The Newmarket July meeting is underway and today’s card features the Falmouth Stakes. Saturday’s feature race is the July Stakes but we will sidestep those two races and have a crack at the two big handicaps at the weekend – the Bunbury Cup from Newmarket and the John Smith’s Cup from York.
We begin with the Bunbury Cup and the last 8 renewals have all been won by horses in the 4yo to 6yo bracket.
3yo runners are 1-21 and older horses (7yo and older) are 3-43, although two of those wins were by Mine at the ages of 7 and 8. All bar 1 of the last 18 winners had previous winning form over 7f.
In fact horses without a win over this specialist trip are 1-105 since 1997.
A run in the 8 to 60 days prior to this race accounts for all of the last 18 winners (albeit from nearly all the runners) but that might help strike a line through 1 or 2 in the field.
Similarly, all of the last 18 winners had raced 2 to 6 times that season. 16 of the last 18 winners had raced over a mile or further in their career and all bar 3 of the last 18 winners came from the top 6 in the betting market.
11 of the last 12 winners all carried 9st or more to victory and all of the last 11 winners were rated 93 to 105 with 8 of those rated at least 96.
From those in the top 6 in the betting we are left with Ayaar, Chil The Kite and Jallota.
Of the three I think Jallota rates a bit of value at the current prices.
Elsewhere, I think Bronze Angel’s turn is not too far away and he is just 2lbs above his last wining mark. He led a furlong out in the Royal Hunt Cup and faded into to 6th. That was over a mile and similar tactics over 7f could see him reach the frame.
Bunbury Cup (Newmarket, Saturday)
Jallota @14/1 e/w
Bronze Angel @14/1 e/w
In the John Smith’s Yorkshire Cup all of the winners since 1997 have been aged 3, 4 or 5yo.
However, Wigmore Hall was the last 3yo winner in 2010 and in doing so became the first since Foreign Affairs in 2001. 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5yo.
The top 9 horses in the betting have provided the winner in 17 of the last 18 renewals but we have still had some big priced winners at 33/1, 20/1 (3 times) 25/1 and 16/1 in that time.
Last year’s winner Farraaj lugged 9st 11lbs to victory off a rating of 111. That was some feat as the previous 8 winners all carried under 9st. 7 of those 8 previous winners carried between 8st 8lbs and 8st 12lbs.
Interestingly, between 2006 and 2011 the winners were all ridden by claimers. 9 of the last 11 winners and all of the last 7 winners exited from stall 12 or higher.
Horses with a 1st or 2nd place finish in one of their last 2 starts have won 10 of the last 11 renewals and 10 of the last 11 winners raced in a class 3 or higher race last time out.
That leaves just one trends qualifier in the top 9 in the betting and it is Sennockian Star. Of those at bigger prices, the lightly raced Voice Of A Leader is interesting on the back of his C&D 4th to Mahsoob when he tackled this trip for the first time.
John Smith’s Cup (York, Saturday)
Sennockian Star @12/1 e/w
Voice Of A Leader @20/1 e/w
On the Newmarket card today, Ballymore Castle is an interesting runner in the Bunbury Cup consolation race. He was a decent juvenile finishing 2nd in the Woodcote Stakes Listed race, 3rd in the Tattersalls Median Auction Trophy and was not disgraced in the £280k Tattersalls 2yo Trophy.
First time out this season he was 2nd to Bossy Guest in the Tattersalls 3yo Sprint Trophy and that form gives him each-way claims claims here:
Newmarket 4.55pm
Ballymore Castle @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)