Evening all,

The promised Breeders Cup Special turned out to be longer than expected so I have split the Thursday’s column into two parts. This one sees me continue to look ahead to the weekend’s big races. And I continue my series on trainers with runners in the first time headgear, today’s it’s the turn of the visor. There’s also my look ahead to the best of today; s action.

The promised Breeders Cup Special will be with you on Thursday morning. I have previewed all 14 races live on ITV over the two days and there’s my idea of the winner of each of the races.

If you want my Breeders Cup betting advice and there are handful of overpriced horses. You can get them by joining the Victor Value Service.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 2

Yesterday I previewed Wincanton’s Badger Beer Handicap Chase. Today it came down to a choice between the Grand Sefton at Aintree and the November Handicap at Doncaster. In the end I plumped for the last big handicap of the flat season.

November Handicap – Doncaster

Looking at the last 13 renewal of the race. All thirteen winners were returned 20/1 & under and had finished first or second in at least one of their last three starts.

Looking at the draw:

Interestingly those horses in the first quarter of the draw have really struggled not just in terms of winners but also in horses finishing in the places.  I have to say I wasn’t expecting to see such poor stats for horse drawn low.  Indeed, digging into horseracebase further we find horses in stalls 1-8 are 0 winners from 98 runners 11 placed since 2008.Will that trend or the other two be busted on Saturday?

Contenders:

John Gosden saddled Royal Line to win the 2018 renewal and has the ante post favourite in Israr. The 3-year-old was a good winner over C&D on heavy ground 14-days ago. He’s had a light campaign, just five starts, and was only raised 7lb for his latest win. It’s not hard to think that he could turn out to be a Group horse running in a handicap.

Next in the betting is Nathanael Greene, trained by William Haggas. The 3-year-old seemed to relish easy ground when winning at Haydock two starts back. Back from a 3 month lay off he ran well again when 4 length 4th of 14 to Post Impressionist at York last month. He stays 1m 6f well so his guaranteed stamina could come in handy.

Other’s on the shortlist:

Prydwen has developed into a useful handicapper and posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Haydock last time. He’s up 6lb for that Haydock success but he’s only had two starts at around 1m 4f so is unexposed over the distance.

First Officer made a winning stable debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam at Nottingham (1m 2f). He relished the mud that day and he almost defied an 8lb rise in the weights when a nose 2^nd of 8 here (1m 2f) 15-days ago. He needs two to drop out to get a run which seems likely and the return to 1m 4f shouldn’t be an issue for an improving 3-year-old.

Mr Alan is another 3-year-old who has developed into a useful handicapper. His recent improvement has come dropped back to 1m 2f, but he does stay 1m 4f as he showed at Chester in May.  He’s been raised 4lb for winning at Nottingham on soft ground last month but should remain competitive. Andrea Atzeni who rode him last time continues in the saddle.

On To Victory won this in 2020 but that remains his last success on the flat. His success in the 2020 renewal came on soft ground so will get his ideal conditions. Alan King has booked David Probert for the ride and the 8-year-old can race off 7lb lower than when successful two years ago.

Trainers with runners in first time headgear: Visor

At one time there was just one type of headgear: the blinkers. Some of you may remember the big square blinkers they used to fit; they were designed to make the horse look straight ahead only. Now we have more types of headgear including the visor.

Visors are similar in look and serve a similar purpose to blinkers there are subtle differences to them. While blinkers completely restrict vision from the side, visors have a small slit in them which means when other horses are upside the wearer will know they are there. Horses are after all herded animals so the horse can see horses challenging by their side but are still focused on the task ahead. You could say they are a just a less severe form of blinker.

As with the blinkers, I'd say most visor wearers get used to them quickly and they no longer serve the initial purpose to aid concentration.

Looking at the stats. Since 2018 horses running in the first time visor have close to 9% win strike rate.

As with the use of the first time hood and blinkers. There are trainers who use the headgear to good effect and there are trainers who don’t.

The Trainers:

Digging into horseracebase once more I found a few trainers who have profitable records and seem to know what they are doing when fitting the visor for the first time. 

Like last week I have concentrated on trainers who have had a minimum of 20 qualifying runners.

Below is the breakdown by trainer:

If you backed all those trainers qualifiers, you would have had 66 winners from 331 runners 20%. And you would have made a £308.49 profit to a £1 level stake and +430.21 to BFSP and a profit has been made for the last five years.

Before I finish. Here are a group of trainers who don’t have stellar records with their runners in the first time visor.

Next Thursday I will conclude this series on the use of first time headgear by looking at the the cheekpieces.

Thursday Racing

Newbury races over jumps for the first time this season. The good ground at the Berkshire track means the field sizes aren’t great.  Ludlow, Sedgefield, and Thurles also race over jumps this afternoon. There’s also an all-weather evening card at Chelmsford.

Newbury

It’s good, good to firm in places on the chase course. Not surprisingly the field sizes reflect the prevailing going conditions. Still its not a bad card.

Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (1:55)

I probably shouldn’t but I keep getting drawn to these races. Huelgoat, trained by Paul Nicholls, has made a good start to his chase career making 3-3 when successful at Fontwell 15-days ago. He’s a good jumper of a fence and goes well on quick ground. He’s up 6lb for his latest success and faces probably his toughest assignment so far over fences. However, he’s almost certainly capable of more progress and will be tough to beat.

The Joe Tizzard trained Whydah Gally should do better over fences than hurdles. However, the bigger threat to the favourite could be Git Maker, that’s if the rain arrives. The 6-year-old won an Irish point prior to joining Jamie Snowden and then won three of his four starts of hurdles last season. He's ground versatile but a bit more ease would likely suit him as he does have a bit of knee action.

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (3:05)

You can see why Didtheyleaveuoutto is favourite here. The 9-year-old was doing his best work at the finish when a 3 ¼ lengths 4th of 10 to Knappers Hill in Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow (2m 3 ½ f) last time. He was a ¾ length runner-up in this 12 months ago and is 3lb lower this time around. Needs 3m these days and quick ground so has plenty in his favour today. However, he's is hardly a prolific winning machine.

Arguably Flemcara’s best performance last season came over C&D when a neck 2^nd of 14. That performance came of a 242-day layoff, and he returns from a 196 day break here. He’s 4lb lower that he was at the start of last season and although the 10-year-old isn’t getting any younger he’s still capable of running well if ready to roll. Unlike the favourite who doesn’t want good to soft ground and might not run was the ground to ease. Flemcara wouldn’t be bothered if the rain was to arrive.

Thursday Selection:

Newbury

3:05 – Flemcara – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John