Evening all,

It doesn’t get much better than this weekend, does it?  

We have the Betway Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on Friday. On Saturday we have the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton, the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree and Doncaster finally brings down the curtain down on the 2022 flat season. It’s the November Handicap at the latter track and it shows you how far Doncaster’s November Handicap has fallen in prestige. This former big ante-post race is arguably now the third biggest race of Saturday when it used to be the centrepiece.

Besides all the good stuff here. Across the Atlantic it’s the Breeders Cup at Keeneland. The action stateside gets underway on Friday, and you’ll be able to watch 14 races over the two days live on ITV.

I have been preparing a preview for the Breeders Cup which will be out tomorrow. And the more I looked at the Breeders Cup races the more excited I got.

Inside today’s main piece I begin this week’s look ahead to the big race action by previewing Saturday’s Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton.

There’s plenty to get stuck into today but let’s start with a look at the weather forecast/

Weather Watch

The ground at Wincanton was being described as good to firm, good in places on the chase card for Badger Beer Chase Day. Now there could be up to 30mm of rain at the track this week. However, looking at the going description they will need most of it to see some decent field sizes.

It’s good to soft, good in places on the National course for Saturday’s Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree. There could be 15mm of rain this week at Aintree which should ensure we get ideal jumping ground.

It’s soft at Doncaster for the final day of the flat season. Less rain is forecast than at the other two ITV tracks but it’s hard to see it being quicker than soft on Saturday.

Fingers are firmly crossed that the rain arrives at Wincanton.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1

The final confirmation entries for Saturday’s races came out on Monday. Eighteen were left in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (1:50). Just twenty one were left in Aintree’s Grand Sefton Handicap Chase. We’ll be very lucky to see sixteen go to post for the race over the National fences this season. Ironically the “forgotten race” the November Handicap is likely to see the biggest field of Saturday’s big handicap races as thirty were left in the Doncaster feature on Monday.

Besides all the action being covered on ITV there’s also Grade 1 action at Down Royal on Saturday where it’s the Ladbrokes Champion Steeplechase (2:32).  The race was won by Frodon last year and he’s been aimed at the race once more.

If all that wasn’t enough there’s more top quality racing on Sunday. The Irish flat season comes to an end at Naas where the highlight races are the The Irish EBF Birdcatcher Premier Handicap and The Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap. For jumps fans there’s also a normally informative card at Sandown.

Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (1:50)

Paul Nicholls is 6 winners from 30 runners +13.75 12 placed 40% with his runners in the race since 2008. He’s got three entered Enrilo who’s the ante post favourite and more intriguingly Frodon.  Enrilo can race off the same mark when first past the post in the 2021 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. However, he did fail to complete on three of his four starts last season.

I think Frodon is most likely to head to Down Royal for the Grade 1 he won 12 months ago. However. Should the ground be too soft across the Irish Sea he could head here instead. He’s a well handicapped horse if he was to take his place in the line-up. The third Nicholls entry is Broken Halo who made it 2-4 over fences when winning at Fontwell in March. He’s a progressive chaser and wouldn’t be without a chance if he ran. However, he’s also entered in the Grand Sefton at Aintree and Lorcan Williams has been jocked up for that race.

Aside from the Nicholls runners

Potterman has finished runner-up on the last two renewals of the race including on seasonal reappearance. Provided the ground is good I see no reason to think why he won’t do well again.  

El Presente won this in 2020 but was well beaten in last year’s race. He pulled up on his seasonal return at Chepstow last month, but all his five wins have come right handed. Questions over his wellbeing but he races off the same mark as two years ago.

Nine of the last 14 winners were Officially Rated (OR) 137-144 and were returned 16/1 @ under. There are just five horses in that OR banding: Enrilo. El Presente. Neville’s Cross, Broken Halo and The Big Breakaway. Our Power who won at Ascot last Saturday would also be there with his 4lb penalty but doesn’t seem a likely runner. The Big Breakaway has a good record fresh but would probably want easier ground and seems to be better going the other way around.

