Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece there’s more Cheltenham Festival stats for you to consider. Plus, I’m looking at Saturday’s big betting race Sandown’s Imperial Cup.

Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Update:

I thought I would be going into the Cheltenham Festival with a much bigger ante post portfolio. I’ve had five bets, all advised in this column. One of them Inthepocket won’t run at the festival due to injury that leaves four still hanging on.

Gentlemansgame – Gold Cup – 25/1.

Irish Point – Stayers Hurdle – 20/1.

Monty’s Star – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 20/1.

Gidleigh Park – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle – 20/1.

It seems probable that Gentlemansgame and Monty's Star will compete in their respective races. Additionally, there's growing speculation that trainer Harry Fry will opt to run Gidleigh Park in the Albert Bartlett. However, the uncertainty lies with Irish Point. I think he WINS the Stayers Hurdle on good to soft or better ground. But will connections run him?  With Constitution Hill out of the Champion Hurdle he’s seemingly heading for the shorter race. He’s the most heartbreaking of all my festival ante post bets.

If one of my four selections manages to win, I'll be on track for a decent festival. If two succeed, I'll be looking at a nice profit. Well, we can always dream.

My race shortlists are complete, and now it's time to narrow them down to my final selections. The County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle on Friday are shaping up to be the most fiercely contested races of the four days. I've identified 14 potential contenders for the County and 11 for the Martin Pipe. The rest of the races have more manageable shortlists.

While I’ll typically place bets in maybe 90% of the races, I'll be delaying my selections until the last possible moment. There's talk of the water table at Cheltenham being high this year. If there's heavier rainfall than forecast over the weekend, the ground could be testing on Tuesday.

More Cheltenham Festival Stats

Today my look at the Cheltenham Festival trends and stats focuses on some negative ones.

Will Mullins Have a Handicap Chase Winner?

Willie Mullins wins more races at the Cheltenham Festival than any other trainers and will do so again this year. Here’s the top trainers at the meeting numerically since 2017.

However, there is one race type he’s struggled with and its handicap chasers. Since 2010 he’s – 0 winners from 33 runners, 7 placed with his festival handicap chasers. Indeed, he’s never trained a handicap chase winner at the festival.

Willie has got the 11/2 ante post favourite Meetingofthewaters for this year’s Ultima Handicap Chase. The horse has a good chance form wise but at the price he’s one I can happily let win.

Underperforming Trainers:

Yesterday I looked trainers who are punching above their weight in handicaps at the festival. Today the focus on a group of underperforming trainers.

Here are a group of nine trainers who have produced the following set of results since 2017.

Here’s how they have performed by year.

Here’s the breakdown by trainer.

Since 2020 our group of trainers are just 1 winner from 205 runners. That’s a shocking set of stats from some very good trainers, especially when you consider the Exp/Wins should be 12

Of the above trainers Fergal O’Brien has a couple of serious contenders for Cheltenham glory in Crambo (Stayers Hurdle) and Dysart Enos (Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle). Meanwhile Nigel Twiston-Davies has course specialist Broadway Boy (National Hunt Chase).

Looking Ahead to the Weekend

The Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival brings racing from Sandown with their Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle the day’s feature race. It’s a race with plenty history dating back to 1907 and it’s an older race than the Champion Hurdle.

Sandown's meeting includes the Betfair Imperial Cup (2:25), along with the EBF Final (1.50) and a Listed mares' bumper (3:00). These three races, along with two races from Wolverhampton, the Listed BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes (2.40) and BetMGM Lincoln Trial (3.15), will be broadcast live on ITV4.

Sandown: Betfair Imperial Cup

The race's prestige has declined recent years with Cheltenham Festival races like the County Hurdle becoming more a draw for connections. Additionally, Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle, held last Saturday over the same distance as the Imperial Cup, adds to the competition. Despite these factors, it would be disappointing if there weren't 14 runners for this year's race.

Trends:

Delving into the Imperial Cup trends which contain 15 winners from 272 runners, 55 placed.

All 15 winners were aged four to eight – with 9-year-old’s and older being 0 winners from 21 runners, 1 placed.

All 15 winners had between 1 and 2 previous hurdle wins. Runners with 0 hurdle wins or three or more wins are 0 winners from 118 runners. 20 placed.

Thirteen winners from 163 runners +9.08, 34 placed were returning from 16 to 45 day layoff.

The top performing trainers with entries in this year’s race are:

Paul Nicholls – 2 winners from 16 runners -2pts, 5 placed

Nigel Twiston-Davies – 2 winners from 4 runners +27.  

Philip Hobbs – 1 winner from 9 runners, 4 placed, Dan Skelton 1 winner from 9 runners – 1, 3 placed and Charlie Longsdon – 1 winner from 4 runners +17 also had entries.

Pauling’s Strong Hand

Twenty three were left in the Imperial Cup at Monday’s final confirmation stage. The Ben Pauling pair of Jipcot (7/2) and Bad (6/1) were the front two in the ante post betting with the sponsors. It looks like both will run as jockey’s have been booked for the pair.

Jipcot took advantage of a drop in class on a return to hurdling to win at Huntingdon last week. He gets a 7lb penalty for that win but looked a class above his opponents last time and well ahead of his mark. He’s a best priced 5/1 with William Hill which looks more realistic than the 7/2 with the sponsors.

What can you say about Bad? He needs a strong pace and to be produced as late of possible if he’s to win. Nudged up 4lb for his recent head 2^nd of 16 at Ascot. The ability is there to win off his present mark but he’s 0-6 in handicap hurdles now. He’s just 6/1 with the sponsors but the 8/1 available with William Hill looks fairer.

More Contenders:

Last year’s runner-up Knickerbockerglory was a respectable 11 length 6^th of 21 in the Betfair Hurdle last time. However, he’s 6lb higher than 12 months ago. Stablemate Goonhilly looks on  fair mark for his handicap debut but he’s a maiden over hurdles at they 0 winners from 15 runners, 3 placed in the race since 2008.

Go Dante was a 8 ¼ length 3^rd of 21 in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He would have claims on that performance although he’s won three times over hurdles.

Making Headway made all to win a Newbury novice hurdle (heavy) last month. He got an easy lead last time but is open to more improvement. The 6-year-old looks on a workable mark for his handicap debut and must be high on the shortlist.

Georgi Girl has improved to win her last two starts in lesser handicaps. One of those successes came over C&D but she shapes like she might need further than two miles.

Chester Cup winner Metier is down to his last winning mark over hurdles but did pull up in last year’s race on his favoured heavy ground.

Sans Bruit would be an interesting runner from the Paul Nicholls yard. Looking at the Timeform rating’s he’s on a good mark based on his French form. There was a bit of promise on his stable debut 7th of 13 at Doncaster 35 days ago. A multiple winner in France, the hood he normally was left of last time. He might need testing ground to be seen at his best.

That's me done with Cheltenham Festival stats for another year.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John