Hi all,

If the Cheltenham Festival isn't of interest to you, then you'll be pleased that these are my final thoughts on the event for 2024. Like all those seemingly endless Cheltenham Preview nights, the time for speculation has ended; now, it's all about the action on the track.

Tomorrow, I'll be focusing on Saturday's racing, and on Monday, I'll be reviewing Saturday’s action. Monday's column won't be entirely devoid of Cheltenham content, as I'll likely provide a weather and going update.

Cheltenham Festival week is undoubtedly the busiest time of the year for me. In addition to producing 28 previews for my subscribers, I'll also be previewing a race a day for Geegeez. As a result, my Daily Punt columns next week won't be as detailed as usual. I'll focus on previewing one race per day and, if time permits, reflect on the previous day's racing. Oh, and I might put up some ‘fun’ jackpot and placepot selections.

Final Thoughts on Festival Trends & Stats

I had intended to conclude my thoughts on the Cheltenham Festival with a final set of trends, but I've reached peak trends. Instead, I'll emphasize the importance of using trends and statistics as tools rather than absolutes. This principle applies not only to the upcoming Cheltenham Festival but to all major races and festivals. Otherwise, there's a risk of blindly backing horses that fit all the trends without considering other factors.

It's crucial to focus on trends that lead you to under-bet horses while being cautious with trends that lack clear explanations. For instance, in the Champion Chase, odds-on favourites have performed poorly with just 3 winners from 10 runners since 2009, contrasting sharply with the Arkle Chase, where odds-on favourites have a perfect record of 7 winners from 7 runners.

I can't explain why odds-on favourites have struggled in the Champion Chase; I wouldn't let this trend deter me from betting on a horse like El Fabiolo if I believed in his chances.

Cheltenham Festival Market Movers

I typically disregard market movers. However, I thought I would share with you 11 horses that have come in for what I believe is notable market support in recent days:

• Hunters Yarn – Willie Mullins – Arkle.
• Predators Gold – Willie Mullins – Gallagher (Baring Bingham) Novices’ Hurdle.
• Quai De Bourbon – Willie Mullins – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
• Ose Partir – Martin Brassil – Boodles Juvenile Hurdle.
• Quilixios – Henry De Bromhead – Arkle
• Monty’s Star – Henry De Bromhead – Brown Advisory.
• Gabbys Cross – Henry De Bromhead – Pertemps Hurdle Final.
• Flooring Porter – Gavin Cromwell – National Hunt Chase.
• My Mate Mozzie – Gavin Cromwell – Grand Annual.
• King Of Kingsfield – Gordon Elliott – County Hurdle.
• Romeo Coolio – Gordon Elliott – Champion Bumper.

Shrewd Moves or Tipster Influence?

The above horses have garnered support, partly influenced by the final round of Cheltenham Preview Nights, but also likely due to stable confidence. I'm heartened to note that Monty's Star has received backing in the Brown Advisory, and several others on my race shortlists are also seeing good support. This could be shrewd money and I wouldn’t be surprised to see two or three winners come from the list.

The Arkle Novices' Chase doesn’t look a good renewal quality wise but is set to deliver an exciting race despite Marine Nationale's absence. Both Hunters Yarn and Quilixios have gained support. Johnny Dineen expressed confidence in Quilixios during one of the Cheltenham Previews I watched, and it's understandable considering the impressive jumping displayed by the 7-year-old at Naas last time out.

Among the others, Ose Partir, trained by the astute Martin Brasill, merits consideration for the Boodles. Meanwhile, Romeo Coolio catches the eye in the Champion Bumper. With a pedigree from the renowned sire Kayf Tara, known for success in heavy-going conditions.

Betting Plans for the Festival

An incredible number of readers of the column have opted to join my Victor Value service for March. Those who have joined you will get twenty-eight race previews which will be sent the day before racing and selections and betting advice on the morning of racing.

With the final entries for Tuesday and Wednesday's races now revealed, it's time to delve deep into the analysis and get thoroughly involved in the races for those two days.

My primary focus lies in crafting shortlists, dedicating substantial time to each race. Typically, I then allocate no more than an hour per race to finalize my selections. While there are races, I may opt not to play in, there’s still plenty of work to be done.

It's been quite a while since I refrained from placing a bet on the opening race of the festival, the Supreme, but this year might see that change. While there are a couple of contenders still catching my eye for the race, if they don't end up participating, I'll opt out of placing any bets. This same principle could also extend to the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle, which kicks off Wednesday's card. Conversely, I don’t normally bother with the Cross-Country race but this year I’m likely to have a bet in.

The key to a profitable week at the festival is to be ahead after the first two days. It gets harder on Thursday and if you need a big day on Friday then you’re in trouble. Friday is traditionally the toughest day for punters. Since 2017 favourites have won 36% of the races on Wednesday but on Friday that figure drops to 22%.

This year’s festival is going to be different one for me. Let’s just hope it’s a profitable one like last year. 

Friday Preview

I'm content to pass on Friday's racing, as it mirrors the meagre offerings we've seen throughout this week.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John