Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m going to preview the race of the season which takes place on Saturday.

Ascot: King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes

First run in 1951, in honour of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth, the parents of the late Queen Elizabeth II. The “King George” quickly established itself as one most prestigious and significant flat races in the world.

The mid-summer highlight of the British flat racing calendar. A race where the Derby winner would often take on the older horses in “Clash of the Generations”.

It wouldn’t be controversial to say that this century the race has lost plenty of its gloss. Often attracting uncompetitive small fields with one standout contender.  That’s what makes this year’s race so intriguing because there’s no outstanding horse dominating the division.

Many great racehorses have won the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes since it was inaugurated.

Here a few of them:

Nijinsky (1970)

Mill Reef (1971)

Brigadier Gerard (1972)

The Minstrel (1977)

Shergar (1981)

Dancing Brave (1986)

Mtoto (1988)

Nashwan (1989)

Galileo (2001)

Enable (2017, 2019 & 2020).

I missed off Teenoso only because I wanted to show you his 1984 success when he beat what I think was the strongest field ever assembled for the race.

Trends:

Taking a quick delve into the race trends since 2008 which contain 15 winners from 110 runners, 36 placed.

Odd SP: 10/1 & bigger are 1 winner from 52 runners -33, 5 placed

Last year’s winner Pyledriver (18/1) was the first horse since Swain (1997) to be returned at double figure odds.

Draw Segment: 1^st Quarter – 0 winners from 26 runners, 6 placed (There should have been just over 3 winners).

The effect of the draw in races at 1m 4f at Ascot has been mentioned by me in the past. Despite the small fields the race attracts the draw seems to have been significant.

Stall 1 – 0 winners from 14 runners, 3 placed

Stall 2 – 1 winner from 14 runners, 3 placed.

You must go back to Harbinger (2010) to find a winner that came out of the lowest two stalls.  We’ll see on Saturday if that holds up once more.

There maybe some other trends but I don’t think their significant given the sample sizes involved.

Contenders:

It’s not often these days that a Group 1 race can get my juices going but this one has. Fifteen were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. That number will drop at final declarations. They include Epsom Derby & Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin and Epsom Derby runner-up King Of Steel.  

In addition to Auguste Rodin. Aidan O’Brien has also left in Luxembourg, Adelaide River, Point Lonsdale, Bolshoi Ballet and Broome.

Last year’s Derby Hero Desert Crown was also left in the race. As were Coronation Cup winner Emily Upjohn and last year’s Coronation Cup winner Hukum. Plus, the likes of Westover and French challenger Simca Mille.

Looking at the Official Ratings shows how competitive the race is.

Pyledriver 124

Auguste Rodin 123

Desert Crown 123

Emily Upjohn 123

Hukum 122

Luxembourg 122

King Of Steel 120

Westover 119

Broome 118

Hamish 117

Deauville Legend 116

Adelaide River 114

Just 10lb separates 12 of the entries and I haven’t included the French challenger. The closeness of the ratings underlines why the race is so competitive.

Ladbrokes can’t split Auguste Rodin (7/2) & King Of Steel (7/2) at the top of the betting.

The recent rain and has seen Hukum’s odds cut to 4/1. Emily Upjohn is a best priced 9/2 with Ladbrokes.

Desert Crown who is likely be ridden by William Buick is a best priced 6/1. Meanwhile last year’s winner Pyledriver is 13/2.

Ladbrokes and the other bookies think the winner when will come from the above six runners. Luxembourg is 16/1 with Ladbrokes as is Westover.

Before the rain arrived I though Simca Millie was a bit overpriced at 33/1 with Bet365 but he seemingly prefers quicker ground.

No way Hamish should be 100/1

The outsider of the 15 is Hamish at 100/1 with Bet365 & Paddy Power. I’m not sure connections will throw the dice and run him but if they do, he’s no 100/1 chance more like 25/1.

On official ratings he’s only got 7lb to find with Pyledriver. Granted he’s probably better over 1m 6f but he does like soft ground and is a previous C&D winner.

