We got back on track last Friday with a couple of winners at Fakenham (albeit at skinny odds) and Harry The Viking looked to have landed the spoils in the Grand National trial at an advised price of 20/1 only to lose it in the dying strides.
Today we have a quick look at the NH meetings from Exeter and Warwick and we have the trends analysis for the Betbright Chase and the Eider Chase on Saturday.
Paul Nicholls has won with 10 of his last 33 runners at Exeter (30% strike rate) for a level stakes profit of £10.00. He sends just two runners to the course today:
Exeter 2.20pm – Qualando @5/6
Exeter 4.50pm – Minellahalfcentury @4/1
Over at Warwick, Venetia William has won with 8 of her last 27 runners (30% strike rate) for a level stakes profit of £21.33 to level stakes.
She sends five over to the course today and the best chances appear to lie with:
Warwick 3.40pm Bennys Mist @10/1
Warwick 4.40pm Jeanpascal @5/2
For the Eider Chase our trends tell us we are looking for a horse carrying 11-00 or more (no more than 11-05 if the going is heavy), aged 10yo or younger, rated 131 – 139, has raced in the last 30 days, is in the top 3 in the betting and has raced over 3 ½ miles or further.
One horse ticks all the boxes and is joint third favourite with several bookies and that is David Pipe’s Soll.
Saturday Newcastle 2.55pm – Soll @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, William Hill)
In the Betbright Chase we are looking for a horse with a top 3 finish LTO, aged 7yo to 8yo, rated 140+ (ideally rated 143 – 147), has had a minimum of 3 seasonal runs, has won a race over 2m 5f or further, is in the top 5 in the betting and ideally trained by Paul Nicholls or Phillip Hobbs.
Phillip Hobbs has no horses entered and Paul Nicholls’ runners just fall down on one or two stats.
One who ticks all the boxes apart from the trainer box is Le Reve for Lucy Wadham.
However, I backed Rocky Creek earlier in the week @20/1 and money has come for him into 12’s and with Sam Twiston-Davies taking the ride I definitely want him on-side too.
Saturday Kempton 3.45pm – Le Reve @10/1 e/w & Rocky Creek @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Have a great weekend
Nick Hardman
http://betting-insiders.com
Soll has been withdrawn from the Eider Chase so Alpha Victor @8/1 (e/w) steps in as a suitable trends replacement. I am also backing potential trends buster Neptune Equester @25/1 (e/w)as he is still well handicapped on his old form and arrives on the back of a win in the Scottish Borders National.
Nick H.