Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to the best of the action on day one of Chester’s May Festival.

Racing returns to Chester for the first time this season with its annual three day May meeting getting underway on Wednesday.

ITV racing will be covering five races live from the meeting on each of the three days.

Chester May Meeting

To get into the mood for the meeting I thought I would use horseracebase.com to have a look at some trainer and draw stats.

Trainers:

Looking at the stats for Chester’s May Meeting since 2017. Here’s a list of those trainers who’ve had three+ winners at the meeting.

One trainer’s figure's stand out and it’s Aidan O’Brien. O’Brien has had twice as many winners as his nearest rival and was 3 winners from 5 +2.56, 4 placed in 2023.

O’Brien comes into this year’s meeting on the back of a disappointing effort by City Of Troy in the 2000 Guineas. However, he came to last year’s meeting after a number of disappointing efforts at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting.

Seventeen of O’Brien’s 18 winners were ridden by Ryan Moore and all of them were in the first three in the betting.

That’s one hell of a win strike rate with O’Brien & Moore operating 85% above market expectations.

Draw:

Many words will be uttered about the importance of a low draw at Chester. So, I decided to look at it in relationship to handicap races at the meeting.

5f

There have been 12 handicaps over 5f at Chester’s May Meeting since 2017. Here’s breakdown by draw segment.

All 12 winners were drawn in the first six stalls and those drawn 7+ are – 0 winners from 35 runners, 7 places.

7f & 7 ½ f

There have been 18 handicaps over 7f or 7 ½ f and here are the draw stats by segment.

A position in the first half of the draw has once again been important over these distances with just 4 of the 18 winners being drawn in the second half of the draw.  Thos drawn in stall 9+ are – 2 winners from 71 runners -58, 9 placed.

In the last two seasons Hodler defied stall 12 to win last year and Ffion overcame stall 111 in 2022.  Both wins came on testing ground and both winners were held up and benefitted from a strong pace in their respective races. So, whilst I wouldn’t be totally put off if my selection was in a double-digit draw, they will need all the cards to fall right.

Day 1

The going at Chester was officially described as good on Tuesday. Surprisingly, given the current spring weather, there's very little rainfall forecasted for the next three days.

The feature races on day one are the Listed Cheshire Oaks (3:05) and the Group 3 Chester Vase (3:40). Neither race has a big field, but both look like intriguing contests that should be informative going forward.

3:05 – Cheshire Oaks (Fillies' Listed) – 1m 3f

Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the Cheshire Oaks five times in the past eight years. He run two in this year’s race. Port Fairy who won at Dundalk on her seasonal return and Rubies Are Red who is a full sister to Found. Ryan Moore seemingly opts for Port Fairy who should appreciate the drying ground. The latter sentiment also applies to Rubies Are Red who has a nice low draw in stall 3.

The Gosden yard have won this with Enable (2017) and Mehdaayih (2019) and they saddle Beeley who was runner-up to stablemate at Sandown last month on her seasonal return and should be capable of winning races.

Despite the presence of fillies form the O’Brien and Gosden yard the early bird favourite is Forest Fairy. The Ralph Beckett trained daughter of Waldgeist looked a smart prospect when winning at Wolverhampton on her racecourse debut in February. Trainer came off the cold list over the weekend so Forest Fairy should be set for a good run.

Galileo Dame doesn’t hold an Oaks entry but looked a Group class filly when beating Rubies Are Red on her seasonal return at Leopardstown last month. It was heavy the last day but if she’s as effective on quicker ground she must be in the mix.

3:40 – Chester Vase (Group 3) – 1m 4f

Just the six runners for this Epsom Derby Trial, albeit you must go back to 2013 for the last colt to do the Chester Vase/Epsom Derby Double. However, Wings Of Eagles runner-up in the 2017 Vase did go onto success in that seasons Derby.

Aidan O’Brien brings over Grosvenor Square who made all to win a Group 3 at Leopardstown on his final juvenile start.  Stamina looks like the colt's long suit and he’s capable of more improvement this season. He’s a best 16/1 for the Derby and given the potential lack of early pace could get his own way out in front from stall 1.

O’Brien also saddles Dundalk winner Agenda. The colt can’t be dismissed as he should be well suited 1m 4f as a 3-year-old.

Charlie Appleby saddles Hidden Law who impressed when winning a Newbury maiden 18 days ago. If he handles Chester’s ‘twists and turns’ he’s a big contender.

Cadogan Place beat Hidden Law a short head at Southwell on his racecourse debut 41 days ago. The son of Frankel looked a smart prospect last time and he had the better turn of foot than Hidden Law that day. Looks another improver and should be thereabouts.

The Gosden yard won this last year with Arrest and rely on Poppano who got off the mark at the second attempt when winning a Wolverhampton novice (1m 4f) 37-days ago. He needs to settle better than he did last time but is capable of better.

Chester May meeting selections:

It's a low-key start to the Chester May meeting for me. I have three bets in the handicap races which I have put up for Victor Value subscribers this morning but apart from that not much catches the eye. Hopefully there's better to come as the week progresses because the two big races apart the rest don't excite me much.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John