Morning all,

The summer has arrived according to the meteorologists. Sadly, the weather doesn’t seem to have go the memo yet.

The Cazoo Derby Festival gets underway on Friday. It’s high class racing with the Oaks on Friday (4:30) and of course flat racing’s ‘blue riband’ race the Derby on Saturday (4:30).

Inside today’s main piece I look head to Saturday’s Derby. Plus, there’s a Wednesday selection from…

You can check the health of the sport by looking at the Derby.

The days when Lester won the race on Sir Ivor and Nijinsky have long gone. The days when hundreds of thousands used to flock to the Epsom Downs to watch it are gone. People would, like for the Grand National, have sweepstakes in workplaces on the race. I doubt anyone does these days. The once-a-year punter who still comes out for the Grand National used to be evident on Derby Day. My gran was one of those:’ Like many she would ask. Who was Lester riding?  ,

As good a jockey as Ryan Moore is. I don’t many non racing people will be asking. Who’s Ryan riding? They won’t be betting on the race at all.  I would hazard a guess that you could walk down Epsom High Street this morning and find most people wouldn’t know the Derby was being run on Saturday.

In its midweek slot it had the stage to itself, with plenty of press coverage in the build up to the race. The move to a Saturday slot was meant to have breathed new life into the race. Has it? If it has. I must have missed it.

What will this year bring?

The race through its long history hasn’t always produced outstanding winners. In fact, they are a rarity. Quest For Fame won in 1990 and could hardly be described as a superstar but his success was sandwiched between two great winners in Nashwan and Generous. However, in recent years the gap between great Derby winners and average ones or even poor ones seems to get longer. Adayar was a good winner last year and Golden Horn was even better one in 2015. However, you have to go to back to Sea The Stars in 2009 for the last really superstar winner of the race.

I think it was the Aga Khan who said the Derby discovers the horse, and the Arc that confirms their greatness. That remains the true litmus test of an outstanding Derby winner.

Cazoo Derby Preview

Epsom Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper will be on weather watch over the next few days. After rain yesterday and today it looks dry until Friday night when there will be some rain and bit more on Saturday morning.  

The going on Tuesday morning was being described as soft, good to soft in places which means we don’t have to worry about any more artificial watering. The image in my head of horses slipping coming around Tattenham Corner can now hopefully be erased.

The Derby entries are out and eighteen were left in the race at the final conformation stage. Since Golden Horn’s win as 13/8 fav. The race has produced winners returned at 16/1. 25/1. 13/2, 16/1, 40/1 and 13/2. Those winning odds show you can’t rule out a big-priced winner.

Desert Crown a worthy favourite

Ante post favourite Desert Crown bids to become the first Dante winner since Golden Horn to follow up in the Epsom Classic. His trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won the Derby five times including for Desert Crown's owner Saeed Suhail with Kris Kin in 2003.  He was mightily impressive when winning the Dante on just his second career start. Granted he’s not necessarily bred to stay 1m 4f but then neither was Golden Horn. He’s open to plenty of improvement and looks a worthy market leader, if a little short for me.

Aidan has a strong hand

Aidan O'Brien is the leading trainer in Derby history with eight wins.  He’s got second favourite Stone Age but also seems likely to run Chester winners Changingoftheguard & Star Of India.  Stone Age was equally as impressive when making all to win the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. He seems an uncomplicated ride, is the likely pick of Ryan Moore and will stay 1m 4f.  He reminds me of Reference Point and a good pace will see him to advantage.

Changinoftheguard would be an apt winner in the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee year. The colt made all to win in soft ground in the Chester Vase. The time of his victory was good, and he will help ensure there is a good pace. He’s not the stablemate one but that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t win as O'Brien-trained second and third strings have won in the past. The same can be said of stablemate Star Of India who looked an uncomplicated ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester.  Has only had three career starts and can’t be dismissed. The last horse to do the Dee Stakes/Derby Double was ironically Kris Kin in 2003.

