Good morning all,

Well, we’ve covered off the big five races now, and with the handicap weights out earlier in the week, it makes a bit of sense to take a look at some of those today. As much as we are ante-post NRNB, we’re getting to the point that, unless we know for a fact we’ve got the right race and the right price, we may as well hang on and get the extra places in a couple of weeks time. There is one, though, that now looks a lot more interesting given the trainer’s comments earlier in the week. Read on….

Pertemps Hurdle 

The one that now becomes a bit more interesting than perhaps he was is Sire Du Berlais. Given how open the Stayers Hurdle looks, I was convinced they would take their chance in that, but the handicapper has given him a bit of a chance off a mark of 156 and now we find out that the talented amateur, Rob James, is going to take another 7lb off that, he looks to have been given a decent crack of the whip. Gordon Elliott seemed keen….

Age, of course, is an issue but all the same, his Festival record is so good, and some soft ground (looking all the more likely according to the forecasts) would definitely help his cause. 

Sadly for my ante-post bet, I don’t think Brorson is going to get in. I was keen on Martin Keighley’s improving 6yo for this, but off 130 he’s going to need a fair few above him to be scratched. He’ll want it to dry up, too. 

Grand Annual 

One ante-post bet I have had is Before Midnight for the Grand Annual. Impressive in two wins, including one at Cheltenham, in the autumn, he was out of his depth in the Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas but even there, just for a stride or two, had all his three opponents (including Shiskin) at it with his front-running tactics and once beaten, wasn’t given a hard time. He lost nothing at all in defeat at Doncaster behind Funambule Sivola last time, rallying well after the last and only worn down in the final strides, and a quick word with Sam Thomas after revealed what I thought might be the plan, namely a break and then the Grand Annual. 

Of the Irish, A Wave Of The Sea has only run moderately here a couple of times but after trying him over further for much of the season, looked a much better prospect dropped back to 17f at Leopardstown last time, winning a 50k handicap with easily. A mark of 150 is as high as you’d like, but now he’s found his mojo again, he could go well here, and I like him as a back-up for the race, given he’ll be held up. 

Coral Cup

I’ve had Unexpected Party as a likely one for the Coral Cup since his easy Ascot win, with Dan Skelton keeping him fresh for this no bad thing, and he has to be on anyone’s shortlist. But hold on a minute – let’s go back to his Cheltenham run in November where he found Gowel Road 2½l too good for him. Nearly everything from the yard was fit and ready to run it’s race that weekend, so there’s no reason to suppose he was in need of it. Indeed, my notes from the time say how very fit he was. Gowel Road gave him a stone there, and only has to give him 2lb here so he too must have a solid chance, and yet he’s twice the odds. 

That’s because Gowel Road has been beaten twice since, but both those runs were at two miles, and he doesn’t really have the speed for that trip. Back up in trip here I expect him to confirm the November form, and at 16-1, he is definitely worthy of consideration. 

Drop The Anchor was one that went in the notebook after his never-nearer fifth at Leopardstown last time, but for the County rather than this, given he’s unproven at the trip. Imagine my surprise then when he didn’t get an entry for the latter, just the Coral Cup. Does Pat Fahy think he’ll stay? He’ll be given every chance as he’ll be ridden cold, and after his close seventh to Belfast Banter in the County last year, should come up the hill if his stamina lasts out. One for backing on the day with the extra places, for sure. 

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

It was interesting to hear the handicappers say on Tuesday that the days of this being won by a lovely old boy from the yards is long over, with the last three winners all having come from Ireland, all just seven years old, and all having progressive profiles. 

Top weight Frontal Assault fits all those criteria here. A Grade 3 winner over hurdles, everything that could go wrong did when he was eighth to Galopin Des Champs in the Martin Pipe on his next start, but still caught the eye finishing off well. Handicapped over fences on just the three runs, he was only beaten ½l in a beginners chase at Fairyhouse last time, and with Gordon Elliott having the 1-2-3 there, he’s got a good idea how that form rates. 

Powerstown Park, if he gets in, is going to be a big price but he is making up into a good staying chaser, and won with more in hand than the official margin suggests at Hereford last time. That form will need improving upon, and he needs to cut out the late mistakes, but he travels so strongly in his races that you could see a test like this suiting him. One to back on the day, with six places very likely. He might well go at Doncaster tomorrow in an effort to get the penalty he needs to get in.

On to today, and speaking of the Cheltenham weights, old Risk And Roll won’t be running in the Pertemps as it stands as he’s likely to miss the cut, but a win at Newbury gets him a penalty and a guaranteed spot in the line up. Whilst he might find the Pertemps too warm, I know his owner is a Cheltenham local that likes nothing better than to see his horses run there. You can guarantee he’ll be trying for his life to get in, and he was only just behind Coeur De Lion last time, so has a similar chance today. He’ll not mind the ground either. Looks an good each-way bet at the price.

Todays's selection – Risk And Roll e/w 4.05 Newbury

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.