Hi all,

Cheltenham’s November Meeting is one my favourite jump meetings.  When I stated getting interested in the sport. The meeting and with it the Mackeson Gold Cup was the traditional start of the winter jumps campaign. Now at three days the meeting is the biggest Cheltenham hosts outside of the festival.

It’s a case of getting those notebooks handy as there’s going to be plenty of clues on offer as the road to the Cheltenham Festival begins. The meeting kicks off a run of top-class jumps fixtures that take place every weekend from now until the end of the year.

Inside today’s main piece. It’s a case of starting my look ahead to the big race action at Cheltenham. Plus, there’s a look at some trainers who have a good record at Cheltenham’s November Meeting and a Wednesday selection from Kempton.

Cheltenham’s November Meeting: Trainer Stats

Before I look at the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Let’s look the trainers with decent record at the November meeting.  As ever using the invaluable Horseracebase for the research.

All the trainers below have had at least two winners at the meeting since 2017.

You can improve the Tizzard record by concentrating on those runners from the yard that are 15/2 & under and finished 1^st or 2^nd in one of their last three starts. Such qualifiers are 8 winners from 18 runners 44% +11.9 9 placed. It will be interesting to see if Joe Tizzard targets the meeting as dad Colin did.

Alan King is another trainer who seems to target the meeting.  All his four winners have come in Class 1 races – 4 winners from 15 runners 27% +32.25 5 placed.

Other trainers worth noting are: Gary Moore – 2 winners from 3 runners 3 placed (Handicap Chases) and Kerry Lee – 2 winners from 4 runners +17 (Handicap Chases).

One trainer who just misses out from that list is Sam Thomas who is 1 winner from 3 runners 2 placed. Thomas has had big handicap chase winner on the last two Saturdays and has one of the leading fancies in this year’s Paddy Gold Cup in Stolen Silver. The trainer also has four other entries at the meeting, and I will be keeping a close eye on all of them.

Looking ahead to the weekend – Part 1

The big races of the weekend are the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (2:20) on Saturday which has £160,000 in guaranteed prize money. The highlight of the Sunday card is the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (2.55) which has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money.

The ITV cameras will also be in attendance with the broadcaster covering four races on each day.

Over the next two day’s I’m going to preview both big handicap starting with the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

As ever I begin this preview with a quick delve into the trends.

All the last fourteen winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup shared the following traits:

Age: 5yo to 9yo.

Odds SP: 25/1 & under.

Highest Class Run: Grade 1, Grade 2, Grade 3 or Listed.

Runs at the Track: 2+.

Digging a bit deeper just two of the winners were aged five or six – 2 winners from 59 runners -40 15 placed.

Those runners running at Cheltenham for the first time or had one previous run are – 0 winners from 54 runners 10 placed.

Those returned 28/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 55 runners 5 placed.

Trainer records:

Of the three trainers with more than one winner in the race only Paul Nicholls – 2 winners from 33 runners 9 placed – had entries left in at Monday’s final confirmation stage.

Who’ll win the Paddy Power?

Twenty one we’re left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage, and I have to say it doesn’t look the strongest of renewals.

Irish Challenger French Dynamite head the ante post betting. You must go back to 2009 and the last Irish trained winner since then there have been 17 Irish trained runners with four placing. Mind you none were as well fancied in the betting. French Dynamite was a smart novice chaser last season, winning a Grade 3 at Thurles, and he made a winning return to action back over hurdles at the same venue last month.  That should have set up for a return to the larger obstacles and he’s got clear claims. However, this will be his first run at Cheltenham.

Next in the betting is Stolen Silver he ticks all the trends boxes and won here in April. He’s won fresh so the 213 day lay off shouldn’t be a problem. Ga Law caught the eye when a 1¼ length 3rd of 8 in Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time. That was off a 20 month absence and if he hadn’t made a mistake 5 out, he may well have won. There is a danger he could bounce on Saturday, and he wouldn’t want the ground to be too soft.

