Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m continuing my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action. Plus, there a few final Cheltenham Festival stats.

It’s Derby Day

No, I'm referring to the Kiplingcotes Derby, England's oldest horse race, held over a four-mile countryside course through farm lanes, tracks, and public roads near Market Weighton in the Yorkshire Wolds.

Due to its unique nature, the race organisers don’t know how many runners will participate until just before the race is run. There’s the princely sum of £100 on offer to the winner but the second receives the remainder of the total of the entry fees.

Today marks my inaugural attendance at the race, and I'm eager to experience it firsthand. With the going expected to be heavy in some areas, coupled with the presence of a local bookmaker, it promises to be a fun day.

Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis: A Tough Year for Longshots

This year’s Cheltenham Festival wasn’t a good one for those punters fishing for big-priced winners. Horses returned 14/1 & bigger were just 2 winners from 223 runners (expected winners = 7.48, A/E = 0.27). The two winners being Stellar Story (33/1) and Monmiral (25/1).

Let’s compare this year’s figures with those from 2014-2023.

Cheltenham Festival Lay Options Review:

I posted three Cheltenham Festival lay options on the run-up to the meeting. One was for trainers, another jockey’s and the final one covering last time out tracks.

This is how they fared this year.

Trainers:

Jockey:

So, both the poor trainer & jockey’s angles made a nice profit for the layers.

Tracks:

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 2

Doncaster

A neck separated Harswell Duke & Titian when the pair were first and second in last year’sSpring Mile Handicap at Doncaster. They were both left in Saturday’s race at Monday’s final confirmation stage and look to have been aimed at the race.

Harswell Duke is 7lb lower than 12 months ago and Titian is 2lb lower. The former had nice prep for this at Newcastle 10 days ago and loves the mud. Titian doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run unlike last year, but he’s gone fresh in the past.

Sadly, the bookies haven’t priced the race up, but I would be interested in both Harswell Duke and Titian with former favoured if the ground was heavy.

Newbury

The going at Newbury was good to soft, soft in places earlier in the week. However, the forecast was suggesting a mostly dry few days until the weekend. If the drying trend does continue, we could be looking at good ground on Saturday.

ITV Racing are covering three races live from Newbury on Saturday. All three races are handicaps, and they attracted a decent set of entries at Monday’s final confirmation stage.

If the ground is close to good, then I would be very interested in Sea Invasion in the Bet In-Play On Racing With BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (2:10). I fancied the 6-year-old for a race at Kempton last month, but he was a non-runner on account of soft ground. He posted a career last time when a 5 ½ length 4th of 10 at Kempton (2m). He shaped like a step up in trip would suit the last day and mark of 114 on handicap hurdle debut looks workable.

Heltenham is sure to be popular in the Run For Your Money At BetVictor Handicap Chase (2:40) after his recent C&D success. There could be a lot more to come from Heltenham won this race last year and looks poised for back-to-back successes. He had Kandoo Kid two lengths back in second last time and the runner-up is 4lb better off. On better ground Kandoo Kid would have solid claims of reversing form with the winner. Trainer Paul Nicholls also saddled the winner of this race in 2022.

Party Vibes Leads the Field

With £28,617 on offer to win the British EBF BetVictor “National Hunt” Mares' Novices' Hurdle (3:15). A limited handicap run over 2m 4 ½ f and the minimum weight to be carried is 10-6. Party Vibes whose bidding for a hat trick after soft ground wins at Wincanton and Market Rasen has been installed the 9/2 favourite. The step up to an extended 2m 4f should suit her on pedigree and she’s open to further improvement. The only concern would be the prospect of quicker ground.

Dan Skelton saddled Roksana to win this race in 2018 and he could run Lindy Reilly. Lindy Reilly has shaped with ability on her three starts in novice company and looks to have been aimed at handicaps.

Larchmont Lass got of the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a Wincanton novice last time. The step up to 2m 5f suited her that day and she’s another mare who is capable of better.

It’s fair to say this weekend’s jumps action isn’t of the highest quality but given it’s just a week since the festival it’s not a surprise. Hopefully the Newbury field sizes hold up and we get some competitive racing.

Thursday Preview

The best race on Thursday is arguably Ludlow’s Bromfield Sand And Gravel Handicap Chase (4:10). Not that’s saying much as today’s action is very moderate both sides of the Irish Sea.

Ludlow

4:10 – Not Available has been running poorly this season but he returned to form back on better ground at this time last year winning twice at Chepstow. The latest of those wins came in April and he’s 11lb lower now. A former C&D winner if the ground has dried out, he would be interesting at a price. Greenrock Abbey is far more consistent and will like the ground but at 7/4 I can let him win.

There’s a couple of a bit of interest at Chepstow although the first of them would want ground no worse than good to soft.

Chepstow

3:15 – Silver in Disguise hasn’t built on the promise of his Carlisle seasonal reappearance on three subsequent starts. He’s just 2lb above last season’s winning mark and it’s worth remembering his win this race in 2022 but was subsequently disqualified (banned substance).  I can’t get the Tim Vaughan yard right, but Silver Disguise has a good chance here if the ground has dried out.

4:25 – Puddlesinthepark won over hurdles at Ffos Las 12 months ago but remains a maiden after five starts over fences.  That success came on good ground and returning to that surface might be required to enable the 6-year-old to get his head in front over fences. The cheekpieces go on for the first time which makes him of interest. If the ground has dried out, he would become even more interesting. Leading Swoop made a promising start to chasing when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 at Fontwell last time.  The form of that Fontwell race is working out well which gives him a good chance here.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John