Course Specialists

If there are gods of gambling I'm sure they are playing with us.

Yesterday we looked at courses where a course win was important.

So we're assuming that the course is particularly difficult for some reason and a horse that has won at the course previously has an advantage.

We combined that with jockeys that had at least 10 wins at the course and we came up with a list that included Yarmouth.

Here's the selections that were a fit for the criteria yesterday.

Of course I didn't bet them 🙁

The two biggest priced winners were horses that didn't have a win on the going which was good to soft.

We had a few questions in the comments yesterday…

What database do I use? This data comes from Horseracebase which offers a 3 day free trial and then requires a donation to continue, I pay 20 Euros per month but I think there is a cheaper option.

Can we look at the time since the Course and Distance win? HRB doesn't let me do that, I can look at races since a win which doesn't look to have any particular significance.

I have looked at the Jockey's overall strike rate, the horses age, days since last run and starting prices and can't find anything that will significantly improve the overall profit.

If we look at today's going it does show that Good to Soft is more profitable than any other going, but the bets would be so limited as to not be worthwhile following.

There is a qualifier at Yarmouth again today and thats Rocksilla in the 5.20.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this now but I'll let you know if it leads to anything.

Lay Debutants

14:20:00 Yarmouth 1 Al Senad
14:20:00 Yarmouth 3 Exceeding Power
14:20:00 Yarmouth 5 Mr Win (IRE)
14:20:00 Yarmouth 8 Templar Boy
14:35:00 Listowel 8 Smile Sweetly (IRE)
14:50:00 Yarmouth 3 Grand Meister
15:05:00 Listowel 2 Shipyard (USA)
15:30:00 Pontefract 6 La Noe
19:40:00 Kempton 5 Modus

Today's Selection

Pontefract 5.00 Travel – eachway bet – 14/1 Paddy Power, Bet Victor