Hi all,

There were a few gremlins in the works yesterday and Daily Punt readers got more race previews than intended. Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action at Newmarket.

It’s Qipco 1,000 Guineas Day at Newmarket with the first fillies classic the feature of an eight race card.

The ITV racing cameras are taking four races live from Newmarket this afternoon. There’s also a race apiece from Hamilton and Salisbury.

By a quirk of racing planning the two Hamilton & Salisbury races are Class 3 (0 -95) handicaps over 1m 5f & 1m 6f respectively. In a better run sport, you would of course have one Class 3 handicap over the distance with double the prize money. Or maybe I’m being too rational.

Oh, and there’s also a 1m 6f handicap (Class 2) at Newmarket (1:50). Where all but three of the 19 runners were qualified to run in the two Class 3 handicaps.

Anyway, less of my race planning moan and back to the action on the track.

Newmarket

Who knows how much more rain will fall at Newmarket? It’s a bit of a punter’s nightmare. There was plenty of the wet stuff about on Saturday which turned the ground soft. We also have the possibility of heavy showers in the area on Sunday, but the track could miss them altogether.  If it’s a dry day then the track will dry out as it does at this time of year but you will still likely want to be with horses who want ease in the ground.

My advice would be to wait until you know what the going is like is like just before the start of racing and then make your final selections which isn’t a luxury tipsters can enjoy.

I previewed the 1,000 Guineas in Thursday’s column but it’s worth refreshing my thoughts on the race.

Qipco 1,000 Guineas (3:40)

Twenty were left in the first fillies classic of the new season.

Last season’s two best juvenile fillies were Tahiyra & Meditate and those two dominate the ante post market. Tahiyra was impressive when beating Meditate in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes last season. Ok, the latter has experience of the track having finished runner-up in the Cheveley Park Stakes. However, that apart and I don’t really see why Meditate should reverse placings on Sunday.

The trends boys will tell you that Tahiyra can’t win because the last ten winners of the race all had at least three starts as a juvenile.  

For those looking for one at bigger odds you could do worse than look at Stenton Glider and Caernarfon. The first named looks better value (28/1) than Remarquee (7/1) who beat her a neck in the Fred Darling last time. Caernarfon is a battled hardened filly and won a Listed race over C&D last Autumn.  At around 50/1 and with four places available she looks worth a modest each way play. That said if there is a ‘superstar’ filly in the line up its Tahiyra and anything above 2/1 looks excellent value to this pundit. I get the sweats when I tip up a horse under 5/1 but Tahiyra should be well ahead of her rivals.

2:25 – Howden Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f

It’s an open looking race with seven of the ten fillies having won last time out and most of those are open to further progress.

The Gosden yard won this race five times between 2014 & 2020 and they saddle bookies early bird favourite Running Lion & Tarjamah.  Both won last time out, are likely capable of better over 1m 2f and hold Oaks entries.

Queen Of Fairies looked a nice prospect when winning on her racecourse debut at Southwell in December. Yard won this 12 months ago and could be set for back to back successes in the race.

Floating Spirit has won both career starts on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield. Another potential improver if as effective on the turf. Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking.

Trust The Stars is another Oaks entry and the daughter of Sea The Stars who won here (1m) on racecourse debut last September. Has a good middle distance pedigree and should stay 1m 4f. Not out of this if making the expected improvement from two to three.

Good luck if you’re thinking of a having a bet in this one. It could be an informative contest but given the likely going its one I’m happy to watch.

3:00 – Howden Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 1f

French challenger Life In Motion is the ante post favourite after making a winning seasonal return in a Listed contest at Longchamp 17-days ago. If the rain arrives, she won’t be inconvenienced either. Trainer Andre Fabre saddled the winner of this in 2014 & 2016 and could be set to train another winner of the race.  

Prosperous Voyage finished a neck runner-up in last year’s 1,000 Guineas on seasonal return and won the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on the July Course. Likely needs quick ground to be seen at her best so connections will be hoping the rain stays away.

Via Sistina enjoys ease underfoot and can win a race like this when she gets her ground. If the rain has arrived to ease the ground, then she’s a player even though she probably needs 1m 2f.

Al Husn was a big improver last autumn winning handicaps here over 1m & 1m 2f. There should be more to come from the daughter of Dubawi as a 4-year-old.

With The Moonlight began last season by running out an impressive winner of the Pretty Polly on the card. She went pot hunting overseas after finishing last of 11 in the Epsom Oaks and looked good when winning twice at Meydan over the winter. Given her course form she’s respected but needs arguably will need quick ground to win.

Sunday Verdict:

I think Tahiyra wins the 1,000 Guineas but I might have a small saver on Caernarfon at 50/1 or bigger.

Life In Motion could give Andre Fabre a third win in the Dahlia Stakes. However, this one of those races today were the amount of rain that falls could be significant.  If the going was on the quick side of good, then Prosperous Voyage and With The Moonlight come into consideration. However, on soft ground you can make a strong case for Via Sistina even over a trip short of her best.  The form of the Roger Varian yard is a bit of a concern but his runner Al Husn is capable of more progress this season.

Newmarket

3:00 – Via Sistina – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

In Monday’s column I will be looking back at the first English classic of the new season.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

John