York Ebor Festival Review – Part 2

Hi all,

Here’s the final part of my York Ebor Festival review, covering the last two days of the meeting. I’ve also highlighted some more future winners from the meeting.

York Ebor Festival Review – Part 2

Friday brought a notable shift in conditions, with a cross wind replacing last year's tailwind. Additionally, overnight rain slowed the ground slightly, making it sure that no records were going to be broken.

Bradsell’s Nunthorpe Triumph

Archie Watson had Bradsell primed for the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes, and the preparation paid off. Drawn low, Bradsell was the only horse able to keep pace with the trailblazing Ponntos. Ponntos led until 2f out, but then Hollie Doyle expertly kept Bradsell up to his work, fending off a fast-finishing Believing and Starlust.

Believing, drawn high in stall 13, faced a tough challenge from the start. Despite this, no horse was finishing faster than her. It was another commendable performance from the filly, who deserves to win a Group 1 and could benefit from a race over 5 ½ furlongs.

Asfoora, the 6/4 favourite, raced down the centre of the track. In hindsight, Osin Murphy might have been better off moving her to the far side, though it’s unlikely it would have changed the result. Meanwhile, the well-fancied Big Evs also struggled from his high draw. Unlike at Goodwood, Michael Appleby’s horses weren’t in top form last week.

Ultimately, the best horse won on the day. Bradsell is a worthy Nunthorpe winner, better than the last three, though not quite at the level of Battaash or Mecca’s Angel.

Vauban’s Return to Form

In the Group 2 Lonsdale Stakes, Vauban bounced back to his best. The 6-year-old showed an impressive turn of foot between the 2f and 1f markers, securing a well-deserved victory. After a disappointing run as the favourite in last year’s Melbourne Cup, that race is once again his target. I expect a much better showing from him this time around but does he really stay two miles.

Ebor Day Highlights

Saturday’s action centred around the Ebor Handicap, the highlight of the week for many York punters. Unlike the previous two days, there was a headwind in the straight, adding another layer of challenge for the runners.

The prevailing wisdom that being up with the pace on the round course was crucial was proven wrong in both the Melrose and Ebor Handicaps. In the Melrose, the first three horses entering the straight ended up finishing in the last three spots. Similarly, in the Ebor, the first five finishers came from midfield or further back.

Sea The Fire also came from behind to win the Group 3 Strensall Stakes. Osin Murphy rode for luck down the far rail, but he was on the best horse, and she won comfortably.

Henry’s Magical Ebor Plan

The well-backed favourite, Magical Zoe, executed a well-laid plan by Henry De Bromhead’s team to clinch the Ebor Handicap. She travelled beautifully throughout the race, and once she took the lead 1f out, there was no catching her. A high-class hurdler, Magical Zoe now appears capable of winning at Group level on the flat. With her ‘Golden Ticket’ to the Melbourne Cup secured, it’s likely that connections will take up the option.

The race, however, was marred by Crystal Delight breaking down and unseating Tom Marquand. Fortunately, a fall was avoided, preventing what could have been carnage. My sympathies go out to his connections; Crystal Delight was likely capable of showing more.

Personally, I backed Kihavah (who finished second) and Epic Poet (fourth). Kihavah ran well at a track he clearly loves, though he was slightly hampered when Crystal Delight broke down. However, it wasn’t enough to influence the result. Epic Poet also ran well, though he wasn’t well-handicapped enough to win an Ebor. There’s still a nice handicap in him.

If there was an unlucky runner in the race, it was Willie Mullins Hipop De Loire. He was making significant headway but was denied a clear run in the final furlong. Had he found a gap sooner, he likely would have finished second rather than fifth. That said, he wasn’t quick enough to capitalise on a brief opening before it closed. He probably needs two miles and has an entry in both the Irish Cesarewitch and the Cesarewitch at Newmarket.

Track Bias

The track bias towards the far rail, which was evident during the first two days, persisted throughout the final two. A bias lasting for an entire meeting is almost unprecedented at York, making it a point of concern.

What’s the reason?

