Hi all,

In today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to Saturday’s big betting race the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Plus, there's a quick delve into this afternoon’s card at Perth with some Perth Picks.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1

The curtain comes down on the Jumps Season in Britain at Sandown on Saturday. The British Jumps Trainers Championship will be decided with Willie Mullins looking odds on to take it.

Mullins looks like he’ll run El Fabiolo in a cracking looking bet365 sponsored Celebration Chase (3.00). El Fabiolo will bid to bounce back from his pulled-up effort in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. It looks like he’ll face Jonbon and Captain Guinness who were first and second in the race 12 months ago.  Jonbon who missed the Champion Chase, comes into the race after a win at Aintree when he stepped up to 2m 4f. Meanwhile Captain Guinness took advantage of El Fabiolo’s poor jumping effort to win the Champion Chase last time.

Saturday’s big betting race is the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3:35). Twenty-eight were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage so we could be set for a good-sized field.

Last year’s winner Kitty’s Light will defend his crown from a 5lb higher mark. The 8-year-old is the sponsor's 7/2 favourite after an excellent fifth placed effort in the Grand National. On good ground he’ll be tough to beat but he’s short enough that I want to take him on.

ITV Racing are covering four races from Sandown on Saturday and one race a piece from Leicester and Haydock.

Sandown: bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 4 ½ f

Looking at the weather forecast up until Saturday there’s only a few showers forecast but there could be 6mm on Saturday. If he does water which seems likely given if they miss the showers, it will be close to good to firm on the day. However, if they do water and they get rain on Saturday it could be closer to soft. It’s something to keep a close eye on.

The old Whitbread Brewers sponsored the race from 1957 to 2001. That’s why for readers of a certain vintage the race will always be fondly remembered as the Whitbread Gold Cup.

The race has been won by some great steeplechasers including Arkle (1965), Mill House (1967) and Desert Orchid (1988).

Sandown's uphill run to the line has witnessed some thrilling finishes over the years. In 2021, an unfortunate Kitty's Light was involved in one such finish, which I remember all too well as I backed him that day. You can watch the race here:

However, as exciting as the 2021 finish was it can’t match the most exciting conclusion to a National Hunt race, I have ever seen in 1984.  You can relive that race here

bet365 Gold Cup Trends:

Now that we've indulged in a bit of nostalgia, let's turn our attention to this year's renewal and examine some of the race trends. Out of 262 runners, there have been 15 winners, with 56 placing.

From my perspective, I don't consider it much of a trend's race, although the experts in trend analysis might disagree. Nonetheless, here are some of the trends that I found most interesting.

Twelve winners from 116 runners +62.5, 31 placed had 0 to 1 handicap chase wins – with the A/E=1.26.

Six winners (40%) were returned 14/1 & bigger.

Last Time Out Track: Aintree – 1 winner from 66 runners -56, 6 placed.

Odds SP Last Race: 16/1 & bigger – 1 winner from 119 runners -111.5, 22 placed.

Four winners from 89 runners -38, 18 placed carried 11-0 +.

Previous Course wins: +1 – 0 winners from 68 runners, 15 placed.

Bet365 Gold Cup Contenders:

If all the leading contenders show up on Saturday, we could be in a for a cracking renewal of the race. Besides last year’s winner Kitty’s Light who looks to have a great chance, with the going coming in his favour, despite the above Aintree trend.

Willie Mullins had four entries at Monday’s final confirmation. They include novice chaser Nick Rockett, who was 7th in the Irish Grand National and Minella Cocooner who was an excellent third in the Irish Grand National last time. If Mullins is to gain a third successive big Saturday handicap chase after the Grand National and Scottish Grand National, then I think Minella Cocooner is the one who can do it.  He proved his stamina for the trip last time and I think he’s capable of better on a sounder surface. Nick Rockett might do better on quicker ground and can’t be discounted either but I just prefer his stablemate.

It looks like Dan Skelton has laid out Le Milos out for the race. You can throw out his three runs over hurdles this season as the trainer has clearly wanted to protect his chase mark. He won last season’s Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, from 3lb lower. That latter success came on good ground.

Threeunderthrufive could give Paul Nicholls a third success in the race. The 9-year-old gained a well deserved success at Ascot 70 days ago. A consistent sort, he comes into the race fresher than most and seems likely to be in the mix.