Wednesday Racing

There’s Listed action on the Flat at Nottingham on Wednesday afternoon with the Ben Marshall Stakes (2.16). Sadly, its only attracted five runners. Maybe all the horses have gone on their winter holidays. Or more likely it’s down to the likelihood of heavy ground.  

For those of you looking for some punting pointers here are some thoughts on the day’s action.

Nottingham

Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race) (2:16)

The one interesting of the five runners is Cash. We haven’t seen the 3-year-old since finishing a short-head 2nd of 6 to Westover in Classic Trial at Sandown in April. He looked open to plenty improvement and that’s already the best form on offer here. Heavy ground will ask another question of the colt and there doesn’t look to be a lot of pace on offer.

Majestic Dawn is likely to get an uncontested lead and he’s twice a winner on heavy ground. Tacarib Bay’s form figures on soft ground are 131. The 3-year-old put in another solid effort when a 3 length 3rd of 20 to Shelir in Balmoral Handicap at Ascot last time. He’s likely to be well positioned behind Majestic Dawn and likely won’t be far away. Irish challenger Power Under Me bounced back to winning ways on his first start at a mile at Leopardstown 11-days ago. Like Majestic Dawn he has a 3lb penalty to carry here but he’s unexposed over a mile and must be respected.

Earlier on the card

Earlier on the card there’s an interesting 1m ½ f maiden for 2-year-old’s. The race has been won by the likes of Desert Crown, Mishriff and Space Blues in recent years. It looks like the ground will be very testing which will make it a stamina test. Garden Route holds a Derby entry, and the colt shaped with plenty of promise when third on his Newmarket racecourse debut. There should be more to come from the colt, but heavy ground would be an unknown.

Chesspiece, a son of Nathaniel, is likely to be seen at his best as a 3-year-old but could be sharp enough to win this on racecourse debut. He’s one to note for next season. Racecourse debutant Bodygroove is one to note should he receive market support on his debut. Alshadhian shaped promisingly enough when 4^th of 10 over C&D last month. He seemed to handle soft ground well enough that day and should improve with racing.

Chepstow

Calico hasn’t proved to be the most resolute in a finish over hurdles, but you couldn’t really fault his 3 ¼ length 2^nd of 15 at Cheltenham on his seasonal return 12-days ago. Back over fences in the Novices Limited Handicap Chase (2:52) and should go well. Albeit he’s not one I would want to take a short price about.

Musselburgh

North of the border jump racing is back at Musselburgh.  Izzy’s Champion won over C&D in March and is 5lb lower and must be respected in the two mile handicap chase (2:37).

Living’s Boy An Co continued his recent improvement over fences when comfortably beating seven rivals at Market Rasen 18-days ago.  Hit by a 10lb rise but that probably won’t stop the 7-year-old if in the same form as last time.

Kempton

It may pay to side with a couple of previous C&D winners in Soar Above (6:30) and Aramis Grey (7:00).  Soar Above is back on the mark he won off over C&D in April. Not as good on grass on his last three starts but he’s a much better horse here – 8 wins from 23 runs 13 placed.

Aramis Grey gained a well deserved success for some consistent recent efforts when winning at Chelmsford 25-days ago.  Now 6 wins from 24 runs 17 placed on the synthetics, only 2lb higher than last time and has handy low draw in stall 3. The mare’s biggest rival could be Apollo One. The 4-year-old is on a losing run of 13 but was back to form when a 3 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to City Walk at Chelmsford last time.  I think he’s on a winnable enough mark and he might get the run of the race out in front.

Al Azhar ran better than his 3 ¼ lengths 6th of 12 at Wolverhampton last time suggests. Provided he’s not ridden as far back as at Wolverhampton then I think he’ll go close in the 7:30. The 3-year-old ran well on his only start at Kempton last December so should be fine on the track.

Wednesday Selection:

I'm tempted to take a chance on Tacarib Bay in the Nottingham feature race. However, I’m off to Kempton for what could be the day's best bet.

Kempton

7:00 – Apollo One

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John