Sir Mark Prescott Winning Angle?

So following on from yesterday, today I'm going to have a closer look at the stats for Sir Mark Prescott's runners is handicaps.

I think I mentioned yesterday that the 10 year stats show that you could've just backed all SMP runners in handicaps and made a small profit. But there would have been a lot of years where a small loss was made (er lost!). The 10 year profit is 1.36% return on investment.

So my first question is how does he do across the different age groups?

Juveniles, 2 year olds, are a different proposition that 3 and 4 year olds and once you get past 4 year olds a horse is either fully exposed or has some sort of difficulty.

Here are the figures for all handicap runners broken down by age…

For today I'm going to look closer at the 3 year olds, they have the higher volume and the higher strike rate and I think if you are working to get a horse handicapped well that is where the action will be.

Although we started looking at this as a distance mover angle, I can't get a handle on a distance move angle that makes sense to me. I can find change in distance stats that make a profit, but they don't make sense to me.

So I've looked at race distance for these runners to see where SMP does best and this data clearly points to races of more than a mile.

So now focusing on 3 year olds in handicaps running over more than a mile I decided to look at more traditional form positives. So looked at horses that had run over today's distance previously.

Here I found some good news, with the strike rate now up to 39.46% and the return on investment at 17.81%.

A previous course run is a positive also, although we start to get far too few bets now, but the strike rate goes up to 50%.

Finally for now I added in the 4 year olds to see if the same rules would apply to them and the strike rate dropped a little but the profit went up fractionally. but we get the benefit of doubling the number of bets.

So to recap this is what I've ended up with…

Trainer = Sir Mark Prescott

Race Type = Handicaps

Age = 3 – 4

Distance = 1 mile 1/2 furlong or further

Horse has a distance run.

Runs = 392
Wins = 140
Strike Rate = 35.71
Profit = 70.61
ROI = 18.01

I'm not sure I would just back this blindly, but I will be looking out for them and adding them to my shortlist for consideration.

If you think there is anything else I should have looked at or some other angle you think I should explore then let me know in the comments.

Today's Selection

Sandown 3.05 Feedyah – win bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Sky Bet