Hi all,

Inside Sunday’s main piece I’m previewing the Qipco 1000 Guineas.

ITV are covering four races from Newmarket, and one each from Salisbury and Hamilton on 1000 Guineas Day.

I was on Opera Singer at 16/1 ante post for the Qipco 1000 Guineas. However, she’s had a setback and doesn’t run. I remain convinced she would have won this race given the line-up.  Anyway, that’s all yesterday’s fish n chip paper.

Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

The fact that there’s 16 declared runners shows how open this year’s race is. Ante post favourite Fallen Angel was the best of these as a juvenile winning the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh. The daughter of Too Darn Hot should stay a mile as a 3-year-old and has been subject to positive reports from trainer Karl Burke.

I’m taking on Ylang Ylang who flopped behind Fallen Angel in the Moyglare but did bounce back to winning ways in the Group 1 Fillies Mile over C&D on her final juvenile start. A combination of soft ground and very strong early pace helped her in the Fillies Mile. I think she needs 1m 2f + and unless the rain does arrive I don’t think the race will provide enough of a stamina test for her.

Dance Sequence either lacked experience or found the ground on the quick side when neck runner-up to Pretty Crystal in the Nell Gwyn (7f) here last month. We’ll know which it was come 4pm. If it was residual greenness, then she’s got a good chance. Stablemate Cinderella's Dream made it 4 out of 4 when winning the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan last time. It was a win achieved in remarkable circumstances as her saddle slipped saddle which meant her jockey had to ride without irons from halfway. William Buick stays loyal to Dance Sequence and Cinderella's Dream probably needs quicker ground.

Other Contenders

See The Fire was a 1 ¼ length third to Ylang Ylang in the Fillies Mile. She got to the front to early that day and hung to her left between the final two furlongs. If she had stayed straight, she may well have prevailed. Capable of better this season over 1m 2f+ and indeed I see her more as an Oaks filly.  However, she’s in the mix here for the inform Andrew Balding yard.  

Since 2018 four winners have gone off 10/1 or bigger so you can’t rule out a surprise winner. At big odds the one that I like is Elmalka. Elmalka, a winner of Southwell novice last November was a strong finishing ½ length 3^rd of 6 in the Fred Darling Stakes on her seasonal return 15 days ago. Today’s extra furlong will suit the daughter of Kingman who’s open to improvement and looks Group filly in the making if building on her Newbury performance.

I wouldn’t be shocked if French challenger Ramatuelle was victorious she had high class juvenile form. However, she can be keen in her races and may not stay the mile. Irish challenger Porta Fortuna is another with high class juvenile form who won the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes here (6f) last September. Seemed to stay a mile in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. However, it was rattling quick ground that day, and a Santa Anita mile isn’t a stamina test like Newmarket’s straight mile.

Qipco 1000 Guineas Verdict:

Fallen Angel is the right favourite and isn't being given enough credit by the pundits. See The Fire is a filly I like and should do better as a 3-year-old but may need further.  I think Dance Sequence is the best of the Godolphin fillies, but I think she’ll need ease in the ground. At very big odds I think the relatively inexperienced Elmalka can get into the money.

If you want my Qipco 1000 Guineas Day selections and for the rest of the month you can get them here.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

John