Ok, the likes of Auguste Rodin, King Of Steel, Hukum and Desert Crown could prove to classy for the 7-year-old over 1m 4f but his present odds are far to big.

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Verdict:

If there’s soft in the going description Hukum should be favourite. It’s as simple as that.

Auguste Rodin is likely to get the strong pace he needs, and it will be interesting to see if he can confirm Derby form with King Of Steel. After Epsom I thought King Of Steel would beat Auguste Rodin the next time they met. Now I’m leaning toward the O’Brien horse confirming form.

This year’s renewal is deeper than when Pyledriver won 12 months ago but he does keeps surprising me.

Desert Crown might be a 4-year-old, but he remains open to open to improvement and there shouldn’t be much between him and Hukum on their running at Sandown in May. He’s become a bit of a forgotten horse for me and at the prices I’m leaning towards him.

That leaves Hamish and if the weather forecast is right, he should get his ground. A 100/1 is a bit of an insult for a horse who can get into the frame at huge odds if he gets his favoured ground.

One thing I will be keeping an eye on is the draw. The bigger the field, the more likely I’d want to avoid any horse drawn in stall 1 & 2.

Wednesday Preview

The best of Wednesday’s action is across the Irish Sea at Naas. Where the Listed Arqana Irish EBF Marwell Stakes (5.45) and Yeomanstown Stud Irish EBF Stakes (6.55) are the highlights of an eight -race card. It’s those races that come under the microscope today.

Naas

5:15 – Marwell Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f

Alice Haynes brought the winners first prize back to England 12 months ago. And William Haggas bids to do the same with Indispensable. The daughter of Ten Sovereigns finished third to Soprano on her racecourse debut and won a Ripon maiden (5f) two starts later. Seemed to fail for stamina when a 12 length 4^th of 9 in a Listed race (6f) at Newmarket last time. Haggas has an exceptional record with the runners he brings over to Ireland. Since 2017 he’s had 9 winners from 25 runners 36% +34.06 12 placed 48% and is a perfect 2-2 at Naas. The drop back to the minimum trip is a positive but I have no idea how she will go on soft ground.

The best of the home team looks to be Storm Miami who overcame in experience to win over C&D on racecourse debut 18 days ago. She encounters softer ground here but is open to further improvement.

Aidan O’Brien saddles two in Brighter who won on racecourse debut at Dundalk in April. Another who should be capable of better. O’Brien also saddles Cherry Blossom seemingly the pick of Ryan Moore. The daughter of No Nay Never makes her racecourse debut here and it could be significant that she’s being pitched into Listed company. Trainer is 2-6 +10.5 with his juvenile debutants in pattern races on debut.

6:20 – Yeomanstown Stud Irish EBF Stakes (Listed Race)  – 6f

Lady Onyx 3^rd of 7 in a Carlisle Listed race (7f) last time might benefit for the drop back to 6f. She’s the least experienced of the 11 runners and looks capable of going close once more.

English challenger Radio Goo Goo, a five time winner already this season, wasn’t disgraced when 3 ½ length 7th of 10 to Swingalong in the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York 12 days ago. A winner on soft ground in the spring she’s a serious contender.  

Fozzy Stack saddles Aussie Girl and My Eyes Adore You. The first named posted a career best on RPR’s when ½ length 2^nd of 20 in the valuable Scurry Handicap. Provided this race doesn’t come to quick the 3-year-old should be bang there.

My Eyes Adore You put in a seasonal best when a ½-length third of 6 at Fairyhouse 47 days ago. The 4-year-old’s bets RPR came when a length 4^th of 10 in a Group 3 over C&D last August. A reproduction of that effort would likely be good enough to get her into the places.

Wednesday Selection:

Whilst you must respect newcomer Cherry Blossom, I’m going to take a chance with the Haggas filly Indispensable. I can see anther English challenger Radio Goo Goo going close in the (6:20) although I have a slight preference for My Eyes Adore You provided the ground doesn't get too testing.

Naas

5:15 – Indispensable – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

In tomorrow’s column I’m going to be looking at some ‘Glorious’ Goodwood stats.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John