I've just been reading an interview with pro punter Laurence Lambourn so I thought I'd share the highlights with you.
Laurence works out his own idea of what the price of the contenders in a race should be.
He then looks to bet at 30% over his idea of the true odds.
Working like this allows a profit margin but also allows a percentage to cover any errors or unknowns in the calculation of the value odds in the first place.
For readers who don't know where to start with creating an odds line I'll gather up some resources for another day.
Back to Laurence.
When asked about the mistakes he made in the early days of his betting career, he says…
“…being swayed by press hype on horses, also following prices down.”
This is a key factor for betting success. I know people who consider themselves professional who are still swayed by a heavily backed horse or a comment from an expert on the racing channels.
The thing is the crowd or the expert may be onto something but once everybody is onto something then the value is gone. So if you only bet on horses that have been gambled on you will lose over the long term!
If you can get on before the gamble begins then that's a different matter.
Laurence says…
“Remember it's all about the prices!”
All in all I didn't glean a whole lot of info from this interview but the points I have highlighted above are the key to any betting career. And are recurring themes when talking to successful punters.
So the key reminders today are…
Determine your own idea of a value price and don't be swayed by the public or pundits.
And any strategy can be a winner if you bet at value odds.
All quotes are from “The Thoughts and Secrets of Successful Punters”
Today's Selection courtesy of Value Backing
4.10 Yarmouth Fulney 1pt win @ 15`2 William Hill BOG