There are two plausible theories. The first suggests that York watered the track during a strong crosswind, which blew the water unevenly across the surface. The second theory takes us back to the 1970s and 1980s. Back then, jockeys rarely strayed from the far rail on the round course unless the ground was soft. Recently, horses have spread out down the middle, leading to the far-side ground being less used and creating a ‘golden highway.’ I had half expected York to water on Friday evening to try to even things out but to their credit they didn’t.  Both theories could be correct, and it’s something York will need to look at.

Punting Perspective

Friday brought some redemption with three winners, including Bradsell, making up for earlier losses. However, Saturday was less fortunate. I had four selections place, and even a late bet on Sea The Fire (I couldn’t believe Bet365 were offering 4/1) didn’t make up for missing out on the big handicap winners. As I mentioned in Monday’s column, fine margins matter. Unfortunately, I found myself on the wrong side of the coin. The only consolation is that I’m enjoying the laying side, and my two angles continue to be profitable.

Ebor Festival Verdict

York delivered the performance of the season from City Of Troy in the race of the season, the Juddmonte International. However, the persistent track/draw bias somewhat tarnished this year’s meeting. Don’t get me wrong—I love York and the Ebor Festival. But it’s frustrating that so many horses had little to no chance due to their draws. It’s something that York will need to address going forward.

York Ebor Festival Future Winners

Beyond the excitement of the Ebor Handicap, Saturday’s card featured three other highly competitive handicaps. Each of these races will undoubtedly produce future winners.

Melrose Handicap: Form to Follow

The Melrose Handicap is traditionally one of the most competitive 3-year-old handicaps on the flat racing calendar, and this year’s edition was no exception. The form from this race is one to take a positive view of moving forward.

The winner, Tabletalk, triumphed off a mark of 95 and is now bordering on Group 3 level. With only five career starts under his belt, this son of Camelot has the potential to improve further as a 4-year-old. Should his connections choose, he could be aimed at next year’s Ebor.

The Andrew Balding-trained duo of Wild Waves (4th) and Tactician (6th) are also horses to keep an eye on. Wild Waves was probably given a bit too much to do but finished strongly despite not getting the best passage 1f out.

Tactician, a previous winner over 2 miles, didn’t quite have the pace for the Melrose’s 1m 6f trip. He clearly needs at least 2 miles and could stay even further, making him an intriguing contender for a race like the Cesarewitch later this season.

Eyecatcher: Master Builder

One standout from the Melrose Handicap was Master Builder, trained by David Menuisier. He attracted market support and, as expected, improved for the step up to 1m 6f, finishing a commendable third. With only four starts to his name, this gelding is capable of further progress. Given his win on soft ground at Salisbury in the spring, there’s every chance we’ll see an even better performance when he encounters more give underfoot.

Ayr Gold Cup Clues?

The other two handicaps on Saturday’s card are also worth revisiting. In particular, the 6f handicap won by Elmonjed could well have given us a glimpse of next month’s Ayr Gold Cup winner. I won’t reveal who I have in mind just yet, but I’ll share my thoughts closer to the race. You can watch the race here from 10:00 mins in and see which one you think it might be.

Two horses that warrant mention today are Apollo One and Summerghand. The ever-consistent Apollo One set a strong pace down the centre of the track. However, considering the known track bias, it’s puzzling why jockey Richard Kingscote didn’t make more of an effort to bring the horse towards either the stands’ side or the far side, rather than sticking to the centre. Then again how many Derby winner have I ridden.

Summerghand ran another typical Summerghand race, being held up in the rear and waiting for a gap 1f out. He finished strongly to take sixth. While the cards will fall right for him one day, it’s anyone’s guess when that might be—and I suspect even trainer David O’Meara isn’t quite sure.

Sky Bet Finale Handicap: A Messy Affair

The final race of the four-day festival, the Sky Bet Finale Handicap over 1m 2f, was as competitive as expected. However, it turned out to be a messy race, with several horses encountering traffic problems. Ron O was among those who didn’t get a clear run, while Have Secret and particularly Oviedo made their efforts out wide. Bystander is another who can do better and needs a more strongly run race than he got on Saturday.

Tuesday Racing

There wasn’t a ‘lay or play’ on Monday but there's one on Tuesday trained by old friend Tim Easterby.

So, is Queens Road Revue a ‘lay or play’ for you?

Best of luck with your Tuesday bets!

John