Can Nick Hardman from Betting Insiders repeat his success with last years column when he tipped the Cambridgeshire winner?
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Here's Nick…
Last year the trends analysis pinpointed Bronze Angel as a potential winner of the Cambridgeshire and he did just that at an SP of 14/1 (advised 20/1) and this weekend sees the 2015 renewal of one of the oldest handicap races in the UK.
Here is a reminder of the race trends that picked out last year’s winner.
First up it looks like a top 5 finish is a good pointer and accounts for 16 of the last 18 winners.
Horses that have had 5 – 8 runs that season account for 12 winners since 1997, so we may be looking at a reasonably well campaigned horse.
Horses with more than 8 runs in the current season are 0 – 113.
15 of the last 18 winners had all raced over at least 1m 1f or beyond at some point in their lives.
Perhaps surprisingly for a big handicap, 9 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting and 14 came from the first 9 in the betting (in a field of 30 that does help narrow things down from a trends perspective).
12 winners since 1997 had also won over further than the 1m 1f trip.
Only 2 horses since 1997 have carried 9st 5lb or more to victory but all of the last 10 winners carried 8st 7lb or higher.
No horse older than 6 has won this race in that time.
From a ratings perspective, 11 of the last 13 winners were rated 95 – 104.
Unfortunately no horse ticks all those boxes. Those who come closest are Express Himself, Third Time Lucky and Nafaqa.
The last named has struggled over 10f but was previously 2nd over a mile in the Craven and also in the Royal Lodge (Group 2). A drop in trip looks a good move.
Express Himself is just shy of our ratings band of 95 – 104, racing here off 93 and Third Time Lucky has yet to race beyond a mile but may improve for the extra furlong.
Cambridgeshire trends horses:
Nafaqa @20/1 (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Express Himself @22/1 (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet, 25/1 generally, 5 places)
Third Time Lucky @12/1 (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet, 14/1 generally, 5 places)
For today Jonjo O’Neill has some interesting runners at Worcester. His last 4 runners have produced two winners and 2 runners-up. He saddles Hawaii Five Nil, Upswing, Strongly Suggested and Will Take Charge today and all can be given chances.
Jonjo O’Neill runners at Worcester
1.50pm Hawaii Five Nil @10/3 888bet
2.20pm Upswing 11/2 Sportingbet
2.55pm Strongly Suggested @6/1 Betfred
3.30pm Will Take Charge @5/1 Betway
Strongly Suggested is the one that interests me the most at the prices.
Today's Selection
2.55 Worcester Strongly Suggested – 6/1 Betfred