Good morning all,

The last of the previews of the big races at Cheltenham looks at the Ryanair and Champion Chase, the two races tying in with Energumene a likely runner in the Champion Chaserather than the Ryanair, but with Willie, you never know until declarations…

I’ve deliberately left these two until last as the fields for both aren’t set in stone by any means, and if Energumene does step up to the Ryanair trip rather than take on Shishkin again, the Champion Chase will look very different, and the places suddenly become up for grabs.

Is there a good reason for thinking Willie Mullins will indeed step him up in trip? I’ll say this much – at the start of last season, the rumours were going around about Energumene being some sort of superstar as a novice and that he would be aimed, not at the Arkle as might have been expected, but at the RSA. It was only when they discovered that he also has the speed for two miles that he was kept to the trip, and it was a real shame we never got to see him at Cheltenham last year. He’s very strong at 2m, but so is Shishkin, and there lies the dilemma.

Possibly the best hope of getting Shiskin beat in the Champion might lie in a messy pace, but that in turn hampers the chance of Energumene himself, and leaves the door open for others. So do they up him in trip to the Ryanair? Willie, of course, has the hot favourite for that in Allaho, but they are with different owners and that makes a decision on where to go with them slightly more tricky. How about Allaho to the Gold Cup (where Willie must surely know Al Boum Photo will be playing for a place at best) and Energumene for the Ryanair as a result? Stranger things have happened. Then what price Energumene for the Ryanair, 1-2? It makes the general 5-2 NRNB worth chancing that that set of events occurs, however (very) unlikely that may be.

Allaho really does look a cut above them in the Ryanair and given Willie’s penchant for the path of least resistance with his changes, I do think he’ll end up in the race unless something happens between now and the Festival to cause a cabinet reshuffle. There’s little value in backing him now as on the day, the books will want to get him, and you’ll get evens and possibly even slightly better if the first couple of jollies on the day have been beaten. Neither can I see any point in taking a swing at something each-way, with many of those towards the top in the market likely to go elsewhere and again, we’ll likely as not get an extra place on the day anyway. Shan Blue makes some appeal but I need to see the Skelton yard form turn around pretty quickly – it has been the worst I can remember for some time at present (as I write this, under 40% running to form) and he’s got three weeks to try and turn things back in their favour.

Tornado Flyer, third in the race last year as he ran on through the beaten ones, is another that will surely be better off here than the Gold Cup. I’d have real reservations about him getting the full Gold Cup trip but this test suits his run style well, and it wouldn’t be hard to see him hitting the frame again. However, Willie’s updates from earlier in the week suggest the Gold Cup at this stage, so if you’re backing him now, make sure it’s NRNB.

Chatham Street Lad at 50s isn’t the worst 50 poke you’ll ever back either, particularly if this turn in the weather keeps up for the next three weeks. It was just a shade too quick for him in the Marsh last year and his jumping suffered as a result, but we’ve seen what he can do when he gets his favoured soft ground around here. That 50s is with Unibet, and if he doesn’t line up you’ve done your money, so I’m splitting the stake and having half with them and half NRNB at 33s.

Back to the Champion Chase.

If the big two line up then it’ll frighten off most of the opposition and the race will make no appeal as a betting contest, with one of the two likely to win and you’re only playing for one place if the other finishes second. I suppose you could argue that, if, say, only four or five are going to line up then you’re getting some value now, but there’s a lot of guesswork involved.

I find it interesting Dan Skelton hasn’t removed Allmankind as yet, despite consistently saying Aintree would be the target, and I suspect he’s in there purely for the purposes of the race falling apart between now and March. He arguably shaped like the second best horse in the Arkle last year, with Captain Guinness hardly helping his cause taking him on up front, and he’s probably the fourth/fifth best in the line up as it stands. 40-1 NRNB to small each-way stakes for me.

Today's selection comes from Warwick, where as much as Coolvalla should be favourite for the opener at 1.20, Tarks Hill wasn't that far behind him at Fontwell and shapes like a stamina test will suit. I can't see how one is 6-4 and the other 20-1, given we're getting four places, and Tarks Hill each-way makes plenty of appeal in a race low on potential winners.

Today's selection – Tarks Hill (each-way Skybet, 4 places) 1.15 Warwick

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.