Future Form Analysis

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking at how winners from the 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot fared on their next start.

Royal Ascot: Future Form

There are six races for two-year-olds at Royal Ascot. I decided to dig into horseracebase to see how the winners of these six races performed on their next start.

Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

This year’s Coventry Stakes saw a shock winner in Rashabar, who was returned at 80/1. Looking at the future form, is Rashabar worth backing on his next start?

Future Form Analysis:

• Of the 26 qualifiers, only 4 winners of the Coventry Stakes won their next start. However, all four next-time-out winners were sent off as favourites. Despite this, backing them all to SP would have resulted in a loss of £11.85 to a £1 level stake. Furthermore, no profitable angles were found for horses that finished in the first 3 or first 5.

Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies Group 2) – 5f

This year’s Queen Mary Stakes was won by the Karl Burke-trained filly Leovanni. Is Leovanni worth backing on her next start.

Future Form Analysis:

• Nine winners of the Queen Mary Stakes have gone on to win next time out. Consequently, backing all 24 qualifiers to win at SP next time out would have returned a profit of £18.09 to a £1 level stake. Moreover, most of that profit was obtained from horses running in a Group 2 race next time.

Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – 5f

This year’s Windsor Castle was won by the Kevin Ryan-trained Ain’t Nobody, who landed a bit of a touch in the process.

Future Form Analysis:

• Like the Queen Mary, a good number of winners of the Windsor Castle Stakes went in again next time out. Specifically, backing all 26 qualifiers to win at SP next time out would have returned a profit of £15.60 to a £1 level stake.

Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

This year’s Norfolk Stakes was won by the Karl Burke-trained colt Shareholder.

Future Form Analysis:

• Backing all 24 qualifiers to win at SP next time out would have resulted in a £2 loss to a £1 level stake. Nevertheless, this loss could be turned into a small profit if the winner ran between 16 to 30 days after winning the Norfolk Stakes or was first or second favourite on their next run.

Albany Stakes (Fillies Group 3) – 6f

This year’s Albany Stakes was won by Fairy Godmother, who came from last to first to get up close to home.

Future Form Analysis:

• Backing all 22 qualifiers to win at SP next time out would have resulted in 7 winners but returned a £4.75 loss to a £1 level stake. However, six of those 7 winners came when racing 16 to 30 days after the Albany Stakes, resulting in a £6.63 profit to a £1 level stake.

Chesham Stakes (Listed) – 7f

This year’s Chesham Stakes was won by the filly Bedtime Story in impressive style.

Future Form Analysis:

• Plenty of Chesham Stakes winners went in next time out but backing them all would have resulted in a £3.77 loss to a £1 level stake. Nevertheless, the profitable angle for Chesham Stakes winners is to back those who start as favourites on their next start. Consequently, 10 winners from 14 runners, returned a £6.13 profit to a £1 level stake.

Conclusion

While some races like the Queen Mary and Windsor Castle have shown profitable follow-up opportunities, others like the Coventry Stakes and Chesham Stakes have been less predictable. The key is to look for specific patterns, such as the time gap between races or the starting price position, to find profitable angles.

Thursday Racing

It’s the start of Newcastle’s three-day Northumberland Plate meeting. There’s also a couple of interesting handicaps at Newmarket’s July course (4:30) and Hamilton this evening (7:15).

Newcastle

The feature race at Newcastle is the JenningsBet In Kippax Seaton Delaval Handicap (4:10). Twelve have been declared for this Class 2 mile handicap which has £18,039 on offer to the winner.

There have been seven running’s of the race since Newcastle switched from the grass to the tapeta surface. All seven winners shared the following two traits.

If you think the trends will hold again this year, then there's only one qualifier Elnajmm in this year’s race. Elnajmm will bid to give trainer William Haggas back-to-back wins in the Seaton Delaval Handicap. He’s been gelded since his latest start 317 days ago and makes his handicap debut off what looks a workable mark of 86.

Just two other horses in the line-up were returned 7/1 & less on their last start – Brunch & Navagio.  

Brunch was an encouraging fourth on his belated seasonal reappearance at Nottingham 25 days ago and is 9lb lower than when a 1 ¼ length 6^th in last years race. If ignoring the trends he’s got solid claims.

Navagio was a promising 3^rd of 20 in the Lincoln Handicap on his stable debut for James Horton but has been below that form on two subsequent starts. Has place form on the polytrack at Dundalk but is unproven on the tapeta. If he takes to the surface, he’s not weighted out of it.

Helm Rock was sent of 28/1 on his seasonal return. A C&D winner last August. He might need another run or two to return to winning ways. However, he’s got a 64% win & place strike rate on the all-weather so could get into the places.

Thursday Selection:

I have stepped back from betting for the past few days to enjoy the summer weather. However, I might be back in the saddle on Thursday. Victor Value subscribers need to watch out for a morning update.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John