So following on from our successes at Pontefract and Chester recently I am routinely looking at the draw stats everyday for the days racing and I've found some strange numbers for Catterick.
More on those in a minute.
First up I'm still getting a lot of questions about the Mystery Horse Bot, so a quick update on that.
In June from when it was first released it has made 34.12 points profit after commission, so if you're staking a tenner a race that's £341.20.
It always surprises me how big some people stake these things, but I saw a screenshot the other day from a user who was staking £100 per race. So nearly £3500 for him!
So far in July it is 11.75 points up. There are still a few places here http://mysteryhorsebot.com
Ok so Catterick. I had a look this morning at the draw and there has been a profit following stall 2 in handicaps. You'll remember that I said the other day that using handicaps to research produced cleaner stats.
My next step was to break the results down by distance. The logic here being that the start and hence the stalls are in a different position for each distance.
Here's what I saw…
Now I dont know Catterick very well and the Racing Post site doesnt show the start position for 1m6f, but those numbers tell me there is a big advantage in play. The 1m4f actually is the 1m3f 214 yards.
Here's the numbers for all stalls in handicaps of between 1m4f and 1m6f.
27% for stall 2!
We have two races today over the 1m3f 214 yards, both handicaps, they are the 3.40 and the 4.40.
In the 3.40 the 7/4 favourite Al Thumama is in stall 2. In the 4.40 Only You Maggie has the stall. She is up in trip and has only 1 lifetime win even though she is 6 years old and is 22/1. It's hard to make a case for her even with the draw.
But stranger things have happened.
Today's Selection
Catterick 3.40 Al Thumama – win bet – 7/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor
I love this kind of analysis. However, in this case I think the sample size is too small. Unless there is a good reason for stall 2 to be so much better than 1 or 3 over these trips (or for stall 8 to be so much better than 7) then I’d suggest the strange figures are just down to randomness.
i must agree i can not see what affect draw could have in a race of this distance.having said that
al thumama is a strong bet for me from any draw.
cheers john.
Hi Dave-regarding the Mystery Horse bot:
Can u tell me-what sort of betting bank would be required?i.e 100xstakes or 200 or what??
Also-I am concerned that If i do sign up for this thing-will it be easy to implement the rules or,like everything else that I seem to join-will there be discrepancies over certain horses to back etc??
Have you yourself been using this bot since it started in June?
I need to know these things because-after going 12 months without a single losing month-I know that the first month I sign up-it will be a losing month-without fail!!Yes-cynical is my middle name!
Hi Mick, if it’s any help it lost today so at least you missed that one 😉
There’s nothing to do except switch it on and set it using the same settings as the help page, it then makes the decisions for you.
I think they’re recommending a 100 point bank.
But don’t you buy it and jinx it for the rest of us!!!
🙂 Dave
Fantastic analysis, again I’m not sure how the draw would affect this distance but what can’t speak can’t lie.
On a separate note I picked up a tip a few years back for non handicap races particularly 2 year olds. Take the first 3 in the betting, which ever did best last time out is the principle bet and the one that did next best is the danger, typically splitting your stake up for 2 pts on the principle and 1pt on the danger. Just using this simple method it’s amazing how many winners can be picked and how many non favorites come in at decent prices. Has anyone else noticed this? I have a feeling I maybe preaching to the converted.