Chester Draw Bias

After my Pontefract post and the subsequent winners earlier in the week I got a lot of mails asking for details of more draw bias courses.

Today we have a meeting at Chester that has probably the best known draw bias in the country.

And that is a problem because any known advantage in racing is over bet and then is no longer profitable.

If we look at the overall strike rate for the stalls at Chester for this year and last we see the following strike rates.

Stall 1 = 18%
Stall 2 = 18%
Stall 3 = 15%

The highest of the others is 12%.

The return on investment for bets on stall 1 is – 0.95%, where as for stall 2 which has the same strike rate it's 27.95%.

That is because a lot of punters will be betting any horse in stall 1 regardless of ability.

The strike rate can be increased by only betting in races that start on a bend, those are the 5 and 6 furlong races and the 1 mile 3 furlong and 1 mile 4 furlong races.

Over the last 10 years the Horse Race Base shows that you would have made a profit backing both stall 1 and 2 in those races.

Because this bias is so well known I would recommend not backing all blindly but instead doing some additional research and look for horses that are likely to lead early and take advantage of their lucky draw.

For example in the 7.20 a 5f race Riskit fora Biskit has comments from previous races like ‘made all' & ‘led for 1 furlong' she sounds like a filly that will take advantage.

Smart Daisy K in the same race is also a prominent runner, it seems likely that these two will run well.

Todays Selection courtesy of Tipster Warehouse

Newmarket 1.40 Nardin – each way bet – 6/1 Bet Victor, Sporting Bet, Sky Bet