Evening all,

We had plenty of rain on Wednesday and the going at Nottingham on Wednesday turned soft. The rain will please the water companies and our jumps racecourses.

The 2022-23 NH season has been up and running since April 30th. However, the real winter jumps action begins to kick into gear with the Unibet Jump Season Opener at Chepstow on Friday & Saturday. Chepstow could do with some rain. The going at the track on Wednesday morning was being described as good to firm and that with watering. Let’s hope that some of the heavy rain we’ve had in Yorkshire has headed to Wales.

Inside today’s main piece I continue to look ahead to the Saturday’s big race action with the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes coming under the big race microscope. Plus, you'll find a selection from Chelmsford's evening card.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 2

The final declarations for Friday came out on Wednesday lunchtime. The unbeaten Commissioning takes on seven rivals in the Group 1 bet365 Fillies' Mile (3:25). The field sizes at Newmarket look good with sixteen declared for the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (4:10).

There are even bigger fields declared for the York card on Friday. It will be interesting to see how much rain fell at the track on Wednesday. I know we had a lot where I live which isn’t to far away.

It’s been very low key week racing wise. However, it does take a significant step up in quality on Friday. I can’t remember when ITV has ever covered TEN races live outside of a Saturday, but they are on Friday. If you’re lucky to be at home its going to be a case of getting your favourite brew and settling down to watch a nearly three hours of wall to wall action.

The feature race of Chepstow's two-day ‘Jumps Season Opener' is the Unibet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2.10). Fun fact but by the time you read this there will be just 159 days to the start of the Cheltenham Festival.

Dewhurst Stakes – Newmarket

Saturday’s big betting race maybe Cesarewitch Handicap but the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes is the most valuable. It’s not a race I wouldn't normally preview but this year’s renewal looks a good one.

The Dewhurst Stakes is arguably the premier two-year-old race held in Europe during the flat season and often serves as a big pointer for the following season's classics. The likes of Nijinsky (1969). Mill Reef (1970), Grundy (1974), El Gran Senor (1983) and of course Frankel in 2010 are all previous winners of the race.

The most recent winner of the Dewhurst Stakes was Native Trail who went onto win the Irish 2,000 Guineas this year.  St Mark's Basilica the 2020 winner went onto win the Poule d'Essai des Poulains and Prix du Jockey Club as a 3-year-old.

The winning most trainer since 2009 is Aidan O’Brien with six successes and Charlie Appleby has saddled the winner twice in 2019 and 2021.

Favourite backers have enjoyed 8 winners from 14 bets 10 placed since 2008. However, if you had backed them all you would have made £0.54 loss to a £1 level stake.

Trends:

Here are three negative trends:

Horses who have yet to race in a Group 1 or Group 2 race are – 0 winners from 38 bets, 6 placed.

Those horses with 0 to 2 career runs are – 0 winners from 31 bets, 6 placed.

Horses beaten 3 ¼ lengths or more on their last start are – 0 winners from 27 runners, 6 placed.

Runners that run in a Group 1, had 3 or more career starts and either won or finished within 3 lengths of the winner on their last start have produced the following results – 11 winners from 20 bets 55% +82.77 14 placed 70%.

Contenders:

Impressive Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes winner Sakheer was supplemented by connections at Monday’s confirmation stage. Yet to race over 7f but should improve again for the new distance and trainer Roger Varian saddled Belardo to win the race in 2014.  He’s the bookies ante post favourite (2/1) and a worthy one.

Next in the betting is the unbeaten Nostrum (3/1) who won the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes over C&D at the last meeting. The son of Kingman is open to plenty of improvement, but he does fail two of the above trends. Of course, those samples are small, and he could easily defy them. He’s been well backed over the last few days and a win here and he’ll go into the winter the 2,000 Guineas favourite.

Naval Power made it 4-4 when winning a Haydock listed race last month. It was a workmanlike win that day and he was a strong at the finish over a mile that day. Has different profile to the two other Charlie Appleby winners but that shouldn’t stop him if he’s not inconvenienced by the drop back to 7f. Suited to quick ground so connections will be hoping the rain stays away.

Chaldean completed the hat trick when beating two rivals in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last time. He’s improving with racing and showed a nice turn of foot at Doncaster on rain softened ground. In the same ownership as Nostrum as a proved weak in the betting in the last few days which could mean he’s not going to run.

Aidan seeks a magnificent seven

Aidan O’Brien left three colts in the race on Monday looking at the betting it like it will be Aesop's Fables and/or Auguste Rodin.  The latter won a Group 2 over a mile at Leopardstown last month. He’s another open to improvement and showed he’s effective on rain softened ground last time. Aesop's Fables fulfils all the above trends. A winner of a Group 2 at the Curragh two starts back. He likely wasn’t suited by soft ground when a 3 length 4th of 6 in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month. You would like to think he’s better than he was able to show in the National Stakes. Although he would probably need a sound surface to be able to show his best.

Of the rest Marbaan didn’t like the soft ground when last of six in the National Stakes.  He needs a sound surface and is better judged on his Group 2 Vintage Stakes Goodwood win two starts back.

Isaac Shelby made it 2-2 when winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes back on the July Course. He’s a colt with plenty of improvement to come. After that win trainer Brian Meehan told the Racing Post:

“You're always tempted to make predictions, but he really is the business I think. He looks really special and could even be a Guineas horse”.  

I suspect this has been connections plan, so his 91-day absence shouldn’t be a problem. As with Nostrum more of a concern would be relevant inexperience.

Dewhurst Verdict:

Whoever wins this race will go into winter quarters the 2,000 Guineas favourite. If all the leading contenders are declared it looks a cracking renewal. Sakheer is the one to beat and he could have to much speed for his rivals although a softer surface may well blunt it. Aidan O’Brien’s runners always need respecting. Both Nostrum and Isaac Shelby lack the experience of some of their rivals but are arguably open to the most progress. Chaldean’s weakness in the betting suggests he might not run otherwise the 8/1 available with Bet365 looks far too big to me.

Thursday Racing

I have three fancies around Britain and Ireland on Thursday afternoon. The best of them could be Tamarama in the fillies 1m 2f handicap at Chelmsford (7:00).  The 3-year-old returned from a 7 week break with a promising 3 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Al Husn at Newmarket last month. The winner went in again on Saturday, so she was up against an improving filly that day. Up 2 furlongs in distance today but likely stays and her yard is in good form. Not the most exciting of prices at around 3/1.

Chelmsford

7:00 – Tamarama – 3/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John