Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to next week’s Qatar ‘Glorious’ Goodwood Festival. Plus, I have previewed the best of today's action at Sandown and Leopardstown.

“Glorious” Goodwood is an annual flat racing festival that takes place at Goodwood Racecourse near Chichester in West Sussex. On a sunny day there a few better places to watch flat racing in Britain. Conversely on a wet day there are probably fewer worse places.

Qatar “Glorious” Goodwood Festival Preview

There a three Group 1 races over the five days of the festival. The Goodwood Cup, Sussex Stakes and Nassau Stakes. The Sussex Stakes run over a 1m is the feature race over the five days, but the Goodwood Cup run over 2m often attracts some of the best in the staying division. The race is also an opportunity for the classic generation to take on their older counterparts over a staying trip.

Goodwood Racecourse has a unique and challenging layout

A right handed, sharp track known for its undulating terrain with pronounced gradients and cambers.

It can be a tricky course for a jockey to ride. The bend into the home straight is very sharp one. You don’t want to be too wide on the turn in as a horse has to cover more ground.

You’ll often see in a big fields horses facing meet trouble in the straight especially those who have kept to the fair rail.

Goodwood’s 5f straight course is one the quickest in the country. Whilst the 6f “Stewards Cup Course” is uphill for the first furlong and downhill from then onwards.

The downhill nature of the sprint track means horses race faster than they should have done. In big fields you’ll often see the leaders stopping at the furlong pole and be caught by those runners coming from behind. This can be even more pronounced when the going is soft.

“Glorious” Goodwood Festival Stats

For this analysis I have looked at the last five Qatar Goodwood Festival which contain 180 winners from 2111 runners.

Let’s begin with a few general stats on favourites and the draw.

Clear Favourites – 60 winners from 161 winners 37% +27 96 60%

It’s a decent set of figures for favourite backers and they are performing 11% better than market expectations.

You could improve those numbers by concentrating on those favourites who finished 1^st or 2^nd on their last start – 46 winners from 107 runners 43% +40.52 69 placed 64%

Draw

When analysing the draw, I have sorted them out by draw segment and have just looked at handicap races so the sample sizes are small.

5f

6f

7f

1m/1m 1f

1m 2f

1m 3f+

Draw Verdict:

Despite the small sample sizes some interesting draw stats. In 7f races those runners drawn in the first and last quarter have been underperforming. Over 1m/1m 1f those drawn out wide have struggled to win as they have over 1m 2f. Looking at handicaps between 7f & 1m 2f just 3 winners from 134 runners have been successful from the final quarter of the draw,

I put all the races over 1m 3f in together and those drawn in quarter 1 have underperformed although Secret State did manage to win from stall 2 last year.

Trainers

Here’s a list of trainers with three or more winners at the festival since 2018.

Mark Johnston was the top performing trainer in terms of winners.  However, he’s also had more runners than any other trainer and often had multiple entries in races so identifying the Johnston winners was no easy task.

Mark’s now handed over the licence to son Charlie. It will be interesting to see if he targets the meeting as much as his father did. For what its worth I think he will.

If Charlie does follow the same modus operandi as his father, it’s not easy to find profitable angles for the yard. However, here are few that maybe worth noting.

All but one of the yard’s winners was returned 14/1 & under – Those above are 1 winner from 66 runners -47, 10 placed.

The yards clear favourites are – 6 winners from 13 runners 46% +15.33.

The yards runners in Class 3 races were – 0 winners from 38 runners, 12 placed.

Other trainers worth noting:

Michael Dods – 3 winners from 4 runners +48

John Quinn – 7 winners from 24 runners 29% +33.76.

Finally, a relatively new trainer in Ed Bethall. He had two runners at last year’s festival and they both placed. The family have a history of winners at the festival. Ed’s father James was 2 winners from 7 runners 29% +21 4 placed 57% from 2008 until handing over the licence.

Trainer Verdict:

Good luck if you can find the Charlie Johnson winners. I’ll be keeping an eye out for any runners trained by John Quinn, Michael Dods, and Ed Bethall.

Jockeys

Here’s a list of jockeys with 5+ winners at the festival since 2008.

William Buick, Ryan Moore & Jim Crowley are nicely clear of the rest.

Ten of Buick’s winners have come in races between 1m 2f & 1m 6f – 10 winners from 24 runners 42% +18.1 11, placed. (6 winners from 9 runners +12.3, 7 placed in combination with Charlie Appleby).

Goodwood Micro Angle: Handicaps only

Finally, a simple fun micro system for for handicap races at the meeting.  It focuses on race fit handicappers, who have finished first or second on of their last three starts and had placed at Goodwood at the past.

Yearly breakdown:

There will be plenty of losers, so its not one for the faint hearted. However, the angle has been profitable for the last five seasons. Will it continue to be profitable this year?  

If you’re interested any qualifiers from the system, I will post them up each day next week.

