Profit From the Odds That Produce Goals

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money.

If you have something interesting or profitable that you would like to share with readers of the Daily Punt, do send us an email, we are always willing to share winning ideas with our readers.

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The next time you peruse the football betting coupon, pay close attention to the odds. They can sometimes tell a story and provide ready-made clues as to what the bookmakers (or market-makers at Betfair) expect to occur in a given match.

Here are some odds which I have found to produce certain scorelines, or a certain number of goals:

Sub 1.20

1.2 in decimal odds equates to 1/5 in fractional odds.

Any team quoted at under 1.2 in odds (particularly when they are playing at home) equates to goals. (The team will usually score 3 or 4 goals minimum, with a possibility of a win to nil.)

Using a recent weekend, here are some examples of Sub 1.2 odds matches and their resultant score lines.

2.30pm – Dortmund v G Furth – 1.19 home

In this instance, the odds were close. Dortmund did score 3 goals but their opponents managed a consolation goal.

5.30pm – Olympiakos v Kerkira – 1.18 home

Here the 3 goals minimum was nearly reached, but Olympiakos did keep a clean sheet.

6.45pm – Ajax v VVV – 1.13 home

Another 2-0 match and another clean sheet.

7pm – Barcelona v Zaragoza – 1.1 home

Barcelona scored 3 goals minimum, but did concede a consolation goal.

9pm – Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao – 1.17 home

Real Madrid scored 5 goals, and did concede just 1 goal.

These odds give you a framework – a guide around which to work. The simplest way to validate the odds is to look at the head-to-heads. I want to show you the head-to-heads of the two teams which won 2-0.

Olympiakos head-to-heads v Kerkyra – last six matches:

08.04.2012 D1Olympiakos Pireus 0-1 AO Kerkyra
11.12.2011    D1AO Kerkyra 0-4 Olympiakos Pireus
09.01.2011  D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus
11.09.2010  D1Olympiakos Pireus 2-0 AO Kerkyra
22.04.2007 D1Olympiakos Pireus 3-1 AO Kerkyra
02.12.2006 D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus

The clean sheet looks a distinct possibility from the head-to-heads, but Olympiakos have won 2-0 three
times in the last six head-to-heads.

Ajax head-to-heads v Venlo – last six matches:

02.05.2012 D1AFC Ajax 2-0 VVV Venlo
21.08.2011 D1VVV Venlo 2-2 AFC Ajax
20.02.2011 D1AFC Ajax 1-0 VVV Venlo
28.11.2010 D1VVV Venlo 0-2 AFC Ajax
11.04.2010 D1AFC Ajax 7-0 VVV Venlo
20.09.2009 D1VVV Venlo 0-4 AFC Ajax

In the last four head-to-heads, Ajax have only managed to score a maximum of 2 goals.

Compare this with the likes of Real Madrid in their last six meetings against Athletic Bilbao:

02.05.2012 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
22.01.2012 D1Real Madrid 4-1 Athletic Bilbao
09.04.2011 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
20.11.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
08.05.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
16.01.2010 D1Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Madrid

Historically, Real Madrid have scored 5-5-3-4-3 against Ath Bilbao. This is very much in keeping with a quote of 1.17 isn’t it?

So what do you do to make money from this information?

Once you have shortlisted sub 1.20 teams, and validated simply by looking at head-to-heads, then look to find a value bet. Value bets in these instances can include any of the following:

✓✓ Over 4.5 goals, with one eye on trading.

✓✓ The possibility for a player to score a hat-trick (I would limit myself to teams with world-class strikers such as Van Persie, Messi and Ronaldo).

✓✓ Dutching a correct score. Look to start at 3-0.

These correct scores are decently priced, which means you can back up to 3 and still profit.

✓✓ Total goals bet for one team. This is a fairly new market but the odds offered are far more attractive
than the match odds.

This second set of odds usually results in both teams scoring and a possible tight win. The odds in question in this second example are 1.7 (or 4/5 in fractional odds) for the away team.

When you spot these odds for the away side, immediately think:

✓✓ Score draw, most probably 1-1

✓✓ The possibility that if the away side wins, it will be a tight one-goal win: 1-2; 0-1 – that kind of
scoreline. Or a possibility that the home side could win, again by a very, very tight scoreline.

You will recall that these were the kinds of odds I used to create my treble bets, which I then layed at Betfair using their multiples.

Here are some examples:

9.30am – Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v Spartak Moscow – 1.67 away

Both sides scored and 1-1 resulted. The odds here just peeked below 1.7.

3pm – Reading v Everton – 1.86 away

Again, both teams score in this match and Reading only win courtesy of a penalty: another tight match.

3pm – West Brom v Chelsea – 2.04 away

In this match, both teams scored and the home side won a very tight match indeed.

The away odds between 1.7 and just over evens (2.0 decimal) seem to be the ideal odds in which to assume that both sides have a chance of scoring a goal and winning, ideally by 2-1 or 1-2.

How can you profit here?

How about backing 1-1 pre-match, and profiting by trading if a 1-1 arises during the match. Laying the
away side is always an option. Horse racing layers would be delighted at an ability to lay a horse as low as 1.7–2.00 and have a good chance of success.

Why not back both sides to score? Or for you traders, lay the team that scores first? The hope here, of course, is that we reach a 1-1 scoreline rather than a 2-0. And how about those who still play the bookies’ football coupons and the Pools, where score draws are welcome?

Incidentally, for those of you interested in the Football Pools, they now have a dedicated website at http://www.footballpools.com. This is something that piques my interest and I’ll be trying to discover some strategies we can use to profit from this new-look Football Pools.

Today's Selection

Chepstow 1.55 Always Bold – eachway bet – 7/1 Will Hill