Other contenders:

Il Ridoto looks the pick of the Nicholls pair ahead of his stablemate Simply The Betts although the latter is twice a course winner. The David Pipe trained Umbrigado won over hurdles at Newton Abbot last month and is back down to the same mark as when winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in March 2021. He’s just had the one run at Cheltenham but remains unexposed over the larger obstacles.

I mentioned Kerry Lee earlier and she has two entries in Demachine & Storm Control. The former was back to winning ways at Uttoxeter in May and is just 4lb higher. Three from 8 over fences there could still be a more to come from the 8-year-old who would be having his first run at Cheltenham. Storm Control is dual course winner albeit over much further.

Gary Moore has two entries in dual course winner Editeur Du Gite & Nassalam. Moore saddled the winner in 2008 so his pair need respecting.

Shakem Up'Arry’s best form has come on soft ground. However, he wasn’t disgraced when a 17 ½ length 3^rd of 16 at Aintree (2m) in April. Galahad Quest was a 5 ½ length 5^th of 19 in last year’s race, off 4lb higher. The 6-year-old made a respectable return to action when 2^nd of 4 at Chepstow last month. I’m just not sure how well handicapped he is.

Top-weight Mister Fisher has a touch of class, won a Grade 2 at Kempton in January but he pulled up in this race in 2020 and I’m not sure the ‘hurly burly’ of a big handicap suits the 8-year-old. 

Paddy Power Gold Cup Verdict:

I think that the 2+ course runs trend is a significant one which puts me in a bit of a quandary. Several on my shortlist: Ga Law, Umbrigado and Demachine fail the trend as does ante post favourite French Dynamite. I have feeling Il Ridoto would prefer a flatter track. Mister Fisher is one I would be happy to take on in a big field. Galahad Quest is struggling to win but could get into the money. That leaves the solid Stolen Silver. Granted he’s 7lb higher than when winning here in April which life tougher but he remains with a bit of potential over fences.

Wednesday Racing

It’s not often that Bangor-on-Dee is the standout meeting, but it is on Wednesday. The feature race of an excellent looking seven race card a Listed Mares only Novice Chase (1:25).  Occasionally during the winter there’s a midweek Class 2 handicap chase with a decent sized that gets me excited. And there’s one such race at Bangor at this afternoon and its the Paul Ferguson Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (For The Sir Charles Lowther Plate) (2:00).

The most valuable race of the day though is on the all-weather at Kempton this evening. The Unibet London Sprint Series (Final) Handicap (8:00) is the highlight of a bumper nine race card. Given there’s £80,000 in guaranteed prize money its not surprising that the race has attracted a maximum field size of 12.

Kempton

8:00 – Aramis Grey had three of today’s rivals Apollo One (2^nd), Tiger Crusade (4^th) and Strike Red (5^th)just behind when getting up close home over C&D 7-days ago. The mare has a 5lb penalty to carry but a strongly run race could see her defy it.

Apollo One was just a neck behind in second. The 4-year-old is on a winnable mark, but his losing run is now at 14. Tiger Crusade was a 1 ½ lengths back in 4^th but didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out and he looks to be coming back to his best. Strike Red was a further ¼ length back on his hat trick bid. He had been dropped to the rear from his wide draw and wasn’t well positioned behind runners as a result. He finished his race of well once in the clear and must be respected.

Aphelios has been running consistently well in turf sprint handicaps since winning at Carlisle in August. He posted a career best when winning over C&D three weeks ago. Has got a handy draw in stall 3 and seems to be going the right way.

First Folio beat Aphelios on turf at Yarmouth in September. And was solid enough 3rd of 7 over C&D 35-days ago when he would have preferred a stronger pace. That was the 4-year-old’s first run on the all-weather. Better expected back in handicap company. Although he does have an awkward draw in stall 10.

Verdict: A lot depends on how quick they go up front. Aramis Grey, Tiger Crusade and Strike Red would like a strong gallop. If the pace isn’t strong Apollo One and Aphelios would be better positioned to take advantage.

Wednesday Selection:

Kempton

8:00 – Apollo One

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John