Laying Debutants

Ok. so we've done some research on debutants that don't win as well as their prices suggest.

Looking at yesterdays qualifiers they all lost, some at huge prices (66/1) but also some at more realistic prices.

We don't have the Betfair SP's, so although we have a 40% advantage over SP it may not be a winning lay system at Betfair SP because when we get to the big prices Betfair SP can be more than 40% bigger then industry SP. And that may be a reason to exclude bigger priced horses.

If anybody wants to volunteer to look up the Betfair SP's for the 1500 or so qualifiers so far this year then I'd be pleased to hear from you 🙂

For now I'm going to start recording the Betfair SP's going forward and will keep a record to see how the system performs in real life as it were.

The rules I'm using is the horse is having it's first ever run, there is at least 1 other horse in the race that has had a run and I've excluded the trainers I listed on Wednesday.

I may add a pricing rule at a later date depending on the outcome of the Betfair SP research.

Here are today's (lay) qualifiers…

14:00:00 Chester 7 Right Behind You
14:10:00 Thirsk 10 Aramadyh
14:10:00 Thirsk 11 Tortoise
14:40:00 Thirsk 3 Highway Pursuit
14:40:00 Thirsk 4 Little Bruv
14:40:00 Thirsk 6 Mustamir (IRE)
15:20:00 Sandown 4 Cape Summit
15:20:00 Sandown 13 Mind
15:20:00 Sandown 14 Stampede (IRE)
16:25:00 Sandown 1 Dark Amber
17:10:00 Salisbury 1 Desert Ace (IRE)
17:30:00 Southwell 2 Quick Decision
17:45:00 Salisbury 5 Marmarus
19:50:00 Killarney 10 Tilthemidnighthour

Today's Selection

Southwell 7.00 Golden Jubilee – win bet – 6/1 Boylesports