Of the rest

Kinondo Kwetu returned from a 6-month layoff to finish a 7 ¾ length 4th of 13 to Cruz Control in Freebooter Handicap Chase at Aintree. Stamina for 3m 4f has to be taken on trust but he goes well on a sound surface and is another to come into the race fresh. If he stays has each way claims.

Amirite will finally get his good ground provided the Clerk of the Course doesn’t over do the watering on the run up to the race.  He’s had two good runs this season. The saddle slipped when he was 4^th of 13 at Cheltenham in October and was a solid 5^th of 27 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. First run for 122 days and he’s got the scope to improve for today’s longer trip. He’s one I like a lot, but he needs decent ground. It’s only uncertainty over the going that’s prevented me going in for him now.

There are no stamina concerns with Your Own Story who won over 3m 7f last season. The ground will be fine for the 8-year-old who comes he rather than going for Friday’s Highland National at Perth. Possibly lacks the class of some of his rivals but could get into the money.

Slipway is another who could find one or two more classier rivals in the line-up. However, the 9-year-old has won twice going right-handed over fences and is 4 from 9 on good to soft ground.  A thorough stayer (won the Highland National 2022 & Southern National 2022) he took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to win at Kempton (3m) last month. A 5lb rise in a deeper race makes life tougher but he can’t be discounted.

Wednesday Racing

Perth

Perth’s three-day April meeting gets underway this afternoon. The highlight is the sight of the Willie Mullins caravan rolling into town. The trainer has one hand on the British Trainers Championship and has four runners on the card this afternoon. The last time the Irish Champion Trainer had runners at Perth was at this meeting when he was going for the British Trainers Championship in 2016. His Perth record stands at 3 winners from 5 runners +5.5, 4 placed so you ignore his runners at your peril.

The highlights of the Perth card are the Listed 3m mares' chase (3.25) and the Listed 3m novice hurdle (2.55).

2:55 – Gold Castle Novice Hurdle (Listed) – 3m

Willie Mullins saddles Loughglynn who beat the subsequent Albert Bartlett winner in a Grade 2 (2m 7f) at Limerick in December.  A return to further will suit the 6-year-old and he’s got strong claims. Sounds Russian would have a good chance if reproducing his high-class chase form over hurdles. He made a belated seasonal return over hurdles in February but will need to have come on plenty for that run to win.

The value play in the race could be El Elefante. El Elefante is a dual novice hurdle winner and would have gone close in a good handicap at Newbury last time but for falling at the last. The mare gets weight from all but one of her rivals and if none the worse for her latest mishap should go close. Trainer Lucinda Russell won this race last year.

3:25 – Fair Maid Of Perth Mares' Chase (Listed) – 3m

Just the six runners but four of them seem to have good claims.

Malina Girl won a valuable handicap chase at Cheltenham in November and looked set to follow up when falling three out back at that venue the following month. Mostly disappointing on three starts since but has a big chance here on official ratings.

Instit, trained by Willie Mullins, has the ability to go close and was back to form when 2^nd of 8 under top weight at Fairyhouse last month. She stays 2m 5f and looks worth a try at three miles.

Riviere D'Etel, a three time graded winner over fences, isn’t the most consistent of mares but she’s been in decent form this winter and must be of interest back down in class and going right-handed 4 wins from 9 runs, 6 placed going this way around.

Apple Away, a Grade 1 winner over hurdles last season, hasn’t really built on her novice chase success at Leicester in December on three subsequent starts although she probably didn’t stay 3m 6f in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time. Less testing ground should suit and she’s down in class against her own sex.

Wednesday Selection:

Although I was delighted with Champagne Piaff's commanding victory at Epsom yesterday, I can't shake off my regret about Bellum Justum's triumph in the Blue Riband Trial. I had expressed optimism about his prospects in Tuesday's preview, and told Victor Value subscribers:

 “I had fancied Bellum Justum to upset Chief Little Rock in the ‘Derby’ Trial but I think he needs quick ground which he probably won’t get if the weather forecast is correct”.

However, I allowed myself to be swayed by the forecast of rain, anticipating ground conditions that never materialized. Instead, the going remained on the quick side of good. As a result, I missed out on backing a 9/1 winner, which is always frustrating. I hope some of you did back it.

Tuesday's picks are in, and while the Willie Mullins entries are certainly worth noting, I'm leaning towards a couple of Lucinda Russell trained runners. Both El Elefante and Apple Away catch my eye in their races, but I'm particularly keen on Apple Away. Hopefully, we'll see some slightly better odds than her current 3/1 odds.

Perth

3:25 – Apple Away.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John