Yeah I know this is a subject I turn back to now and then.
The reason for why is that I am running a number of systems that follow favourites.
It’s true they are not the easiest systems to make money from but they do have some advantages…
Firstly you don’t have to wait around to long for a winner.
Although all favourites win around 36% of the time with a bit of filtering it is not hard to get this figure a little higher.
You get plenty of choices throughout the day allowing you to be choosy.
I hear all the time that people say the Betfair market is very accurate at getting the prices correct.
My own experience says that this accuracy fluctuates and there are weeks and months when there is more profit to be had than usual.
If you would have tracked favourites on AW over the last year or so you would see that favourites have been winning a little more often than usual and so at Betfair BSP (-5%) favourites have made profit.
This shows that the Betfair market is not always as accurate as we are led to believe.
It’s these fluctuations plus a little filtering that can end up allowing us to make some profit.
Another idea I have been playing with over the last few months is combining systems together.
Here are the results of combining 3 favourite systems (that I have been running separately) together.
http://sportingbotslabs.com/GHB_30_points_Fav.asp
As you can see from the number of selections per month there is filtering being used to identify the selections.
Also by combining the systems we only use a selection once even if it is identified as a possible selection by more than one system.
The strike rate shows and average of 36% but this year that is closer to 35%.
And also this year the average winning price has been around 2.36 and the average monthly profit 13.34.
But as you can see there have been some big swings in profit.
The longest losing run of 17 is a little higher than I like especially with a favourite systems.
But I think with the amount of profit it is an acceptable trade off and still within the expected 19 you could get with this strike rate.
This system is part of the “30 points a month profit” section of the grey horse bot web site.
Check out more here.
Thanks
Malcolm
Today’s Selection
Kempton 20:10 Esteemable – 1/2pt EW – 25/1 Gen