likely and when he gets some more ease in the ground he can win again.
Tuesday Racing
The flat horses take a day off and the field is left wide open for the summer jumpers with four meetings across Britain & Ireland. I have had a quick look at couple of races at Bellewstown so if anyone's interested here goes.
Bellewstown
6:15 – Inforapenny won over C&D two starts back and was a respectable 6 lengths 4th of 13, off a 5lb higher mark at Limerick last time. It's always worth respecting course form around here. However, preference is for Search For Myth. The mare was back to her best when a 4 length 2nd of 20 at Cork 22-days ago. She didn’t get the best of runs coming to two out that day and by the time she was in the clear the winner had got first run on her. An eight-race maiden but she can win a handicap hurdle off her present mark. Today’s extra 2f should suit but the fitting of the hood is a slight concern in that regard.
6:45 – Lieutenant Highway bids for the four timer on handicap hurdle debut and looks a worthy market leader. At an each-way price I like TELECON. A winner on his hurdle debut at Ballinrobe two starts back. Ran better than his 14 ¼ length 8th of 9 in listed novice hurdle at Galway last time suggests. He was making headway on the outside when making a bad mistake two out and had no chance after. I’m not saying he would have won but would have finished a lot closer than he did.
Tuesday Selection:
6:45 – Telecon – 5/1 (each way).
In tomorrow's column I will begin my look ahead the weekend's action. Plus, I may have seen next year's Derby winner.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John