It's Friday and we have our weekly dose of winner finding medicine from Dr Nick Hardman. For more Nick Hardman insights join the Betting School Insiders Club where he is a regular contributor – http://bettinginsiders.com
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Sound Investment (adv. 11/2) gave us another big race winner last week and today we turn our attention to a couple of trainers with an excellent recent record at Ayr as well as a trends based analysis of the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday.
The first of our trainers to note at Ayr is Nicky Richards. Since the beginning of 2014 he has sent out 13 winners from 34 runners at a strike rate of 38% and a level stakes profit of £12.25. Even more impressive is the fact he has had 5 winners from 11 runners in 2015 for a level stakes profit of £10.72. 12 of those winners have been ridden by Brian Harding and this trainer/ jockey combination have a few entries today.
Our second trainer is Tony Carroll who has only sent 6 runners to the course since the beginning of 2014 but 3 of those have won for a level stakes profit of £11.80. Between them, Nicky Richards and Tony Carroll have the following entries at Ayr today:
2.00pm Keys @10/11 (Tony Carroll)
2.30pm Un Noble @16/1 (Richards/ Harding)
3.05pm Great Link @4/1 (Tony Carroll)
4.10pm Teddy Tee @3/1 (Richards/ Harding)
4.45pm And The Man @9/2 (Richards/ Harding)
5.20pm Missionaire @7/1 (Tony Carroll)
The Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday has attracted a maximum field and it is an ideal race for trends analysis. This is one race the Pipe stable have had a lot of success with. Since 1997 the Pipe stable has trained the winner of the Imperial Cup on no fewer than seven occasions. To put that in perspective, no other trainer has won this more than once since 1997.
Seven winning favourites have obliged since 1997 (37% win rate) and 12 of the winners in that time came from the top 4 in the betting. All the winners since 1997 came from the top 9 horses in the betting, including 20/1 winners Paintball and First Avenue. We have also seen placed horses at 66/1, 33/1 and 25/1 in recent years.
Eight of the last 18 winners had won their previous start and a top 4 four finish LTO accounts for 13 of the last 18 winners. 5yo runners have the best record (8-80, 10% win rate) and any 4yo runner would be interesting. Only eleven 4yo runners have competed in this race and 2 have won (18% win rate). Both those 4yo winners were trained by David Pipe.
All of the last 11 winners carried a weight of 9-12 to 10-12, with the weight bracket 10-03 to 10-07 supplying six of those 11 winners. The OR of the winners has climbed in recent years.
From 1997 to 2006 there were 6 winners rated less than 120. From 2006 to 2014 the winners have all been rated between 124 and 135.
Horses having raced in the 16 – 60 days before taking up their engagement in the Imperial Cup account for 13 of the last 18 winners.
Finally, 15 of the last 18 winners had had between 2 to 4 seasonal runs, which is a pretty strong statistic.
No single runner ticks all the boxes so I am concentrating on those who occupy the top 9 places in the betting market.
The weight stat looks strong so I have eliminated those carrying more than 10st 12lbs and the OR band of 124 – 135 is also a strong trend.
That leaves us with West Wizard @12/1, Zip Top @12/1, Chieftan’s Choice @16/1, Thistlecrack @16/1 and Some Buckle @18/1.
Of the five I am going to give an each-way shout to Some Buckle (dropping back in trip as he ran subsequent Grade 2 winner Glingerburn to within a short head on his penultimate start), handicap debutante Thistlecrack and Chieftan’s Choice (who is worth another chance after falling in the Betfair Hurdle). I will be backing them with those bookmakers offering 5 places so we lose a couple of pips on the latter two:
Imperial Cup (Sandown, Saturday)
Some Buckle @18/1, Thistlecrack @14/1 and Chieftan’s Choice @14/1 (all e/w, ¼ odds, 5 places)
Nick Hardman