Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders and Nick gives us some pointers for the Chester meeting which kicks off today.
Chester Tips
Affectionately known as The Roodee, Chester racecourse is a flat left handed course with tight bends.
One circuit of the course is just over 1 mile in distance. Horses are constantly on the turn and with such a short run in off the final bend it is very difficult for horses to win coming from off the pace.
Front runners and horses that race prominently are those that typically do well here. It takes a particular kind of a horse to win here, a jockey who knows how to ride here and also a trainer who knows the type off horse to be suited by the tight turns of the track.
One trainer who has an excellent recent record at Chester is Roger Varian. In the past 3 seasons he has sent out 5 winners from 18 runners at the course to a level stakes profit of £16.20.
Roger Varian – Chester runners 2012 – 2014
| Runs |
Wins |
% win |
Place |
% place |
P/L (£1 win) |
|
18 |
5 |
28 |
6 |
33 |
+16.20 |
However, if we dig a little deeper we can see that it pays to follow his 3yo runners in particular at Chester:
Roger Varian – 3yo Chester runners 2012 – 2014
|
Runs |
Wins |
% win |
Place |
% place |
P/L (£1 win) |
|
13 |
5 |
38 |
6 |
46 |
+21.20 |
On Friday evening he runs a 3yo by the name of Tears Of The Sun in 1m 2f fillies handicap (7.20pm). A winner last time out, she is up 6lb and has a handy draw in stall 2.
She is Roger Varian’s sole runner at the course on Friday and looks sure to go well.
Since 2010, Mark Johnston has notched up 35 winners at the course from 224 runners at a strike rate of 16%. However, he is just 2-23 this season with his horses at the Roodee.
No-one rides Chester better than Franny Norton and when he teams up with Mark
Johnston they form a potent partnership.
Since 2010 they are 13-63 at a strike rate of 21%. This season though they are 1-10. The Johnston/ Norton combo teams up with Disavow (6.20pm), Alpine Storm (6.50pm), Maracuja (7.20pm) and Crafted (9.00pm).
Crafted is the most interesting over 7 ½ furlongs, a trip that has seen the Johnston/ Norton combination bag 3 wins from 7 runners since 2010 for a healthy strike rate of 43% and a level stakes profit of £16.33.
Richard Fahey is a trainer who sends a lot of horses to Chester and it is his 2yo runners in non-handicaps who are worth noting.
They are 11-39 for a level stakes profit of £22.24 at a healthy strike rate of 28% since 2010. Twenty-two of those runners hit the places and each-way backers would have increased their level stakes profit to £43.63.
Richard Fahey – 2yo non-handicap races Chester 2010 – 2014
|
Runs |
Wins |
% win |
Place |
% place |
P/L (£1 win) |
P/L (e/w) |
|
39 |
11 |
28 |
23 |
59 |
+22.24 |
+43.63 |
On Friday he runs 2yo filly Super Quick in the 7f maiden (6.20pm) and she looks to have a cracking chance.