Today we have another example of the kind of method that does find winning and profitable racing selections.
It's been submitted to us by Dave Renham who writes a regular column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper.
Dave has also recently launched a new service that you can try for just £5 called www.horseracereport.co.uk.
Today's analysis of the Northumberland Plate comes from that service…
Northumberland Plate Ten Year Trends
There is an old saying of “A leopard does not change it’s spots”
In racing unfortunately that saying is not true 100% of the time. Shocks do indeed occur.
I however am a firm believer that it would be foolish to continually ignore key lessons history has to teach us.
Each major race during the racing calendar is an individual and unique event. Each race tends to favour horses with certain characteristics and profiles.
One major race this weekend is the Northumberland plate
Below is my ten year trends report on this race.
I hope it is of some assistance in helping you compile your own sensible shortlist of contenders.
Dave Renham
Course – Newcastle
Distance – 2 miles
Date 29th – June 2013
Average field size last 10 years – 19
Market Trends
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a loss of £1.50 (ROI -13.6%). |
| Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting. |
| Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting. |
| Price: Horses priced between 14/1 and 33/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
LTO stats
| Days since last run: 0 wins from 24 for horses returning to the track within 10 days. |
| Position LTO: 2 wins for horses that won LTO (from 35 runners). |
| Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 6th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 55. |
| LTO favourites: 3 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 27 runners). |
| LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 78 runners). |
| LTO Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners from only 47 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £54.50 (ROI +116.0%). |
| LTO distance: Horses that raced over 1m 7f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 95 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -56.8%); horses that raced over 2m 2f or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 50 for a profit of £25.50 (ROI +51%). |
Age
|
Age |
Wins |
Runners |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
|
3 |
0 |
1 |
0.0 |
-£1.00 |
-100.0 |
|
4 |
4 |
64 |
6.3 |
+£13.00 |
+20.3 |
|
5 |
0 |
44 |
0.0 |
-£44.00 |
-100.0 |
|
6 |
4 |
41 |
9.8 |
+£9.50 |
+23.2 |
|
7+ |
2 |
38 |
5.3 |
+£11.00 |
+28.9 |
Official ratings (OR)
|
OR band |
Wins |
Runners |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
|
90 and below |
4 |
70 |
5.7 |
+£39.00 |
+55.7 |
|
91-96 |
5 |
67 |
7.5 |
-£3.00 |
-4.5 |
|
97 and above |
1 |
51 |
2.0 |
-£47.50 |
-93.1 |
Draw
|
Draws |
Wins |
Runners |
SR% |
|
1-6 |
4 |
60 |
6.7 |
|
7-12 |
2 |
60 |
3.3 |
|
13+ |
4 |
68 |
5.9 |
Breeding
|
Breeding |
Wins |
Runners |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
|
FR |
1 |
6 |
16.7 |
-£2.50 |
-41.7 |
|
GB |
3 |
87 |
3.4 |
-£29.00 |
-33.3 |
|
GER |
1 |
1 |
100.0 |
+£14.00 |
+1400.0 |
|
IRE |
4 |
78 |
5.1 |
+£11.00 |
+14.1 |
|
USA |
1 |
14 |
7.1 |
-£3.00 |
-21.4 |
|
Other countries |
0 |
2 |
0.0 |
-£2.00 |
-100.0 |
Class change
|
Class change |
Wins |
Runners |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
|
Down in class |
1 |
29 |
3.4 |
-£14.00 |
-48.3 |
|
Same class |
7 |
100 |
7.0 |
+£20.50 |
+20.5 |
|
Up in class |
2 |
58 |
3.4 |
-£17.00 |
-29.3 |
Trainer stats
| Trainers: 2 wins from 3 runners for Donald McCain. |
General stats
| Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 35. |
| Claiming jockeys: 3 wins from 23. |
| Recent win: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £11.50 (ROI +12.5%). |
| Handicap runs: Horses who have had 5 or less handicap runs have provided 0 winners from 43 runners. |
| Career wins: Horses with 2 or fewer career wins have provided just 1 winner from 55 runners for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -72.7%). |
Conclusion – A few interesting angles for this race. Firstly higher rated runners have struggled with those rated 94 and above managing just 1 win from 79; horses rated 85 to 93 have provided 9 winners from 96. Horses stepping up in trip have struggled whereas horses dropping 2 furlongs or more in trip have performed well above the average. The top three in the betting have performed well below the norm despite a winning favourite last year, while the 14/1 to 33/1 price bracket has actually yielded a 10 year profit if backing all runners from that band. LTO market factors have also favoured slightly higher prices with the LTO price bracket of 10/1 to 16/1 doing especially well. Age wise there is no clear pattern.
Dave Renham
Dave Renham writes a regular horse racing research column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper. He also runs www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk which offers both free and a low cost paid for options to people interested in researched racing advice.
Today's Selection
2:30:00 Doncaster 5 Inyordreams – each way bet – 9/1 Will Hill, Bet Victor
Very informative to a betting dunderhead. I will have great fun running the options and looking to see if this is successful tomorrow (for the future)