Today we have some snippets from a book review that is shortly to be published by the folks at the well respected Betting School Insiders Club. So I'll hand you over to Steve Carter Betting School Insiders Club Editor…
The publishers Raceform kindly provided a review copy of a new book, Well-Handicapped Horses, written by successful punter Jon Gibby and having had the opportunity to read and consider the methods he describes the initial impression is one of considerable merit.
In the opening chapter of the book Jon himself agrees wholeheartedly with that approach and that the methods described in his first book, Betting on Flat Handicaps written some ten years ago, had gradually and irrevocably become less profitable.
His new methodology concentrates on trying to uncover unexposed horses that may be open to improvement and also most importantly could well be under the radar of those stalwart form book followers who are enchanted by numbers and purport to turn the art of handicapping into an exact science.
In essence if there are valid reasons to suggest that a horse may be unexposed then it is by definition potentially well handicapped – hence the title of the book.
The million dollar question is do the methods described pass muster and can they offer a genuine way of uncovering relatively unexposed and therefore profitable horses to follow?
With this in mind we went back over the form book from the start of the current turf flat season and made a list of horses that seemed to fit the criteria described indicating that they could be well-handicapped.
For the period 30th May to the end of June our list of well-handicapped horses offered up 22 qualifying runs of which 7 of the selections won their races and generated a profit to SP of +12.13 points. In terms of Return on Investment this represents a very healthy +55%. The individual winners were Sabhan, Highland Colori, Barwick, Fireship, Willie Wag Tail, Lady Kashaan and Fast Or Free.
The profits were even better when taking into account the early prices with the best odds guaranteed bookmakers and the highlight amongst the winners was undoubtedly the victory at Royal Ascot of the William Haggas trained Fast or Free
The book concludes with details of 100 three-year-old horses that the author believes have shown enough in their 2yo campaigns to be potentially well-handicapped. Many of these have already had a run or two under their belts this season and a good number have won and the results overall are showing a profit.
One of the horses mentioned is due to make its seasonal debut later today and here are the authors thoughts on why he added this particular one to his list to follow:-
Kiwayu – This colt is well related so could turn out to be fairly decent despite its lowly rating of 69. His trainer suggested that he is a good looking horse from a great family but a little backward in his development. His 2yo runs indicate that he is crying out for a longer trip and should be up to winning two or more handicaps this season when he steps up to middle distances.
Today he is down to run at Lingfield (16.10) in a 12f Class 5 handicap and may possibly need this run after a break from the track of 288 days. Currently an 8/1 shot with Bet365 he may be worth some each-way support but whatever happens today is one to keep an eye on as his 3yo campaign progresses.
You can find out more about how you can get your hands on the complete review along with a trial of the full Betting School Insiders Club for just £1 here.
Todays Selection
Lingfield 4.10 Kiwayu – each way bet
Good article. BTW the man’s name is Haggas; he isn’t a well-known Scottish delicacy!
thanks Peter, corrected now