Godolphin and Charlie Appleby bid to follow up Adayar’s win in last year’s race. They have three entries in Nahanni. Walk Of Stars and the supplemented Nations Pride.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Walk Of Stars did best of the Appleby horses and he did win on soft ground as a 2-year-old so the recent rain looks a plus for his chance. He’s open further improvement but looked a hard ride when runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Adayar finished runner-up in that race before going onto win here. Can lightning strike twice?

The forgotten horse

Some say the 2,000 Guineas is the best trial for the Derby and this year’s Guineas form is represented by Eydon who finished 4^th at Newmarket. I know Tony Calvin is sweet on his chances and the colt seems likely to run here instead of going for the French Derby. The 25/1 available with Bet365 about the ‘wise guys' pick is big but I’m not convinced he will stay 1m 4f in a strongly run race. I have gone a bit cold on the claims of Piz Badile but he’s well fancied and Frankie rides.

Westover had become a bit of a forgotten horse. He won the Classic Trial at Sandown in April. The son of Frankel has developed physically and although he’ll need to have improved plenty since Sandown it’s possible, he can. The colt is live outsider for sure although he may not want the ground to be to testing.

Verdict: Maybe Desert Crown will turn out to be that outstanding Derby winner the race needs. As I have mentioned before. I can see Stone Age taking it up two furlongs from home and it could be a case of whether the Stoute can pass him inside the final furlong. Despite the big field I think the front two have strong credentials. Each-way contenders include Westover, Walk Of Stars and Changingoftheguard & Star Of India.

Wednesday Racing

Ripon, Nottingham, Kempton and the Curragh race on the flat today. There are also jumps fixtures at Cartmel and Newton Abbot.  

There’s a decent card at the Curragh this evening with a couple of decent handicaps, including the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Handicap (7:15). Sixteen have been declared for the is 1m 6f handicap. Which has €29,500 on offer to the winner and place in the York’s Ebor Handicap.  Last year’s winner Shanroe who subsequently finished fourth in the Ebor Handicap in York bids for back-to-back wins in the race. It won’t be easy as he faces several inform rivals including Earl Of Tyrone, The Names Jock and the progressive mare Dame Rapide.

The feature of Ripon seven race evening card is the 6f handicap (6.35).  Former Group 2 winner Mr Lupton drops into Class 3 handicap company for the first time in his career.  Just over a year ago the 9-year-old was winning a Class 2 handicap at York’s Dante Festival. He’s looked regressive since that success and was well beaten at York last time.

There’s plenty of course specialists among the ten declared runners. Fortamour is 3 -5, 4 places. Mark’s Choice is 6-15, 9 places. Flying Pursuit is 4 -19 6 places and his stablemate Bossipop is 4-23, 10 places. However, none of them are the bookies early bird favourite which is the Saeed bin Suroor trained City Walk.

Ripon

6:35 – City Walk won at Chelmsford 18-days ago. He has enough in hand that day to think he can remain competitive off 6lb higher mark. However, he’s never run at Ripon before, and I like horses who have shown an aptitude for its undulations.

Fortamour won over C&D last month and although he’s 5lb higher now can be ruled out here. However, preference is for Mark’s Choice. The 6-year-old was 3 lengths behind Fortamour last time, but he missed the start and can have his effort marked up. He get’s a 6lb pull with the winner and provided he gets off on level terms this time should be a lot closer this evening.

Bossipop ran well at Musselburgh two starts back but was found out in Class 2 company when last of seven at Chester last month. This will suit the 9-year-old better and he’s on a competitive mark when he gets his own way out in front.

Huddle Up looked in need of his first start for the David & Nicola Barron when 7^th of 9 at Thirsk. He’ll strip fitter for that run but may need softer ground, with his best form when trained by William McCreery coming on soft/heavy ground.

At the prices Mark’s Choice looks the value pick.

1pt win – Mark’s Choice – 10/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John