Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the best of this evening’s action at Sandown.
With the Epsom Derby Festival just a week away, it's the perfect time to examine the Derby and Oaks contenders. I’ll look at the Derby today and the Oaks in Friday’s column.
Epsom Derby
City Of Troy, a flop in the 2000 Guineas, is now the 2/1 Derby favourite. Punters hope for a repeat of last year when Aidan O’Brien turned around Auguste Rodin’s poor Guineas performance to win the Derby.
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With a seemingly weak field, Aidan might just work his magic again and you can see why. Two of his major rivals have been ruled. Arabian Crown won’t run due to a setback. Stablemate Hidden Law sadly diedafter an impressive win in the Chester Vase. Easy Dante winner Economics isn’t likely to run in the race either.
City Of Troy’s rivals are disappearing faster than a rat up a drainpipe. So yes of course last season’s top juvenile can win the Derby. Would I back him at less than 4/1? Not a chance.
What’s left?
I liked Ambiente Friendly’s success in the Lingfield Oaks Trial but rather bizarrely jockey Callum Shepherd has been replaced by Rab Havlin. Nothing against Rab who is a better jockey than his critics suggest but I don’t think it’s a jockey uplift. I liked his claims at 10/1, at 5/1 I can now pass.
City Of Troy’s stablemate Los Angeles (7/1) is unbeaten in three starts. He was a decisive winner of the Derby trial at Leopardstown this month. There should be more improvement to come from the son of Camelot stepped up to 1m 4f but there’ll need to be.
Ancient Wisdom (16/1) runner-up to Economics in the Dante has a chance but needs soft ground. That leaves Macduff (16/1) and Bellum Justum (33/1). Macduff is bred to improve for step up to 1m 4f and was a solid runner-up Arabian Crown in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his seasonal return. He does want better ground and I think the Classic Trial was one of this season’s better Derby Trials.
Bellum Justum proved his ability over the track when winning the Blue Riband Trial here in April. There’s a good chance he’ll stay 1m 4f and he’s got a chance if he does.
Given the potential line-up on June 1st you can see why some like Tom Segal (Pricewise) have suggested that London Gold Cup winner King’s Gambit should be supplemented for the Derby. He got the same RPR for winning the London Gold Cup as Ambiente Friendly received for winning the Lingfield Derby Trial and the latter is second favourite for the Derby.
Thursday Racing
The most valuable evening meeting of the flat season is staged at Sandown. There are two Group 3 contests the Henry II Stakes (7:07) and the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (7.37) and two Listed contests on a six-race card. Despite the good prize money on offer none of the four pattern races has attracted more than seven runners. Indeed, the Brigadier Gerard Stakes sees one of the weakest renewals of the race in recent seasons.
Of the four pattern races the Listed Heron Stakes (8:12) is the most interesting. Again just seven runners but this race includes four horses that are open to further improvement.
The ground had eased at Sandown too good to soft on Wednesday afternoon and could soften up further.
Source: Racing Post.
The rain has come at the right time for Royal Rhyme in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.
Caius Chorister To Land Henry II
In the Henry II Stakes (7:07) Sweet William third in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot find himself the early bird favourite (2/1). He needed that run but he isn’t the heartiest of battlers and the visor replaces the blinkers which tells you all need to know. Caius Chorister was 1 ½ lengths in front Sweet William in second in the Sagaro. That was a career best form the mare on her first start at two miles and she should be favourite. Chesspiece is interesting stepping up to two miles for the first time and could be capable of improvement at the new distance.
Seven juveniles are set to contest the Listed National Stakes (6:37). Hawaiian overcame greenness to win at Newbury on his racecourse debut at Newbury last month. There should be more to come from the colt. A neck separated Enchanting Empress and Rock Hunter when the pair were first and second at Ascot 22 days ago. There won’t be much between the pair and they look the biggest rivals to Hawaiian.
8:12 – Listed Heron Stakes – 1m
Ice Max has returned to action a much improved 3-year-old winning at Bath on seasonal return and improving further to win at Musselburgh last month. Step up from handicap company but worth his place in the line-up and on Official Ratings (OR’s) the one to beat.
Balmacara is also unbeaten on both this season’s starts. Both wins have come on soft ground, so the rain won’t inconvenience the gelding. Has 10lb to find with Ice Max on OR’s but is open to improvement for the step up to a mile. One to seriously consider on rain softened ground.
Kikkuli is bred to be champion being a half-brother to Frankel. The son of Kingman made a winning seasonal return at Newmarket last month. The step up to a mile should elicit more improvement and provided the ground doesn’t get too soft has to be of interest. Ryan Moore stays in the saddle.
Almaqam overcame inexperience to win a Yarmouth maiden 21 days ago. The son of Lope De Vega has several Group 1 entries and looks the sort to do improve with racing. Another to consider in an intriguing contest.
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Thursday Selection:
Sandown
7:07 – Caius Chorister – 5/2 (minimum odds).
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John