York Ebor Festival – Saturday

Good morning all,

Nice to get a winner on the board yesterday, with Winter Power proving too good in the Nunthorpe, and it gives me a bit of confidence going into today. If only I had a crystal ball to tell me how much rain is going to fall beyween now and 1.50pm….

Anyway, read on for today's missive, and good luck!

1.50 York – Strenshall Stakes 1m1f

Lord Glitters won this back in 2018 but was a well-held third last year, and he now has to shoulder a penalty, which he didn’t last year. That makes him look vulnerable, despite a welter of good form (and a bit of rain won’t harm his chances) and as long as it’s still good ground for this, it’s Brunch I like the look of. 

He’s been a model of consistency all year and deserved his Listed win at Pontefract last time, but the way he raced there – on and off the bridle, pushed along at various times, yet was nicely on top at the death – suggests he is in need of nine furlongs now. It’s good to see William Buick retain the ride and he can win this before going on to better things. 

Real World will ensure there’s no hanging around, he wants a bit further than this, ideally, and that pace can only help Brunch’s chances. I actually think My Oberon might be the danger, as 9f suits him down to the ground, and he did little wrong against Love last time, but it’s Brunch to step up at the prices. 

2.25 York – Melrose Stakes 1m6f

If the rain comes I suggest Tashkan will nearly go off favourite, as he’s really the only one you can stick your finger on and say is totally proven at the trip in the conditions. He acts on quicker, but his chance would be enhanced considerably if the rain has got in. 

There’s one I’m quite keen on here though. This is going to be run at a very strong pace, with Alpine Stroll, Oman, Golden Flame and possibly even Parachute all pushing it along, and I think it might suit a hold-up. Step forward the Gosdens Imperial Sun, completely outpaced over 10f at Nottingham two starts ago and then the further he went over 12f at Wolverhampton, the easier he won. He’s a half-brother to Leger winner Harbour Law, which also suggests he might be fine if the rain does come, and this step up to 14f looks nailed-on to suit. 

3.00 York – City Of York 7f

Again, ought to be a solid pace on, with Lord Of The Lodge and Highfield Princess likely to take them along at a good clip. Some cut would clearly suit Safe Voyage, and he can never be ruled out at this level whatever the ground (let us not forget, he broke the track record at Epsom, and you don’t do that on soft…) but surely Primo Bacio’s luck will turn sooner rather than later, and this looks her chance. 

She gave Snow Lantern and the rest a proper beating here in May, and since then has suffered some horrendous luck in running at both Newmarket and Deauville. That’s always a worry with a hold-up horse, of course, but with just the nine runners you’d fancy Tom Marquand (taking over from Andrea Atenzi) should find the room to manoeuvre. With the Deauville run coming on soft ground, a drop of rain wouldn’t affect her chances too much, and getting the weight here, I think she’s the one to beat. 

3.35 York – 1m6f Ebor Handicap

Whereas the previous two races look like being run at a good clip, I ask the question – where’s the pace coming from here? I see a lot of hold-up horses and not that much up front, and on that, it isn’t hard to see last year’s winner, Fujaira Prince, running another good race despite another 6lb on his back this year. It’s clearly all been about getting him here in one piece to try and keep his crown, and to that extent his seasonal debut behind Hukum here last month is a perfectly acceptable one, and if the rain comes then so much the better his chance. Hard not to see him going well again, really. 

In a similar vein, Max Vega, who also ran in that Hukum race here last month, finishing seventh, is of some interest. He’s the other that might go forward, so it was interesting to see him dropped out last time out, merely plugging on at the death. That was clearly a run to bring him on a bit, and the handicapper has given him a useful 3lb drop for it. In fact, this is his first handicap after taking on Group company to date, and that makes him even more interesting in my book. 

Connections have taken a gamble with Makawee, pulling her out earlier in the week in the hope she’d get in here, and also get the cut she needs to show her best. She’s tricky to win with, to say the least but has plenty of good York form to call upon, and has some solid efforts to her name this year. One to bear in mind with the extra places if the rain comes.

Today's selection – Fujaira Prince (e/w) 3.35 York

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