Today we have trends analysis from Dr Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club, to get all his weekend selections join the Betting School Insiders Club for immediate access.
Nick has made 162 points profit since he started posting his selections at the Betting School Insiders Club at the end of December 2014.
Here's Nick…
It is Oaks day at Epsom I am going to look at the key trends for the opening race (the Princess Elizabeth Stakes) and then have a crack at the ultra-competitive Epsom Dash on Saturday.
We start with the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and there has only been one winner of this race at double figure odds since 1997. Since then the highest winning SP has been 7/1.
There have been no fewer than 9 winning favourites in the last 18 renewals and all bar one winner since came from the top four in the betting.
No 3yo has won since Kootenay in 2002 and 11 of the last 12 winners were aged either 4yo or 5yo.
A rating of 100+ looks essential and 46 horses have lined up here with an official rating smaller than 100 and not one of them has won.
All of the last 10 winners were rated 103+ and that looks as good a statistic as any. All that leads us to 108 rated Odeliz and 110 rated Lightning Thunder and it is the first named runner who I have backed.
Epsom 2.00pm
Odeliz @ 7/2 Sporting Odds
The Epsom dash is typically competitive as you would expect for a big field handicap and we have had a fair few meaty priced winners in recent times, most notably Stone Of Folca @50/1 in 2012 and Bertoliver @33/1 in 2010.
Last time out winners are 0-31 which suggests horses carrying penalties or those who have had a hike in the weights tend to struggle.
However, a good recent run is a positive in so much that 13 of the last 18 winners finished either 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th on their previous start.
Not many 3yo runners line up and that age group is 0-28. 10 of the last 11 winners were in the 4yo to 6yo bracket and that appears to be the age group to concentrate on, even though that age group accounts for the majority of the runners.
There have been 4 winning favourites since 1997 and in total 10 of the last 18 winners came from the front three in the betting. However, with winners at 33/1 and 50/1 in recent times there is no harm in taking one from the top of the market and one or two outsiders for good measure.
17 of the last 18 winners had won over the distance and 12 of the last 18 winners had actually won over further as well.
Those horses with 3 runs under their belt in the current season are 7-61 (11% strike rate) and those with 4 runs are 4-40 (10%). Those strike rates are much higher than the strike rates for horses with 2 runs (3%) and 1 run (2%) and I think that is a good statistic.
Between 1997 and 2001, all of the winners carried 9st 1lb or more. Since then, 9 of the last 13 winners have carried 9st 0lb or less.
Of those 9 winners, 8 carried between 8st 6lbs and 9st 0lbs.
The two that ticked all the boxes did not make the final cut so in step those next on the list and the first is Clive Cox’s Perfect Muse who is the right age, rating and weight, although he falls down on the ideal number of seasonal runs.
Barnet Fair is one of two runners for Dandy Nicholls, a trainer who has won this race plenty of times.
He goes well in big field handicaps and won at Glorious Goodwood last season. He is drawn in stall 19 which is a bonus.
I had previously put up Desert Law for this race but he has been given the worst draw of all in stall 1. However, he ran a solid race in 3rd behind Out Do at the Dante meeting and he had Monsieur Joe (winner next time out) behind in 4th.
Stall 1 makes things very difficult, but not impossible.
Epsom Dash (Saturday)
Perfect Muse 14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Barnet Fair @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Desert Law @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
All the best
Nick Hardman
http://bettinginsiders.com