Well, I hope you enjoyed my short dive into the Qatar Goodwood Festival stats and hopefully they’ll be of some use to you.

Thursday Preview

The Racing League gets under way in the evening at Yarmouth. I won’t be having a bet on the card, but you might be surprised to learn that I could tune in.

The best of the real stuff is across the Irish Sea at Leopardstown today. The highlights of an eight race card are the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes (5:12) and Tyros Stakes (5:47). The Group 2 Minstrel Stakes which should have been run at the Curragh on Sunday has also been added to the card.

There’s Listed action at Sandown this afternoon with the Star Stakes (3:15) the feature race of a six race card.

I’ve had a look at all today’s pattern races, and you can read my thoughts below.

Sandown

3:15 – Soprano an impressive winner on racecourse debut at Newmarket improved again when finishing 2 length 3rd of 17 in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. The form of that race looks strong and the step up to 7f should suit the filly. The only concern would be rain softened ground.

Shuwari overcame inexperience to win on her racecourse debut (7f) at Newbury last month. The daughter of New Bay is a useful prospect who is capable of better but may need further to win at this level.

Fallen Angel produced a good turn of foot inside the final furlong to win at Haydock 62 days ago. Another open to further progress. Could be the biggest rival to Soprano but that filly will be tough to beat given she’s thought of a future 1,000 Guineas horse.

Leopardstown

5:12 – Aidan O’Brien has won the Silver Flash five times in the last ten years. Aidan saddles likely long odds on favourite in Ylang Ylang. The daughter of Frankel cost 1,500,000gns as a yearling and she repaid a small amount of the purchase price when making all to win a Curragh maiden (7f) 27 days ago. She’s open to any amount of improvement and looks a potential Group 1 juvenile filly. Already one of the leading fancies for next season’s 1,000 Guineas and provided the ground doesn’t turn to testing she’ll be tough to beat.

Her biggest rival should be Mysteries, trained by Donnacha O'Brien. The daughter of No Nay Never built on the promise of her racecourse debut third behind the smart Matrika when winning a Cork maiden (6f) last month. The step up to 7f should bring out more improvement in her and she’s a worthy rival to the favourite. Whether she can beat Ylang Ylang I’m not so sure, but she can give her a race.

5:47 – Islandsinthestream impressed when winning on racecourse debut at the Curragh last month. There should be plenty more to come from the son of Wootton Bassett and I think he can beat the more experienced Mountain Bear.

6:22 – Romanised Minstrel Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

It’s good to see the Minstrel Stales which was due to be run last Sunday at the Curragh has been switched to this card.  It looks a competitive renewal with 11 set to line-up.

The bookies seem to have priced up the front two in the market correctly.

Zarinsk had Tarawa 1 ¼ lengths back in second when winning a Group 3 here (1m) in May. The former has since bounced back from a below par run in France to win a Group 3 at Fairyhouse 15 days ago. She wasn’t originally among the race entries but the switch to Leopardstown where’s she won twice has clearly proved too tempting for connections.

Tarawa has since gone onto finish a promising 3 length 4^th to stablemate Tahiyra in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. However, she didn’t build on that effort when only 2^nd of 9 in a Listed race at the Curragh 25 days ago. I fancy that Zarinsk can confirm form with Tarawa

Salt Lake City, Power Under Me, Honey Girl and Cosmic Vega can’t be discounted.

Salt Lake City might appreciate the forecast easier underfoot conditions than he faced at the Curragh last time. The same sentiments apply to both Honey Girl and Power Under Me. Of these three Salt Lake City is the one to interest me most.

Real makes plenty of appeal if the ground isn’t too soft

Real Appeal provided the rain hasn’t made the ground to testing makes plenty of appeal. However, he he looks a better horse on a sound surface. A winner of Group 3 and Group here in 2021 for previous trainer Jessica Harrington. Now with Ado McGuinness the 6-year-old was back to form when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 6 in a Group 3 over C&D last time. Sean Foley 3 -7, 4 places on the gelding at Leopardstown is back in the saddle for the time since the switch of yards. Given his very best form has come here and at 12/1 & bigger he’s one to seriously consider if the ground isn’t to soft.

Thursday Selection:

The three juvenile races should prove informative. Soprano can win the Star Stakes at Sandown.

Ylang Ylang could be a special filly and will be tough to beat in the Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown although I do like her main market rival Mysteries.

I’m hopeful that Islandsinthestream can improve again to win the Tyros Stakes.  

In the Minstrel Stakes both Zarinsk and Tarawa have leading claims. Salt Lake City should be seen in a better light back on softer ground and can’t be ruled out for Aidan O’Brien who last won the last two runnings of the race.. If you knew the ground was no worse than good, I would really fancy Real Appeal, but I suspect he won’t get his ground.

Leopardstown

6:22 – Salt Lake City – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John